The SRES scenarios were constructed to explore future developments in the global environment with special reference to greenhouse gases and
aerosol precursor emissions.
Not exact matches
Indeed, the reduction in the
emission of
precursors to polluting particles (sulphur dioxide) would diminish the concealing effects of Chinese
aerosols, and would speed up warming, unless this effect were to be compensated elsewhere, for instance by significantly reducing long - life greenhouse gas
emissions and «black carbon.»
Global climate models are essential tools for understanding climate change and for developing policy regarding future
emissions of greenhouse gases, primary
aerosol particles, and
aerosol precursor gases.
From the Physical Science Basis: «Shindell et al. (2009) estimated the impact of reactive species
emissions on both gaseous and
aerosol forcing species and found that ozone
precursors, including methane, had an additional substantial climate effect because they increased or decreased the rate of oxidation of SO2 to sulphate
aerosol.
The future concentrations of LLGHGs and the anthropogenic
emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), a chemical
precursor of sulphate
aerosol, are obtained from several scenarios considered representative of low, medium and high
emission trajectories.
• Estimation of future
emissions and biogeochemical cycling (including sources and sinks) of greenhouse gases,
aerosols and
aerosol precursors and projections of future concentrations and radiative properties.
The models used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's «A1B» mid-range projected
emission scenarios for ozone and
aerosol precursors, independently calculated the resulting composition change, and then performed transient simulations to 2050 examining the response to projected changes in the short - lived species and to changes in both long - lived and short - lived species together.
«We use 1280 years of control simulation, with constant preindustrial forcings including constant specified CO2, and a five - member ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 — 2005 including prescribed historical greenhouse gas concentrations, SO2 and other
aerosol -
precursor emissions, land use changes, solar irradiance changes, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes, and volcanic
aerosol (ALL), following the recommended CMIP5 specifications.
Emissions -
Emissions of heat - trapping gases (greenhouse gases), greenhouse - gas
precursors, and
aerosols associated with human activities.
The
emission data on the RCPs were harmonized and downscaled (to a 0.5 × 0.5 grid) for air pollutants, i.e.
aerosols and tropospheric ozone
precursors.
Consequently, the most advanced climate models now require, in addition to concentrations or
emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons),
emissions of reactive gases and
aerosol precursor compounds (SO2, NOx, VOC, BC, OC and NH3), to model atmospheric chemistry and interactions with the climate system.6 For most variables, a sectoral differentiation would improve the quality of the calculations (e.g. from power plants and agricultural burning).
For the runs with different
emission and «climate» years, e.g. Em2000Cl1850,
emissions of
aerosol and ozone
precursors are set to 2000, methane amounts for chemistry are set to 2000, but ozone and methane at 2000 do not affect the radiation (i.e. radiation sees 1850 «climate» conditions for everything but
aerosols).
They hypothesize that natural
emissions of
aerosol precursors will increase in a warming climate, causing a negative feedback so as to dampen the warming.
[Response: For any projection for the future of climate, you obviously need a projection of
emissions (greenhouse gases, ozone and
aerosol precursors, etc.), land use change and so on.
Radiative forcing is a way to quantify an energy imbalance imposed on the climate system either externally (e.g., solar energy output or volcanic
emissions) or by human activities (e.g., deliberate land modification or
emissions of greenhouse gases,
aerosols, and their
precursors).
Thus, we have traditionally studied the impact of carbon dioxide separately from the impact of sulphate
aerosols and separately from the impacts of the
emissions that cause ozone (the «
precursors»).
All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic
Aerosol (SOA): The
emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA
precursor gases are summarized.
We find that the increase in
emissions of inorganic
aerosol precursors is much larger than the corresponding
aerosol increase, reflecting a non-linear atmospheric response.
The climate feedbacks involved with these changes, which are key in understanding the climate system as a whole, include: + the importance of
aerosol absorption on climate + the impact of
aerosol deposition which affects biology and, hence,
emissions of
aerosols and
aerosol precursors via organic nitrogen, organic phosphorus and iron fertilization + the importance of land use and land use changes on natural and anthropogenic
aerosol sources + the SOA sources and impact on climate, with special attention on the impact human activities have on natural SOA formation In order to quantitatively answer such questions I perform simulations of the past, present and future atmospheres, and make comparisons with measurements and remote sensing data, all of which help understand, evaluate and improve the model's parameterizations and performance, and our understanding of the Earth system.
These results suggest that efforts to mitigate atmosphere - related environmental damages should target a broad set of
emissions including CO2, methane and
aerosol / ozone
precursors.
Google «historic SO2
emissions» (an important
precursor to anthropogenic
aerosol) and the first document to come up is this one.
[Reply: Knowledge of industrial output and typical
emissions of said industries; knowledge of
emissions of SO2 and other
aerosol precursors and the relation with
aerosol properties.