Furthermore, if aerosols did have such a dramatic cancelling effect at the onset of WWII and during the following decades, is
aerosol cooling part of the temperature models?
Not exact matches
«When biogenic VOCs are oxidized, they give rise to
aerosol particles that
cool the climate by reflecting
part of the Sun's radiation back into space,» Artaxo said.
The observed amount of warming thus far has been less than this, because
part of the excess energy is stored in the oceans (amounting to ~ 0.5 °C), and the remainder (~ 1.3 °C) has been masked by the
cooling effect of anthropogenic
aerosols.
Now if this was the 1980s they might have had a point, but the fact that
aerosols are an important climate forcing, have a net
cooling effect on climate and, in
part, arise from the same industrial activities that produce greenhouse gases, has been
part of mainstream science for 30 years.
The problem is that the regions where
aerosols are produced show warming not
cooling in recent times, and the 1940 - 1975
cooling trend is seen in many
parts of the globe where
aerosols were not a factor.
You can, of course, argue that other factors were at work in the early 20th century warming phase, but if you want to argue that the mid-century
cooling was largely due to the neutralizing effect of industrial
aerosol pollutants, then you can not, as did Rodgers, claim that any
part of that earlier warmup was due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Of the forcings leading to a warming in the early
part of the records, solar, decreasing volcanism and GHGs all play a
part (and with a role for
cooling due to land use change and
aerosol increases).
One, the major global
cooling in the Southern Hemisphere during the period 1940 - 1960 takes place in the early
part of the period before the
aerosol build up, which according to the theory, mostly affected the industrialized Northern Hemisphere.
If we would pump
aerosols in the stratosphere to artificially
cool the Earth and thereby compensate (
part of) the current climate warming, we would be permanently living under a slight sunshade.
(PS — I don't remember my entire comment, but
part of it had to do with the fact that in dividing up attribution for the forcings responsible for post-1950 warming, uncertainties regarding anthropogenic sulfate
aerosols are not particularly important, because their net
cooling effect wouldn't influence the percentage apportionment among the warming factors)
They get > 100 % because they argue that the anthropogenic warming effects have to overcome the
aerosol cooling (and therefore give the same net warming as the total warming since 1950), though most people count
aerosols as
part of the anthropogenic effect, which causes the confusion.
Thus, for example, the climate sensitivity (1.7 — 2.6 °C for 2 × CO2) estimated by Schmittner et al. [94] is due largely to their assumed approximately 3 °C
cooling in the LGM, and in lesser
part to the fact that they defined some
aerosol changes (dust) to be a climate forcing.
2) A considerable
part of that effect (apparently larger than thought before, according to the SOD) is produced by the direct effect;
aerosols scatter sunlight and
cool the surface.
While the US, Europe and Russia were heavily affected from
cooling sulfate
aerosols between the 1950s - 80s, those very same regions have brightened thereafter (less pronounced in many
parts of Eastern Europe).
So the
cooling back then wasn't only down to increased industrial
aerosol pollution blocking / scattering some of the incoming sunlight, the IPO also played a
part.
The resulting simulations show the
cooling contribution of
aerosols offset the ongoing warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases over the mid-twentieth century in that
part of the Arctic.
Their model found that the unprecedented increase in monsoon activity over the past 30 years is «due possibly in
part to» the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere, but they said the result could be an overestimate because the authors didn't consider the impacts of
aerosols, which
cool the atmosphere.
The idea that the small
cooling from the 1940s to 1970s is due to natural variability still can not be ruled out, although more likely this is a smaller
part of the explanation and the
cooling is primarily due to the «dust» neglected by Broecker, i.e. due to the rise of anthropogenic
aerosol pollution (Taylor and Penner, 1994).
Based on discussions with my colleagues Rong Zhang and Mike Winton, this seems to be a consequence of an AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) which builds in strength when the
aerosol cooling is strong, trying to balance a
part of the
cooling at the surface with warm waters advected in from the tropics, but also — by a process that is not particularly straightforward —
cools the subsurface waters.