Hienola, A., Partanen, A. - I., Pietikäinen, J. - P., O'Donnell, Korhonen, H., Matthews, H. D., and Laaksonen, A.: The impact of
aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways, Environ.
Hienola, A., Partanen, A. - I., Pietikäinen, J. - P., O'Donnel, D., Korhonen, H., Matthews, D., and Laaksonen, A.: The impact of
aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways, Environ.
Has anyone modeled and published the effects of anthropogenic Chinese / Indian
aerosol emissions on monsoonal / SE Asian climate?
Hienola, A., Partanen, A. - I., Pietikäinen, J. - P., O'Donnel, D., Korhonen, H., Matthews, D., and Laaksonen, A.: The impact of
aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways, Environ.
Not exact matches
This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate models based
on projections of future
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols.
The report is based
on the JRC's
Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), which is not only unique in its space and time coverage, but also in its completeness and consistency of the emissions compilations for multiple pollutants: the greenhouse gases (GHG), air pollutants and
Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), which is not only unique in its space and time coverage, but also in its completeness and consistency of the
emissions compilations for multiple pollutants: the greenhouse gases (GHG), air pollutants and
emissions compilations for multiple pollutants: the greenhouse gases (GHG), air pollutants and
aerosols.
The study also showed that the effect was much larger
on a regional scale, counteracting possibly up to 30 % of warming in more rural, forested areas where anthropogenic
emissions of
aerosols were much lower in comparison to the natural
aerosols.
Forward model approaches to estimating
aerosol forcing are based
on estimates of
emissions and models of
aerosol physics and chemistry.
«We're not clear yet
on what components of these
emissions are the biggest contributors to ozone formation or
aerosol formation,» says Coggon, «so that's what we'll be trying to figure out.»
Both CO2
emissions and
aerosols are dependent
on the fuel source.
It was certainly going
on during the last 20 years of the 20th century, and was certainly a major contributor to both CO2
emissions AND sulfate
aerosols during this period — a period that saw the ONLY major runup of global temperatures that could possibly be attributed to CO2
emissions.
From the Physical Science Basis: «Shindell et al. (2009) estimated the impact of reactive species
emissions on both gaseous and
aerosol forcing species and found that ozone precursors, including methane, had an additional substantial climate effect because they increased or decreased the rate of oxidation of SO2 to sulphate
aerosol.
During that period, moreover, there were no constraints
on the burning of coal whatsoever, thus no constraints
on the production of the sort of
aerosols currently claimed to have a cooling effect
on the atmosphere strong enough to offset the effect of CO2
emission.
V: The logic behind the claim that lowered temperatures mid-century were due largely to the
emission of industrial
aerosols from the unconstrained burning of fossil fuels depends
on the assumption that the warming to be expected from the release of CO2 was somehow neutralized by the release of those
aerosols.
If «The most extreme scenario postulated in TAR» is almost solely dependent
on GHG
emissions, why would the introduction of
aerosol effects not change the results?
The global mean
aerosol radiative forcing caused by the ship
emissions ranges from -12.5 to -23 mW / m ^ 2, depending
on whether the mixing between black carbon and sulfate is included in the model.
But then the world decided that they didn't like choking to death
on pea soup fogs (thousands died one winter in London in the 1950s), so slowly but surely they brought in laws restricting
aerosol emissions.
Anything above VEI 3 will likely have some effect
on stratospheric
aerosols, (although the amount of sulfur
emissions don't correlate precisely with VEI index).
So, I know that CO2 fertilization has been considered in terms of its effects
on 20th century trees used in reconstructions — has there been considerations of changes in diffuse light due to
aerosol emissions?
Coal,
on the other hand, seems to be plentiful, it causes more
emissions per energy unit generated, and it has some side issues such as soot and other particulates, including
aerosols which may actually be cooling the planet.
In summary the findings to date indicate that the effect of cosmic rays
on cloud formation is small compared to the large variations in natural biogenic
aerosol emissions.
Choices regarding
emissions of other warming agents, such as methane, black carbon
on ice / snow, and
aerosols, can affect global warming over coming decades but have little effect
on longer - term warming of the Earth over centuries and millennia.
The IPCC model projections of future warming based
on the varios SRES and human
emissions only (both GHG warming and
aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.
Our model suggests that the effect of changes in cosmic ray intensity
on CCN is small and unlikely to be comparable to the large variations in natural primary
aerosol emissions.
Effects of anthropogenic
emissions on aerosol formation from isoprene and monoterpenes in the southeastern United States
This reveals an ignorance of the literature, otherwise you'd know that the extent of
aerosol cooling is estimated from the measured
aerosol optical depth due to volcanic eruptions and their consequent impact
on global temperature, and estimates of
aerosol emissions during the 20th century.
