Karsten / Mikel, As far as the mid-century northern hemisphere cooling goes, attributed usually to anthropogenic
aerosol emissions as you are saying, I wonder what became of the highly publicised Thompson et al. 2010 Nature article - Thompson, D. W. J., Wallace, J. M., Kennedy, J. J. & Jones, P. D., (2010): «An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970», Nature 467, 444 - 447.
Worse, you have to know
aerosol emissions as a function of not just time, but of latitude also, because how much sunlight they reflect depends on the angle of sunlight that impacts them.
Not exact matches
Overall, the new measures would lower global anthropogenic
emissions of methane by 50 % and of black carbon
aerosols, also known
as soot, by 80 %.
The scientists expect further warming in the Arctic
as levels of greenhouse gases will continue to increase and
aerosol particle
emissions will likely decrease to combat air pollution in different parts of the world.
Toxins and nicotine have been measured in that
aerosol, such
as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acetic acid and other toxins emitted into the air, though at lower levels compared to conventional cigarette
emissions.
«Current
emission inventories do not account for cultural burning practices in Asia
as aerosol sources,» said Chakrabarty, who is originally from the Northeastern region of India.
Photo credit: DRIChakrabarty and colleagues found to their surprise that funeral pyre
emissions contain sunlight - absorbing organic carbon
aerosols known
as brown carbon.
Ironically, if the world burns significantly less coal, that would lessen CO2
emissions but also reduce
aerosols in the atmosphere that block the sun (such
as sulfate particulates), so we would have to limit CO2 to below roughly 405 ppm.
Simulating natural and humanmade climate drivers, scientists showed that the decline in rainfall is primarily a response to humanmade increases in greenhouse gases
as well
as a thinning of the ozone caused by humanmade
aerosol emissions.
Non-polar glacial ice holds a wealth of information about past changes in climate, the environment and especially atmospheric composition, such
as variations in temperature, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and
emissions of natural
aerosols or human - made pollutants... The glaciers therefore hold the memory of former climates and help to predict future environmental changes.
Scientists have already linked
aerosol emissions to increases in lightning over areas of the Amazon prone to forest fires (pdf)
as well
as regions of China with thick air pollution.
Aerosols are solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere, consisting of (in rough order of abundance): sea salt, mineral dust, inorganic salts such
as ammonium sulfate (which has natural
as well
as anthropogenic sources from e.g. coal burning), and carbonaceous
aerosol such
as soot, plant
emissions, and incompletely combusted fossil fuel.
For sulphate
aerosols, current models probably overestimate their influence,
as there is no measurable effect of the large (over 60 %) reduction in SO2
emissions in Europe at the places where the largest influence should be visible, according to the models.
When
aerosols from human activities such
as industrial plant and vehicle
emissions are added to the system, the energy budget has to deal with the increase.
Since climate scientists certainly don't have a crystal ball, we generally take a range of scenarios or projections of future
emissions of CO2 and other important forcings such
as methane and
aerosols.
«Our findings,» write the authors, «suggest that anthropogenic
aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such
as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought.»
These changes might influence interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere such
as the air - sea gas exchange and the
emission of sea - spray
aerosols that can scatter solar radiation or contribute to the formation of clouds.
If those
aerosols canceled the warming effect of fossil fuel
emissions from 1940 - 1979,
as has been claimed, then they would have had the same effect prior to 1940, regardless of whether the volume of both CO2
emissions and
aerosol emissions were smaller.
V 323: If those
aerosols canceled the warming effect of fossil fuel
emissions from 1940 - 1979,
as has been claimed, then they would have had the same effect prior to 1940, regardless of whether the volume of both CO2
emissions and
aerosol emissions were smaller.
«A rapid cutback in greenhouse gas
emissions could speed up global warming... because current global warming is offset by global dimming — the 2 - 3ºC of cooling cause by industrial pollution, known to scientists
as aerosol particles, in the atmosphere.»
But models are not tuned to the trends in surface temperature, and
as Gavin noted before (at least for the GISS model), the
aerosol amounts are derived from simulations using
emissions data and direct effects determined by changes in concentrations.
However,
as I understand it what is currently the mainstream view is that what explains the transition from early 20th century warming to the flat period between is the resumption of industrial production and thus of reflective
aerosols (predominantly sulfates), and that likewise, it was the passage in the early seventies of laws requiring cleaner
emissions that reduced reflective
aerosols.
Ideas that we should increase
aerosol emissions to counteract global warming have been described
as a «Faustian bargain» because that would imply an ever increasing amount of
emissions in order to match the accumulated GHG in the atmosphere, with ever increasing monetary and health costs.
This is a peer reviewed paper by respected scientists who are saying that
aerosol forcing means that the majority of the warming caused by existing co2
emission has effectively been masked thus far, and that
as aerosols remain in the atmosphere for far shorter a duration of time than co2, we will have already most likely crossed the 2 degree threshold that the G8 politicians have been discussing this week once the cooling effect of
aerosols dissipate.
