Not exact matches
And
for reasons that are not clear, positively charged bolts struck less frequently when the
levels of silicon dioxide and other
aerosols in the air were high.
Processes
for which global -
level boundaries can not yet be quantified are represented by gray wedges; these are atmospheric
aerosol loading, novel entities, and the functional role of biosphere integrity.
Those missions include the Plankton,
Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite to monitor Earth's ocean health and atmosphere in 2022; the Orbiting Carbon Observatory - 3 experiment that would track carbon - dioxide
levels from the International Space Station; the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) pathfinder Earth climate instrument
for the ISS in 2020 time frame; and, finally, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), a joint NASA - NOAA mission that is in orbit today and monitoring Earth from space.
During ISDAC, they collected an unprecedented
level of data and detailed observations on Arctic clouds and
aerosols, those tiny particles in the atmosphere that act as seeds
for cloud droplets and ice crystals.
does fit the temperature trend to an acceptable
level, if one should reduce the sensitivity
for CO2 /
aerosols far enough... Current models also can reproduce other transitions (LGM - Holocene) with a reasonable accuracy, but this is mainly in periods where there is a huge overlap between temperature (as initiator) and CO2 / CH4
levels (as feedback).
Summary
for Policymakers Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles Chapter 7: Clouds and
Aerosols Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Chapter 8 Supplement Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional Chapter 11: Near - term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability Chapter 12: Long - term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Chapter 13: Sea
Level Change Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance
for Future Regional Climate Change Chapter 14 Supplement Technical Summary
«On the other hand, we might assume that there has been some lower, but non-zero «background
level» of volcanic
aerosols - let's arbitrarily make it 2 on a scale of 10,
for ease of discussion.
does fit the temperature trend to an acceptable
level, if one should reduce the sensitivity
for CO2 /
aerosols far enough... Current models also can reproduce other transitions (LGM - Holocene) with a reasonable accuracy, but this is mainly in periods where there is a huge overlap between temperature (as initiator) and CO2 / CH4
levels (as feedback).
Since we would already be over 2C of warming with current CO2
levels, except
for aerosols, isn't the safe amount of fossil fuels that can be burned zero?
Note to reporters: a scientist's willingness to make predictions of the future is an indication of the current
level of understanding of the science;
for example Hansen et al predicted that Pinatubo's eruption in 1991 would produce a significant
aerosol cooling effect, and they were right; but would anyone be willing to predict that La Nina (assuming conditions set in) will result in a record hurricane season this fall?
I'm pretty sure you can get the grey version of that into a strat - cooling / trop - warming situation if you pick the strat absorbers right, but Andy is certainly right that non-grey effects play a crucial role in explaining quantitatively what is going on in the real atmosphere (that's connected with the non-grey explanation
for the anomalously cold tropopause which I have in Chapter 4, and also with the reason that
aerosols do not produce stratospheric cooling, and everything depends a lot on what
level you are looking at).
Pollutant gas and
aerosol emissions
levels in the reference scenario were checked
for consistency by estimating regional surface particulate and ozone
levels using the MOZART atmospheric chemistry model.
But with the build - up to war economic output reflective
aerosols would have been at a higher
level — with greenhouse gases having gone stagnant
for a good part of the previous decade and with methane having been hit even harder due to its short residence time.
One hears of dire predictions of sea -
level rises which don't seem to be eventuating, of stasis in global temperatures that weren't predicted, of claimed ad - hoc appeals to
aerosol effects, etc., and that's without going into the general atmosphere of hostility to people like me who genuinely think the case
for harmful AGW effects looks shaky.
Chinese
aerosols, deep ocean hide and seek, low
level volcanism, «natural variability»... that stuff is so simple that priests and shamans have been doing it
for millennia.
While there is a reduction in the impact of
aerosols, at a global
level,
for some tropical regions, a shift towards higher concentrations is also reported.
Would you care to explain to me why you are confident about the estimates of atmospheric
aerosol levels that are available
for that period?
well, if it turns out to be useful
for weather forecasting and dynamics at that
level, perhaps it would prove useful in reducing the rather large uncertainty the GCM have with clouds and
aerosols?
Global temps vary
for many reasons beyond CO2
levels including but not limited to: planetary motion, changes in albedo, stratospheric
aerosols, and solar variability to name a few, but the only area of genuine study by the IPCC has been rising CO2
levels.
Leaving aside the generally less well constrained results using the 1901 — 2010 period that started with two anomalously cold decades, none of these show scaling factors
for «other anthropogenic» — predominantly
aerosol and to a lesser extent ozone, with minor contributions from land use and other factors — that are consistent with unity at a 95 % confidence
level.
Some point to
aerosols (but that is not very plausible, as that should give an increase since 1975
for Europe and in part
for North America), but I have the impression that increased water vapour
levels are at the base of this change.
Aerosols are also essential
for cloud formation in the troposphere: They act as condensation nuclei which even in the presence of low
levels of water vapor do enable droplets to form.
Although computer models tend to agree that it's best to inject the
aerosols into the stratosphere above the tropics or subtropics, and that the
aerosols would disperse globally, the models differ on the extent of injection required
for a given
level of cooling, the authors wrote.
Hi Karsten, If you're still reading this, I'm still trying to get my head around the notion that we don't need to see much cooling under the most
aerosol - laden areas
for the direct effect to be strongly negative at the global
level.
If there indeed was this slowdown in sea
level rise,
aerosols and ENSO would seem to possibly account
for everything, including Figure 1 above.
If the low
level aerosols act to actually warm, then it would be a highly regional warming, since the plumes would not have altitude sufficient to hold them aloft
for long.
In the late 1970s the twin threats of global cooling and acid rain were the impetuous
for creating regulations to curb above - ground -
level aerosol / particulate pollution.
Natural Variability Doesn't Account
for Observed Temperature Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in
aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account
for the temperature increases observed since 1880.
That seems the clearest statement yet of the real problem == is there anything that can replace current
levels of air pollution, if high sulfur coal and oil are phased out
for respiratory health reasons, that would make up
for the loss of the
aerosols» negative forcing on global temperature?
The
level of scientific understanding of radiative forcing is ranked by the AR4 (Table 2.11) as high only
for the long - lived greenhouse gases, but is ranked as low
for solar irradiance,
aerosol effects, stratospheric water vapor from CH4, and jet contrails.
Several observational studies (see Chapter 5) support the existence of the first
aerosol indirect effect on low -
level clouds and a negative sign
for the associated radiative forcing, but these studies do not give indications on what a (negative) upper bound of the forcing would be.