Lean / Rind (2008) and Foster / Rahmsdorf (2011) have shown that the 00: s has the same trend as the 80: s and 90: s once
you adjust for volcanos, sun and ENSO.
Not exact matches
If the warming is steady after
adjusting for ENSO,
volcanoes and solar cycles, does the additional correction
for the Arctic data gap by Cowtan & Way mean that the warming after these adjustments has even accelerated?
Red: data after
adjusting for ENSO,
volcanoes and solar activity by a multivariate correlation analysis.
This is a coincidence and you are only analyzing over the thirty year satellite era but viewing your
Adjusted GISS LOTI data
for 60S - 60N with Secondary
Volcano Adjustment in figure 28, the rate I noticed given in the equation of 1/4 ºC / century matches nearly exactly what you get in the trend of the 350 year long record kept in good old central England with little Pacific influence.
I took the hemispheric surface temperature data that were
adjusted for ENSO and
volcanoes and further
adjusted them with the datasets that were intended to illustrate the secondary effects of ENSO.
It also fails to account
for the agreement between the inverted NINO3.4 data and the GISS LOTI data that's been
adjusted for ENSO and
volcanoes.
DIVIDING THE GLOBE IN TWO HELPS IDENTIFY THE REASONS
FOR THE UPWARD STEPS IN THE GISS LOTI DATA To help illustrate the reasons for the upward shifts in the ENSO - and Volcano - adjusted GISS LOTI data (Figure 4), let's divide the data into two subsets split at 2
FOR THE UPWARD STEPS IN THE GISS LOTI DATA To help illustrate the reasons
for the upward shifts in the ENSO - and Volcano - adjusted GISS LOTI data (Figure 4), let's divide the data into two subsets split at 2
for the upward shifts in the ENSO - and
Volcano -
adjusted GISS LOTI data (Figure 4), let's divide the data into two subsets split at 20N.
Figure 11: Observed annual global temperature, unadjusted (pink) and
adjusted for short - term variations due to solar variability,
volcanoes, and ENSO (red) as in Foster and Rahmstorf (2011).
I believe the version you used here was the reconstruction assembled
for the
volcano paper without the variance -
adjusting transform.
The other is that I've corrected
for more than just el Niño; I've
adjusted for solar variations and volcanic aerosols too, so my correction removes the 1992 dip which was because of the eruption of the Mt. Pinatubo
volcano.
In other words, any deviations from an unchanging linear warming trend are explained by the influence of ENSO,
volcanoes and solar variability... It is worthy of note that
for all five
adjusted data sets, 2009 and 2010 are the two hottest years on record... All five data sets show statistically significant warming even
for the time span from 2000 to the present.»