Expectations of decreases in large source regions such as China [195] may be counteracted by
aerosol increases other places as global population continues to increase.
Not exact matches
On the
other hand, «if some volcanoes that are large enough go off and if they are the dominant cause [of
increasing aerosols], then we will probably see some
increases» in cooling.
While it is still possible that
other factors, such as heat storage in
other oceans or an
increase in
aerosols, have led to cooling at the Earth's surface, this research is yet another piece of evidence that strongly points to the Pacific Ocean as the reason behind a slowdown in warming.
A few of the main points of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An
increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and
other changes in the climate system; emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has
increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, showed that the production of tar sands and
other heavy oil — thick, highly viscous crude oil that is difficult to produce — are a major source of
aerosols, a component of fine particle air pollution, which can affect regional weather patterns and
increase the risk of lung and heart disease.
Whilst several methods for counteracting climate change with geoengineering are considered feasible, injecting sulfates or
other fine
aerosols into the stratosphere, thereby
increasing planetary albedo, is a leading contender.
Of the
other strand,
aerosol cooling, Rasool and Schneider, Science, July 1971, p 138, «Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and
Aerosols: Effects of Large
Increases on Global Climate» is the best exemplar.
Here a reaction on the main points about the natural (solar, volcanic) vs. man - made (GHGs,
aerosols) sensitivity: — If there was a larger temperature variation in the past millennium, the mathematical evidence is that an
increase of one of the terms of the temperature trend equation must go at the cost of one or more
other terms of the equation.
The Hadcm3 model has calculated the largest
increase in temperature which may be attributed to the reduction of
aerosol load (40 %) over the period 1990 - 1999 somewhere in NE Europe,
other models do that more in Southern Europe.
Of the
other strand,
aerosol cooling, Rasool and Schneider, Science, July 1971, p 138, «Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and
Aerosols: Effects of Large
Increases on Global Climate» is the best exemplar.
Such factors include
increased greenhouse gas concentrations associated with fossil fuel burning, sulphate
aerosols produced as an industrial by - product, human - induced changes in land surface properties among
other things.
In
other words, if we are after a cause (or causes) for the temperature
increase during the period in question, the presence or absence of
aerosols from volcanic eruptions is beside the point, because they can not explain any
increase in temperatures that occurred prior to any cooling effect they might have had.
Here a reaction on the main points about the natural (solar, volcanic) vs. man - made (GHGs,
aerosols) sensitivity: — If there was a larger temperature variation in the past millennium, the mathematical evidence is that an
increase of one of the terms of the temperature trend equation must go at the cost of one or more
other terms of the equation.
The
increase of ocean heat content in Barnett, Pierce and Schnur 2001 is only compared to GHGs and
aerosols, all
other human and natural influences excluded.
But
increasing CO2 provides a long - term positive forcing;
other forcings (like solar early in the century, and sulfate
aerosols mid centrury) are superimposed onto that.
There is the possibility that the relative importance of CO2 as a climate forcer
increases as it transcends the
other controllers of Earth's energy balance (some of which may be masked more in ice age studies — like uncertainties around the amount of ice age
aerosol climate forcing, ice age thermohaline stability and as always insolation differences throughout the Pleistocene).
One driver of temperatures in this region is the abundance and variability of ozone, but water vapor, volcanic
aerosols, and dynamical changes such as the Quasi - Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are also significant; anthropogenic
increases in
other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide play a lesser but significant role in the lower stratosphere.
We know
other GHGs are also
increasing, for example, and
aerosols and solar forcing are changing, but these seem to be absorbed in the low - frequency saw - tooth together with ocean variations.
Barrett also predicted that this
increase in CO2 «should
increase the temperature by 0.3 °C; this trend might be detectable by careful analysis unless it is offset by
other effects, such as those of
aerosols».
«since the mid 1980s a significant
increase in visibility has been noted in western Europe (e.g. Doyle and Dorling, 2002), and there are strong indications that a reduction in
aerosol load from anthropogenic emissions (in
other words, air pollution) has been the dominant contributor to this effect, which is also referred to as «brightening».»
Serious droughts and
other unusual weather since 1972
increase scientific and public concern about climate change, with cooling from
aerosols suspected to be as likely as warming; journalists talk of ice age.
