«There is nothing inherently wrong with defining aerosol changes to be a forcing, but it is practically impossible to accurately determine the aerosol forcing because it depends sensitively on the geographical and altitude distribution of aerosols, aerosol absorption, and
aerosol cloud effects for each of several aerosol compositions.
First I say it's cr @p but Jimmy wants to waffle on about what I assume is the negative
aerosol cloud effect being -0.55 W / m2 plus or minus something huge.
Not exact matches
Scientists can measure how much energy greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but what eludes precise definition is how much other factors — the response of
clouds to warming, the cooling role of
aerosols, the heat and gas absorbed by oceans, human transformation of the landscape, even the natural variability of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that
effect.
The small
aerosols need to grow nearly a million times in mass in order to have an
effect on
clouds.
Aerosols can also have big
effects on
clouds, for instance making them brighter so that they reflect more sunlight back into space.
Besides SSCE, scientists have also been investigating stratospheric sulfur injections — firing sun - reflecting
aerosols into the air, similar to the cooling
effect after a volcanic eruption — and cirrus
cloud thinning, where you thin the top level of
clouds, which have a warming
effect on the planet.
By absorbing heat,
aerosols can evaporate nearby
cloud droplets — making the
cloud less reflective and compounding the heating
effect.
Mission leaders were relieved and eager to begin their studies of
cloud and haze
effects, which «constitute the largest uncertainties in our models of future climate — that's no exaggeration,» says Jens Redemann, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, and the principal investigator for ObseRvations of
Aerosols above CLouds and their IntEractionS (ORACLES).
Still other
effects — which primarily promote cooling — occur when the
aerosols begin mixing into a
cloud.
«Tiny particles have outsize impact on storm
clouds, precipitation: Amazon rainforest provides a unique natural lab to study
effects of
aerosols.»
Despite its smaller ash
cloud, El Chichn emitted more than 40 times the volume of sulfur - rich gases produced by Mt. St. Helens, which revealed that the formation of atmospheric sulfur
aerosols has a more substantial
effect on global temperatures than simply the volume of ash produced during an eruption.
Using a NASA computer model, Oman tracked the worldwide
effects of the sulfate
aerosol cloud that formed following the Laki eruption.
In particular, they propose that
cloud changes associated with
aerosol particles in the atmosphere could be causing the weekend
effect, though other pollution processes can not be ruled out at this time.
The theory of dangerous climate change is based not just on carbon dioxide warming but on positive and negative feedback
effects from water vapor and phenomena such as
clouds and airborne
aerosols from coal burning.
This unique orbit path will allow the CATS instrument to observe locations at different times of day and allow scientists to study day - to - night changes in
cloud and
aerosol effects from space.
The information could also feed into climate models to help understand the
effects of
clouds and
aerosols on Earth's energy balance.
Among the most uncertain elements in climate models are the
effects of
aerosols and their interactions with
clouds — just the things involved in albedo modification — she says.
At least over the oceans, the pre-industrial
cloud conditions would have been considerably different from those of today; this implies that the
aerosols we have been adding to the atmosphere may have had a significant
effect on global patterns of
cloud formation and rain.
Some also argued that the
effects of
aerosols and pollutants, which block sunlight and facilitate
cloud formation, would enhance this cooling trend.
When analyzed together with the
aerosol loading over the same area at the same time, the outcome, says Koren, was a «textbook demonstration of the invigoration
effect» of added
aerosols on
clouds.
He explained that the intermediates turn certain greenhouse gases into
aerosols, which help form
clouds that have a net cooling
effect on the planet.
This mission is fulfilled by operating atmospheric observatories around the world that collect massive amounts of atmospheric measurements to provide data products that help scientists study the
effects and interactions of
clouds and
aerosols and their impact on the earth's energy balance.
What's next: The team is working to gather additional field data and perform further simulations to accurately address
aerosol effects on
clouds.
Aerosols tend to have a cooling
effect by scattering sunlight and by encouraging
clouds to form, preventing the sun's energy reaching Earth's surface.
