Sentences with phrase «aerosol forcing needs»

Not exact matches

The uncertainty in aerosol forcing looks unsettling, but this is a good example of the case where one needs to ask: What are the consequences of this uncertainty for our predictions of future climate?

This method tries to maximize using pure observations to find the temperature change and the forcing (you might need a model to constrain some of the forcings, but there's a lot of uncertainty about how the surface and atmospheric albedo changed during glacial times... a lot of studies only look at dust and not other aerosols, there is a lot of uncertainty about vegetation change, etc).

Reduction of the amount of atmospheric CH4 and related gases is needed to counterbalance expected forcing from increasing N2O and decreasing sulfate aerosols.

As long as the temporal pattern of variation in aerosol forcing is approximately correct, the need to achieve a reasonable fit to the temporal variation in global mean temperature and the difference between Northern and Southern Hemisphere temperatures can provide a useful constraint on the net aerosol radiative forcing (as demonstrated, e.g., by Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Stott et al., 2006c).

Forcing is complicated though because you need to know things like aerosol size distribution.

i) the temperature is not in equilibrium with the forcing (that takes time) and ii) CO2 is not the only forcing — you need to factor in aerosols, other greenhouse gases etc. — gavin]

You need information about the degree of intrinsic variability, estimates of the natural forcings (principally solar and volcanic), and estimates of the human related forcings (GHGs, land use change, aerosols etc.).

A lot of assumptions need to be made to interpret what these satellite measurements are actually seeing — hence the big uncertainty in the radiative forcing by aerosols.

That means: in fairness, at a minimum, you need to give modelers credit for trying to provide true forcasts based on the forcing estimates for aerosols, and those forecasts were tested against data.

Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change.

And no need for aerosol forcing.

To slow the rate of anthropogenic - induced climate change in the 21st century and to minimize its eventual magnitude, societies will need to manage the climate forcing factors that are directly influenced by human activities, in particular greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions.

Given this large (negative) aerosol forcing, precise monitoring of changing aerosols is needed [73].

Reduction of the amount of atmospheric CH4 and related gases is needed to counterbalance expected forcing from increasing N2O and decreasing sulfate aerosols.

They correctly identified the various forces acting in the various directions (greenhouse gases = > warming, aerosols = > cooling, on longer time scales expect natural cooling from interglacial into an ice age); however, they said more research was needed to reliably say what path the climate would take.

I think it could produce useful predictions but major uncertainties need to be addressed; aerosols, BC, maybe GCRs, indirect solar forcings, etc..

In essence, you need to simulate the so - called adjusted forcing, or the forcing efficacy for each aerosol component (which takes these effects into account).

In any case, this paper and theory therein significantly reduces the need to use aerosol forcing while explaining the the mid-century cooling.

It is also here where one needs to discriminate between long - lived forcings such as CO2, and short - lived forcing agents such as methane or aerosols, which can dominate the short - term behavior of global temperature, but have no discernible impact on the century - to - millennium scale trend.

Indeed, since in general GCMs significantly overestimate aerosol forcing compared with observations, they need to embody a high climate sensitivity or they would underestimate historical warming and be consigned to the scrapheap.

About aerosols, one thing to consider is that any natural background concentration of dust etc will not be forcings, by definition, we need to look only at changes.

, which are in fact the excess of AFari + aci over RFari, need adjusting (scaling down by (0.73 − 0.4) / (0.9 − 0.4), all years) to obtain a forcing dataset based on a purely observational estimate of aerosol AF rather than the IPCC's composite estimate.

This study will examine the current state of knowledge regarding the direct and indirect radiative forcing effects of gases, aerosols, land use, and solar variability on the climate of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and it will identify research needed to improve our understanding of these effects.

In the climate case, we need to know how well we estimated forcings (greenhouse gases, volcanic effects, aerosols, solar etc.) in the projections.