The models used the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change's «A1B» mid-range projected
emission scenarios for ozone and
aerosol precursors, independently calculated the resulting composition change, and then performed transient simulations to 2050 examining the response to projected changes in the short - lived species and to changes in both long - lived and short - lived species together.
Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in
aerosol emissions, especially
on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.
This relationship between cumulative
emissions and warming is not perfect, as it will change based
on what happens to non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, as well as how quickly climate - cooling
aerosols are reduced.
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence
on global temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising
aerosols emissions, and increased heat storage in the deep oceans).
It depends
on the relative quantities of anthropogenic or natural
aerosol emissions — 25 - 50 % in some estimates.
Primary emphasis is placed
on investigation of climate sensitivity — globally and regionally, including the climate system's response to diverse forcings such as solar variability, volcanoes, anthropogenic and natural
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, paleo - climate changes, etc..
Surely, it does not all hang
on the fact that Europle cleaned up its
aerosol emissions and therefore anthropogenic warming very likely slightly or moderately outedges natural warming compared with 200 years ago, and if Europe had not cleaned up its act a little and temperatures were 0.2 C lower today, global warming would be a non issue.
The
emission data
on the RCPs were harmonized and downscaled (to a 0.5 × 0.5 grid) for air pollutants, i.e.
aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors.
Over the last century, tiny airborne particles called
aerosols, which cool the climate by absorbing and reflecting sunlight, have largely cancelled out the effects of GHG
emissions on tropical storm intensity, according to a new scientific review paper published in Science journal.
The 2007 report focussed
on greenhouse gasses, he said, whereas the 2013 report included all «anthropogenic forcings», including «the cooling effect from human
aerosol emissions».
Note that while the BEST approach is based
on correlations, they are correlations of variables with known causal relationships (i.e. an increased greenhouse effect is known to cause global warming), although they do not appear to have considered some important influences like human
aerosol emissions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
This also depends
on how our
aerosol and soot
emissions change in the future.
Worse, you have to know
aerosol emissions as a function of not just time, but of latitude also, because how much sunlight they reflect depends
on the angle of sunlight that impacts them.
The estimates — based
on analysis of fire's impact
on emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane; albedo or the reflectivity of Earth's surface; and release of
aerosols and other particulates — suggest fire plays a major large role in climate than conventionally believed.
As we measure more and more
aerosol emission effects, such as soot - published in January - and check
on ever - changing factors such as polar ice reduction, more evidence makes us less likely to get it wrong.
Additional runs for 2000 with 1850 climate and for 2030 and 2100 (RCP 8.5) with 2000
emissions are designed to separate the effects of climate change
on constituents and for isolating
aerosol indirect effects more cleanly using the clear - sky / all - sky flux diagnostics.
Data
on non-sulphur
aerosols are sparse and highly speculative, but in terms of global sulphur
emissions, these appear to have declined from a range of 75 ± 10 MtS in 1990 to 55 — 62 MtS in 2000.
Pitari, G., E. Mancini, V. Rizi, and D.T. Shindell, 2002: Impact of future climate and
emission changes
on stratospheric
aerosols and ozone.
Eli: The real issue with BC forcing is that it is not global, but intensely local, depending not only
on emissions (Asian brown cloud) but also absorptions (Greenland darkening) I guess the question for me is, are there any
aerosol forcings that are truly global?
This was likely an
aerosol increase from the increased refining of oil in Texas and more local
emissions from cars, whose effect
on dimming is enhanced by the humid environment in the SE, and perhaps land - use change -LRB-?).
Posted in Carbon, Development and Climate Change, Environment, Government Policies, Green House Gas
Emissions, India, Lessons, Pollution, Research, Resilience, Vulnerability Comments Off
on Aerosols Confirmed Rising Over India
Hmmm... don't suppose it occurred to anyone to check the amount of anthropogenic
aerosols that were emitted during this time frame 1940 - 1970, or the fact that
aerosols have an immediate cooling effect
on troposphere temperatures that can mask the underlying warming caused by the CO2
emissions that also accompany the
aerosols.
Given that, if one wants freedom of choice and an efficient market, shouldn't one accept a market solution (tax / credit or analogous system based
on public costs, applied strategically to minimize paperwork (don't tax residential utility bills — apply upstream instead), applied approximately fairly to both be fair and encourage an efficient market response (don't ignore any significant category, put all sources of the same
emission on equal footing; if cap / trade, allow some exchange between CO2 and CH4, etc, based CO2 (eq); include ocean acidification, etc.), allowing some approximation to that standard so as to not get very high costs in dealing with small details and also to address the biggest, most - well understood effects and sources first (put off dealing with the costs and benifits of sulphate
aerosols, etc, until later if necessary — but get at high - latitude black carbon right away)?
[Response: For any projection for the future of climate, you obviously need a projection of
emissions (greenhouse gases, ozone and
aerosol precursors, etc.), land use change and so
on.