The multi-scale
aerosol - climate model, an extension of a multi-scale modeling framework, examined specific
aerosol -
cloud interactions and their
effects on the Earth's energy budget, one of the toughest climate forecasting problems.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding of the radiative
effect of
clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in climate models.
An adjustment is necessary because as climate models are continually evaluated against observations evidence has become emerged that the strength of their
aerosol -
cloud interactions are too strong (i.e. the models» «
aerosol indirect
effect» is larger than inferred from observations).
The net
effect of human - generated
aerosols is more complicated and regionally variable — for example, in contrast to the local warming
effect of the Asian Brown
Cloud, global shipping produces large amounts of cooling reflective sulphate
aerosols: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/08/990820022710.htm
Microphysical
effects determine macrophysical response for
aerosol impacts on deep convective
clouds, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Early Edition online the week of November 11 - 15, 2013, DOI: 10.1073 / pnas.1316830110.
He has pioneered the use of SP - CAM to study
aerosol -
cloud interaction and used it together with satellite observations to constrain
aerosol indirect
effects.
As an indirect
effect,
aerosols can interact with and modify
cloud properties.
CLOUD is designed to understand how new
aerosol particles form and grow in the atmosphere, and their
effect on
clouds and climate.
In addition, researchers calculated the changes in the shortwave and longwave and net radiation between the pre-industrial simulation and the present - day simulations to estimate the radiative forcing resulting from the
aerosol effects on cirrus
clouds.
Possible reasons include increased oceanic circulation leading to increased subduction of heat into the ocean, higher than normal levels of stratospheric
aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone levels used as input to the models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly modeled
cloud feedback
effects.
It is rather surprising that adding
cloud lifetime
effect forcing makes any difference, insofar as Aldrin is estimating indirect and direct
aerosol forcings as part of his Bayesian procedure.
The main research themes include greenhouse gas concentrations and ecosystem — atmosphere fluxes, the climate
effects of atmospheric
aerosols,
aerosol —
cloud interactions and air quality.
The total of -0.7 W / m ^ 2 is the same as the best observational (satellite) total
aerosol adjusted forcing estimate given in the leaked Second Order Draft of AR5 WG1, which includes
cloud lifetime (2nd indirect) and other
effects.
When Aldrin adds a fixed
cloud lifetime
effect of -0.25 W / m ^ 2 forcing on top of his variable parameter direct and (1st) indirect
aerosol forcing, the mode of the sensitivity PDF increases from 1.6 to 1.8.
The indirect
aerosol effect on
clouds is non-linear [1], [76] such that it has been suggested that even the modest
aerosol amounts added by pre-industrial humans to an otherwise pristine atmosphere may have caused a significant climate forcing [59].
However, this climate sensitivity includes only the
effects of fast feedbacks of the climate system, such as water vapor,
clouds,
aerosols, and sea ice.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the climate forcing by
aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct
aerosol forcing and indirect
effects via induced
cloud changes.
Plans and missions designed to study the
effects of
clouds and
aerosols have been delayed or cancelled, Charlson and his colleagues write.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic
aerosols,
cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the
effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
But, as far as I can see, the «attacks» by vested interests are not even able to make legitimate points (e.g. uncertainty about the
effects of
clouds or
aerosols in climate models).
However, I am not optimistic — the specifics of the small scale physics (
aerosol indirect
effects on
clouds, sea ice formation, soil hydrology etc.) are so heterogeneous that I don't see how you can do without calculating the details.
Additionally there is a huge amount of uncertainty in
aerosol -
cloud effects (the «
aerosol indirect
effect»).
What it shows is the
effect of the structural uncertainty in individual GCMs (meaning that some of them are systematically high, others systematically low, due to flaws in the representation of the physics; most probably related to discretization / parametrization
effects for
clouds and / or
aerosols).
Should this prove to be significant, climate models will likely incorporate this directly (using embedded
aerosol codes), or will parameterise the
effects based on calculated
cloud variations from more detailed models.
c) anthropogenic
aerosols — mainly sulfate and nitrate (from emissions of SO2 and NOx / NH3) have a strong direct
effect and undoubted liquid
cloud nucleation impacts (the indirect
effects).
Re: Step # 2 and the
effect of
aerosols on low
cloud.