The warmer it gets, the less each additional watt per metre
actually warms the surface.
Not exact matches
At least part of the answer may be that climate measurements are underestimating the amount of
surface warming actually taking place.
The new data
actually shows more
warming than has been observed on the
surface, though still slightly less than projected in most climate models.
I disagree as to whether this is a «key» issue for attribution studies, but as to when anthropogenic
warming began, the answer is
actually quite simple — when we started altering the atmosphere and land
surface at climatically relevant scales.
So while the troposphere does
warm as a function of increasing GHGs, the maximum change is not at the
surface, but
actually in the mid-troposhere.
The IPCC purports to have a highly confident explanation for the
warming since 1950, but it was only during the period 1976 - 2000 when the global
surface temperatures
actually increased.
We do not know what the MOC has
actually been doing for lack of data, so the authors diagnose the state of the MOC from the sea
surface temperatures — to put it simply: a
warm northern Atlantic suggests strong MOC, a cool one suggests weak MOC (though it is of course a little more complex).
«Somewhat counter-intuitively, a land — sea
surface warming ratio greater than unity during transient climate change is
actually not mainly a result of the differing thermal inertias of land and ocean, but primarily originates in the differing properties of the
surface and boundary layer (henceforth BL) over land and ocean (Manabe et al. 1991; Sutton et al. 2007; Joshi et al. 2008 (henceforth JGW08), Dong et al. 2009) as well as differing cloud feedbacks (Fasullo 2010; Andrews et al. 2010).»
(1) Most of the
warming would
actually occur near the
surface in areas with shallow cold dry air masses, such as in Siberia and northern Canada where it would not have a large effect.
The paleoclimate record (8.2 kyr, and earlier «large lake collapses») shows a dramatic drop in
surface temperatures for a substantial period of time when the ocean circulation shuts off or changes, but is that
actually what would be expected under these
warming conditions?
I still don't understand the fixation on proving that CO2 causes global
warming, when basically all
surface heat is
actually derived from the sun.
As far as I understand it, hurricanes
actually warm the deeper layers (though they do temporarily cool the
surface which adjusts through air - sea exchange very quickly after the storm has passed).
As for Pluto, I
actually know of a few articles (a little small to make a consensus) that assesses plutonian atmosphere is thickening, presumably showing a
warming of its
surface.
Actually to reach a new, higher equilibrium temperature, the Earth
surface (including oceans) must
warm and thus the radiative budget MUST be unbalanced, less radiation must be emitted in space compared to the (unchanged) incoming solar radiation.
On a related note... is it true that the «margin of error» for the «global
surface temperature» is
actually larger than the net
warming in the 20th century?
Stratospheric cooling accompanied by
surface warming is
actually PREDICTED by GHG model yet GW deniers present the stratospheric cooling part as «proof» that global
warming was NOT happening!!
Its hard to see how the oceans can be
warming dramatically due to anthropogenic causes if the sea
surface temperature (controlled for ENSO, ENSO afteraffects etc) is
actually relatively stable.
The author's points on non-linearity and time delays are
actually more relevant to the discussion in other presentations when I talked about whether the climate models that show high future sensitivities to CO2 are consistent with past history, particularly if
warming in the
surface temperature record is exaggerated by urban biases.
I am finding that the more I read the more I come toward the conclusion that we can not
actually tell with reasonable certainty whether increased CO2 has or has not
warmed the Earth
surface.
Although he doesn't
actually come out and say it, Evans suggests that the global
warming trend in the
surface temperature record is an artifact caused by the urban heat island (UHI) effect:
If you look from the
surface of the Earth right up into the stratosphere, 20 miles above the
surface of the Earth, what we've
actually observed in weather balloon measurements and satellite measurements is this complex pattern of
warming low down and cooling up high.
An even more worrisome result is that the adjustment procedure for one of the popular
surface temperature datasets
actually increases the temperature of the rural (i.e. best) stations to match and even exceed the more urbanized (i.e. poor) stations... the adjustment process took the spurious
warming of the poorer stations and spread it throughout the entire set of stations and even magnified it.
Second, I haven't said that «global mean (
surface) temperatures aren't
actually a measure of global
warming.»
It was only when «global
warming» stopped that he and others started saying global mean (
surface) temperatures weren't
actually a measure of global
warming.
As evident in the figures the near
surface air temperatures are
actually warmer over the Arctic Ocean (by over 1 °C in large areas) when the sea ice absorbs solar radiation and transfers some of this energy as sensible heat back into the atmosphere.
It follows that we do not know that the post 1850
warming shown in the
surface models
actually exists.
The various kinds of evidence examined by the panel suggest that the troposphere
actually may have
warmed much less rapidly than the
surface from 1979 into the late 1990s, due both to natural causes (e.g., the sequence of volcanic eruptions that occurred within this particular 20 - year period) and human activities (e.g., the cooling of the upper part of the troposphere resulting from ozone depletion in the stratosphere).
