As for man - made aerosols, 2 facts aid the interpretation of the limits
of aerosol change in the 1910 to 1945 period.
Moreover, aerosols adjust rapidly to a changing climate, so it is logical to include natural
aerosol changes in the category of fast feedbacks.
Near - global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to
stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about — 0.1 W / m2, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred.
Scientists have some idea of
how aerosols change a cloud's inner workings but the microphysics of charge separation and lightning generation are still not fully understood.
The low estimates of climate sensitivity by Chylek and Lohmann (2008) and Schmittner et al. (2011), ~ 2 °C for doubled CO2, are due in part to their inclusion of natural
aerosol change as a climate forcing rather than as a fast feedback (as well as the small LGM - Holocene temperature change employed by Schmittner et al., 2011).»
«There is nothing inherently wrong with
defining aerosol changes to be a forcing, but it is practically impossible to accurately determine the aerosol forcing because it depends sensitively on the geographical and altitude distribution of aerosols, aerosol absorption, and aerosol cloud effects for each of several aerosol compositions.
Also, the PNNL - NOAA study team found that
adding aerosols changes the amount of rain falling from clouds, which is an important result because changes in rainfall and other climate variables may have even larger impacts than changes in temperature alone.
The measurements were made in central Europe where the GCMs claim the largest long -
term aerosol changes occurred.
We also use five - member ensembles of simulations with greenhouse gas changes only (GHG), volcanic and solar irradiance changes only (NAT), and
aerosol changes only (AER) over the period 1850 — 2010.»
NASA's P - 3 research plane begins flights this month through both clouds and smoke over the South Atlantic Ocean to understand how tiny airborne particles
called aerosols change the properties of clouds and how they influence the amount of incoming sunlight the clouds reflect or absorb.
It remains unclear how much greenhouse gases contributed to the rise in the 20th and 21st centuries; (4) The climate of the 19th century was far from ideal, being considerably colder than many people in mid-latitudes would prefer; (5) Global climate models still suffer from great uncertainty in regard to how clouds, humidity and
aerosols change spatially and temporally in an era of increasing greenhouse gases; (6) No one knows how warm it will get by the end of the 21st century.
However, were the clear - sky calculations to use the aerosol fields for these two time periods, then the difference in cloud forcing, All - sky (2000)- Clear - sky (2000) vs All - sky (1850)- Clear - sky (1850), would include the influence of
aerosol changes on the clear - sky (cloud free) fluxes.
NASA's P - 3 research plane begins flights this month through both clouds and smoke over the South Atlantic Ocean to understand
how aerosols change the properties of clouds.
That decreasing aerosols account for two - thirds of the observed warming might suggest that other factors like the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (combined with
anthropogenic aerosol changes) made a relatively modest net contribution to the warming (and by implication to observed trends in hurricane activity).
Near - global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric
aerosol changes over this period of about — 0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred.
As the seawater changed and bacteria levels increased, the composition of
the aerosols changed in ways that reduced their ability to form clouds.
They are working to understand how
the aerosols change their physical properties when exposed to different environmental conditions and the ensuing chemical reactions.
Forcing changes of similar magnitude, due to water vapour variations, are measurable as regional temperature changes in Europe, see Philipona, but
aerosol changes are not...
«
Aerosols change the results in small but significant ways,» said Ward.
«the empirical paleoclimate estimate of climate sensitivity is inherently more accurate than model - based estimates because of the difficulty of simulating cloud changes (NYTimes, 2012),
aerosol changes, and aerosol effects on clouds.»
CO2 is increasing faster, but CH4 has stabilised, and CFCs are falling faster,
aerosol changes are potentially important but not very well characterised.