«Our findings,» write the authors, «suggest that anthropogenic
aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought.»
Not exact matches
For sulphate
aerosols, current models probably overestimate their
influence, as there is no measurable effect of the large (over 60 %) reduction in SO2
emissions in Europe at the places where the largest
influence should be visible, according to the models.
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more
emissions in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different, with much less relative
influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster increasing CO2 levels).
These changes might
influence interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere such as the air - sea gas exchange and the
emission of sea - spray
aerosols that can scatter solar radiation or contribute to the formation of clouds.
Thus the
influence of
aerosols must be visible mainly in the NH and specifically in regions downwind the sources where the largest change in
emissions has happened.
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more
emissions in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different, with much less relative
influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster increasing CO2 levels).
Such is the case for the explanation — popular with the press when it was first proposed — that an increase in
aerosol emissions, particularly from China, was acting to help offset the warming
influence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide
emissions.
The IPCC model projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human
emissions only (both GHG warming and
aerosol cooling, but no natural
influences) are shown in Figure 6.
So Nielsen - Gammon is correct to note that some of the slowed surface temperature warming over the past decade can be attributed to La Niña, although there have been other
influences at play as well, such as human
aerosol emissions.
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural
influence on global temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising
aerosols emissions, and increased heat storage in the deep oceans).
The first sentence of the opening paragraph reads, «The time history of observed twentieth - century global - mean surface temperature reflects the combined
influences of naturally occurring climate variations and anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate
aerosols.»
Note that while the BEST approach is based on correlations, they are correlations of variables with known causal relationships (i.e. an increased greenhouse effect is known to cause global warming), although they do not appear to have considered some important
influences like human
aerosol emissions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
To slow the rate of anthropogenic - induced climate change in the 21st century and to minimize its eventual magnitude, societies will need to manage the climate forcing factors that are directly
influenced by human activities, in particular greenhouse gas and
aerosol emissions.
Because of the first of these reasons, were we to abruptly halt all
emissions now, the sulfate
aerosols would rapidly be removed from the atmosphere by precipitation whereas the CO2 concentration would remain elevated, and so there would be a significant further warming
influence just as a result of past
emissions; this warming would lead to the quite significant global warming that Lindzen mentions.
Additional output from the ACCMIP runs will include concentration / mass of radiatively active species,
aerosol optical properties, and radiative forcings (clear and all sky) as well as important parameters that do not directly
influence climate such as hydroxyl, chemical reaction rates, deposition rates,
emission rates, surface pollutants and diagnostics of tracer transport.
Timonen, H., Karjalainen, P., Saukko, E., Saarikoski, S., Aakko - Saksa, P., Simonen, P., Murtonen, T., Dal Maso, M., Kuuluvainen, H., Bloss, M., Ahlberg, E., Svenningsson, B., Pagels, J., Brune, W. H., Keskinen, J., Worsnop, D. R., Hillamo, R., and Rönkkö, T.:
Influence of fuel ethanol content on primary
emissions and secondary
aerosol formation potential for a modern flex - fuel gasoline vehicle, Atmos.
Both, primary
emissions and secondary
aerosol emitted by vehicles have an
influence to air quality in urban areas.