This study of course does not take away very different concerns related to stratospheric
aerosol SRM geoengineering, like possible damage to the ozone layer [which in turn would be good news if you hate waiting for that spring tan] and the fact that allowing CO2 concentrations to keep rising presents
other problems, like the necessity to never stop with the active process of SRM geoengineering, and
increasing ecological damage caused by ocean acidification.
During the 1950s and 1960s, average global temperatures levelled off, as
increases in
aerosols from fossil fuels and
other sources cooled the planet.
John Philips says: Over a longer scale, the mid-century cooling has long been ascribed to the
increase in sulpher and
other aerosol pollution in the post-war industrialisation, this effect later diminished due to clean air legislation.
This
increase is not instantaneous as there are many
other drivers likes
aerosols, sun, volcanic eruptions and also the natural variability of the climatic system.
Over a longer scale, the mid-century cooling has long been ascribed to the
increase in sulpher and
other aerosol pollution in the post-war industrialisation, this effect later diminished due to clean air legislation.
This is an old story: Rasool and (Steve) Schneider published a paper in Science on that day noting that if human - made
aerosols (small particles in the air)
increased by a factor of four,
other things being equal, they could cause massive global cooling.
I am guessing that this would include
increases in
other associated GHGs (+ ve feedback) and
increases in
aerosols from fuel burning -LRB-- ve feedback).
The situation we have here is that the cooling effect of man - made
aerosols has declined appreciably [since 1951] as CO2 emissions and
other GHGs have
increased, so we would expect even greater warming, which hasn't happened.
They deny they are wrong and fail to correct their mistakes: Competent personnel would have altered the GCM models to drastically reduce CO2 feedback and
increase other effects (solar, clouds,
aerosol) a long time ago.
IPCC2013 SPM - 10 admitted there may be «in some models, an overestimate of the response to
increasing greenhouse gas and
other anthropogenic forcing (dominated by the effects of
aerosols)», but retained the alarming upper limit of 4.5 º C from IPCC2007.
However, there have been proposals to mitigate climate change not by decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, but by
increasing the reflection of incoming solar radiation with mirrors,
aerosols (small particles), or
other means.
In
other words, the slowed surface warming isn't a result of a smaller global energy imbalance due to factors like
increased cooling from human
aerosol emissions.
Our climate model, driven mainly by
increasing human - made greenhouse gases and
aerosols, among
other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 T 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space.
Main problem is that if you expect a huge cooling impact of
aerosols, the warming effect of CO2 must be
increased too and opposite the
other way out.
Natural Variability Doesn't Account for Observed Temperature
Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are
other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in
aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature
increases observed since 1880.
Read more: Stanford University
Aerosols Also Implicated in Glacier Melting, Changing Weather Patterns
Other research examining the effects of soot on melting glaciers and changing weather pattens in South Asia has reached similar conclusions: Beyond
increasing atmospheric warming, because the soot coats the surface of the snow and ice it changes the albedo of the surface, allowing it to absorb more sunlight and thereby accelerating melting.
The monotonic
increase of the cleaned global temperature throughout the 20th century suggests
increasing greenhouse gas forcing more - or-less consistently dominating sulfate
aerosol forcing, although our technique can not exclude
other mechanisms not contained in the current generation of model forcing (22).
It would imply that the CO2 forcing of near 2 W / m2 has already all been balanced by something, presumably a combination of
increased aerosols,
increased surface temperature, reduced
other GHGs,
increased clouds,
increased surface albedo, and / or a weaker sun.
The identification of
other, sometimes more powerful, greenhouse gases such as methane, the contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide from
other human activities such as deforestation and cement manufacture, better understanding of the temperature - changing properties of atmospheric pollution such as sulphur emissions,
aerosols and their importance in the post-1940s northern hemisphere cooling: the knowledge - base was
increasing year by year.
Forster et al. (2007) described four mechanisms by which volcanic forcing influences climate: RF due to
aerosol — radiation interaction; differential (vertical or horizontal) heating, producing gradients and changes in circulation; interactions with
other modes of circulation, such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and ozone depletion with its effects on stratospheric heating, which depends on anthropogenic chlorine (stratospheric ozone would
increase with a volcanic eruption under low - chlorine conditions).
These include
other anthropogenic factors such as
increased industrial
aerosols and ozone depletion, as well as natural changes in solar radiation and volcanic
aerosols, and the cycle of El Niño and La Niña events.
``... Our climate model, driven mainly by
increasing human - made greenhouse gases and
aerosols, among
other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 ± 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space....»