Then, especially when there is excessive cloud cover over the oceans, the Sun's energy absorbed above the clouds can
actually make its way down to the ocean
surface (and below)
warming the oceans by non-radiative processes, not by direct solar radiation which mostly passes through the thin
surface layer and could barely raise the mean temperature of an asphalt paved Earth above -35 C.
The attempt to involve «fluorocarbons» and other superfluous «concepts» is based still in the misinterpretations of Energy prevalent within «greenhouse science» as still the Energy incident to the
surface, persistently within the Visible and Lower UV spectrum, has NOT been observed to alter in any manner sufficiently significant to cause either «
warming» or «cooling» in interaction with the materials
actually present both within the atmosphere, or on the planetary
surface.
To consider the claims of «greenhouse
warming» from one arena of SCIENCE then, if you also look at the atmospheric absorbance of energy (see link below), you will see how relevant the behavior of atmospheric water
actually is in shaping the scavenging of IrR (especially Microwave Spectrum) energy BEFORE
surface incidence is achieved.
They
actually say something different:» For example, most mid-latitude studies show that the heat island intensity (the difference between the temperature of the
warmest location in the city and the background rural value) of the near
surface air layer reaches its maximum a few hours after sunset on calm.
By trapping heat lower down and
warming the
surface of the Earth, greenhouse gases
actually cool the stratosphere.
Not only are all climate engineering elements highly toxic, but by chemically nucleating sea
surfaces in the polar regions the climate engineers are
actually preventing rapidly
warming seas from releasing their heat.
Because lapse rate (particularly in the tropics) should decrease under
warming conditions (this is
actually the most important negative feedback), the troposphere should
warm faster than the
surface.
Factor in the fact that soils amd water are at least ~ 1000 times more dense than air and the idea that gases can heat
warmer surfaces like soils and especially water whilst most of the atmosphere is
actually much colder just seems - well — ludicrous.
Warmists change definitions to suit themselves — reduction in the rate of cooling becomes
warming, the
surface of the Earth is not
actually the
surface, the temperature is not
actually the temperature, the top of the atmosphere is not the top of the atmosphere, and so on.
The main problem with the whole proposition of a «raised ERL» mechanism of
surface warming is that no planet holding an atmosphere
actually emits its heat to space from some particular level or some specified temperature
surface.
You most obviously have not noticed that even according to the Book of
Warm,
surface temperatures are not
actually rising!
The frequent refrain «no
warming since 1998» relies on a double cherry - pick: First off, by choosing 1998, the hottest year ever in the satellite record, as a starting point and, secondly, by disregarding the more reliable measurements of the temperature at the Earth's
surface where we
actually live.
The combined effect of all these changes is
actually to reduce the rate of
surface warming over the past 100 years compared to what we see in the raw temperature data.
Actually, as a noted in the post about Chen and Tung (2014) at my blog... http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/08/21/will-the-next-el-nino-bring-an-end-to-the-slowdown-in-global-
surface-
warming/... which was also cross posted at WUWT, the vast majority of the
warming of the
surface of the global oceans during the satellite era is associated with the upward steps (staircases) caused by the residuals from the 1986/87/88, the 1997/98 and the 2009/10 El Nino events.
And the thinner the ice, the easier it is
actually to move it by winds, and the easier it is to be melted by the underneath
warmer ocean and above
surface air temperature.
I found it to be in the model ball park (perhaps a bit larger,
actually) which implied a large
warming bias in the
surface data, a large cooling bias in the satellite data, some less large combination of those two, or an unknown real climactic effect on lapse rate variation that only operates on the long term and is absent from current models:
Despite concerns over global
warming, scientists have discovered something that may have
actually limited the impact of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in recent years by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the
surface of the Earth.
Other characteristics of the Earth will affect the net position such as the distribution of the land and sea
surfaces but given the predominance of ocean
surfaces and the fact that most energy comes in at the equator which is mostly oceanic then it seems most likely that the net global effect of more greenhouse gases is
actually a miniscule cooling rather than a miniscule
warming.
Anyone remember, when Spencer's UAH data showed supposedly no
warming of the lower and mid troposphere, which was used by AGW - «Skeptics» back then to claim that global
warming claims based on the
surface temperature data were wrong, but turned out to be
actually a problem with Spencer's own retrieval algorithm (Fu et al., Nature 2004, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02524)?
But it
actually makes sense: El Ninos raise atmospheric temps because a deep pool of
warm water in the western Pacific gets spread out over a larger area, raising sea
surface temperatures over a big chunk of the Pacific.
I hypothesize that it is
actually the NOAA and HadCRUT4 data, which have some cool bias due to polar amplification of the
surface warming in the Arctic and the smaller coverage of the Arctic regions by latter data sets.
According to UAH data, the
surface is
actually warming a bit faster than the lower atmosphere.
But there is also the problem that GH
warming should
actually be at a faster rate in the troposphere than at the
surface (according to IPCC), and this clearly doesn't seem to be the case.