I agree that targeting 2C rather than nothing is a start — but is it a start in the right direction or will we be confronted with a whole new set of excuses ranging from «we don't have to do anything because of the «current» trend» or «we'll put up an
aerosol emission program
as soon
as 1.9 C have been reached» or «our scientists say we'll never reach the 2C anyway and we don't care what your scientists say» or other ideas like that?
The total warming from methane, nitrous oxide and
aerosol emissions were each estimated from climate model simulations driven by historical forcing pathways for each gas, and were allocated to individual countries
as described in section 2.
Given the total irrelevance of volcanic
aerosols during the period in question, the only very modest effect of fossil fuel
emissions and the many inconsistencies governing the data pertaining to solar irradiance, it seems clear that climate science has no meaningful explanation for the considerable warming trend we see in the earlier part of the 20th century — and if that's the case, then there is no reason to assume that the warming we see in the latter part of that century could not also be due to either some
as yet unknown natural force, or perhaps simply random drift.
Regarding fine
aerosols,
as suggested by David, there are huge increases in industrial activity in SE Asia since 1975, but that is a rather linear expansion, where SO2
emissions are in lockstep with more dirtier
aerosols.
The rather extreme runup in temperatures during the early 20th century has been explained, in part,
as due to a relative lack of volcanic
aerosol emissions.
Coal, on the other hand, seems to be plentiful, it causes more
emissions per energy unit generated, and it has some side issues such
as soot and other particulates, including
aerosols which may actually be cooling the planet.
Some question remains
as to how much of the temporary slowdown in surface warming is due to human
aerosol emissions, how much due to ENSO, how much due to heat being transferred to the deep oceans, and so forth.
Increases in Asian
aerosol emissions have been suggested
as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years.
Choices regarding
emissions of other warming agents, such
as methane, black carbon on ice / snow, and
aerosols, can affect global warming over coming decades but have little effect on longer - term warming of the Earth over centuries and millennia.
Scientists found that
emissions of tiny air particles from human - made sources — known
as anthropogenic
aerosols — were the cause.
Natural
aerosols such
as dust and sea salt also play an important role in climate and their
emissions and interactions differed significantly among the models, with consequences to the role of short - lived pollutants.
So Nielsen - Gammon is correct to note that some of the slowed surface temperature warming over the past decade can be attributed to La Niña, although there have been other influences at play
as well, such
as human
aerosol emissions.
While SO2
emissions may have had some small role in that period, they can't have a role in the current standstill,
as the increase of
emissions in SE Asia is compensated by the decrease in
emissions in the Western world, thus there is hardly any increase in cooling
aerosols while CO2 levels are going up at record speed and temperatures are stalled.
This relationship between cumulative
emissions and warming is not perfect,
as it will change based on what happens to non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such
as methane and nitrous oxide,
as well
as how quickly climate - cooling
aerosols are reduced.
As the
emission of
aerosols in the 1940s onwards tended to be into a cleaner atmosphere they may have had a larger effect.
Primary emphasis is placed on investigation of climate sensitivity — globally and regionally, including the climate system's response to diverse forcings such
as solar variability, volcanoes, anthropogenic and natural
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, paleo - climate changes, etc..
As an example, anthropogenic SO2
aerosol emissions totaled 131 Megatonnes in 1975, and by 2011 they had dropped to 101 Megatonnes, a drop of 30 Megatonnes..
It will be invaluable to have these tools in the public sphere
as China's economic slowdown and air pollution reduction programs continue to impact
Aerosol emissions.
As a check, the Climate Sensitivity factor for the reduction in tropospheric
aerosol emissions was also calculated: Global totals of SO2
emissions in 1975 were 131 Megatonnes.
«since the mid 1980s a significant increase in visibility has been noted in western Europe (e.g. Doyle and Dorling, 2002), and there are strong indications that a reduction in
aerosol load from anthropogenic
emissions (in other words, air pollution) has been the dominant contributor to this effect, which is also referred to
as «brightening».»
Real Climate defines «
aerosols»
as ``... solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere, consisting of (in rough order of abundance): sea salt, mineral dust, inorganic salts such
as ammonium sulfate (which has natural
as well
as anthropogenic sources from e.g. coal burning), and carbonaceous
aerosol such
as soot, plant
emissions, and incompletely combusted fossil fuel.»
Increased biomass can lead to increased
emissions of biogases such
as dimethyl sulfide and isoprene, which when oxidized in the atmospheric form sulphate and organic
aerosols that can nucleate clouds, increasing cloud cover and planetary albedo — the CLAW Hypothesis.
I'm not sure, therefore, what is the basis for your description of a «permanent cloud of
aerosols», particularly
as it relates to sulfur
emissions.
They concluded that with a bit of help from changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such
as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the growth in the volume of
aerosols being pumped up power station chimneys was probably enough to block the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas
emissions over the period 1998 - 2008.
My question woiuld be: What happens when human related forcing such
as aerosols, sulfur
emission, etc. act in opposition to other human related forcing such
as greenhouse gas
emissions?
These NCA
emissions directly affect particle concentrations and human exposure to nanosized
aerosol in urban areas, and potentially may act
as nanosized condensation nuclei for the condensation of atmospheric low - volatile organic compounds.