On shorter time scales, however, changes in heat storage (i.e., ocean heat uptake or release) can
affect global mean temperature.
It's long been known that El Niño variability
affects the global mean temperature anomalies.
And a second one that explains the cold Eurasian winters, but without
affecting the global mean temperature.
Since the heat is just moved around, with Eurasian cold linked to a correspondingly warmer Arctic, this hardly
affects the global mean temperature — unless you're looking at a data set with a large data gap in the Arctic...
This bend in the jet draws warm air poleward and cool air southward without greatly
affecting the global mean temperature.
Not exact matches
Even the most optimistic estimates of the effects of contemporary fossil fuel use suggest that
mean global temperature will rise by a minimum of 2 °C before the end of this century and that CO2 emissions will
affect climate for tens of thousands of years.
Regional differences in
temperature are more strongly
affected by weather dynamics than the
global mean.
Global warming will also
mean more forest fires; hurricanes hitting cities that are at present too far north of the equator to be
affected by them; tropical diseases spreading beyond their present zones; the extinction of species unable to adapt to warmer
temperatures; retreating glaciers and melting polar icecaps; and rising seas inundating coastal areas.
The adjustments are unlikely to significantly
affect estimates of century - long trends in
global -
mean temperatures, as the data before, 1940 and after the mid-1960s are not expected to require further corrections for changes from uninsulated bucket to engine room intake measurements.
The occurrence of El Ninos in particular years, and their strength, will somewhat
affect the
global and tropical
mean temperatures, but unless El Nino starts doing something really, really different, this effect is likely to be much smaller than the
temperature increase due to doubling CO2.
Would a higher or indeed lower absolute
mean global temperature now
affect this forcing as
temperature increased due to CO2 in the future or is the effect minimal.
An increase in data coverage will
affect the estimated variance and one - year autocorrelation associated with the
global mean temperature, which also should influence the the metric.
You will still SEE an increase in
temperatures, but because of the poor localisation the variability is much higher and the effect of small - scale (compared to
global) forcings that
affect only the region you have measurements for
mean that to get the signal from the noise requires more time.
-- «But
global warming very definitely DOES
affect the
temperature of the tropical free troposphere, so it is not possible to conclude, as alas many have, that increasing SST per se
means increasing tropical cyclone intensity (though it usually does signify more TC - related rain).»
Your hypothesis that the record of
global mean temperatures might have been
affected by the odd warm hour on a spring day here and there has a very low probability of being correct, given the vast amount of data that goes into the
global mean, from stations in all pats of the world (from the fully dark Antarctic winter days to the fully illuminated Arctic summers, desert and equatorial forest sites etc etc).
The energy flow diagrams of Trenberth et al and Stephens et al show 3 mechanisms by which a warming Earth surface can warm the troposphere and restore radiative balance: it is not reasonable to assert a priori that two of them can't matter in calculating the
global mean temperature after a doubling of CO2 concentration, when even a little study shows that all of them will be
affected.
Figure A illustrates how 1 C of
global warming might
affect the annual
mean temperature over the Mediterranean Basin.
The dropped minus signs were said to
affect the «
global mean temperature «by a mere 0.02 C.
The March 2010
global mean temperature was
affected by about 2/100 of a degree Celsius, well below the margin of error (about 15/100 of a degree for monthly
global means).
«Since geoengineering would not
affect the climate the same way [as mitigation], a lower
global mean temperature anomaly achieved using geoengineering does not necessarily lead to lower aggregate climate risks.
This is close to the warming of 1.09 °C (0.86 — 1.31 °C) observed in
global mean land
temperatures over the period 1951 — 2010, which, in contrast to China's recorded
temperature change, is only weakly
affected by urban warming influences.
The record
temperatures occurred despite a moderate occurrence of La Niña, a phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean that tends to lead to cooler
temperatures at the surface,
affecting the
global mean.
The adjustments are unlikely to significantly
affect estimates of century - long trends in
global -
mean temperatures, [don't complain, the
global warming was there before and after this round of adjustments] as the data before, 1940 and after the mid-1960s are not expected to require further corrections for changes from uninsulated bucket to engine room intake measurements [except by Karl (2015)-RSB-.