But, when you actually measure the predictions that climate scientists have made
against observations of how the climate has already changed, you find the exact opposite: a pattern «of under - rather than over-prediction» emerges.
The researchers plan to incorporate information from the cloud - resolving model simulations that have been evaluated
against observations in this study into climate model parameterizations of deep convection using probability distribution functions of environmental factors.
We haven't always appreciated the level of importance that should be attached to getting enough sleep, but as the scientific studies stack up in recent times, it is very hard to
argue against the observation that getting the right amount of sleep, is a key aspect of achieving a healthy lifestyle.
The team evaluated the simulated streamflow
globally against the observations from 1,674 major river gauge stations worldwide and systematically examined possible sources of model biases, which can impact the range of answers in simulations.
My argument is that you haven't given examples of predictions that could be said to have failed, because we have not yet reached the timescales when the consequences of those predictions could be
matched against observations.
With this second category, which your quote from an unnamed UN official is an example of, I don't see how you can say this is a failed prediction before the timescale in which those preditions might be expected to be
testable against observations.
It also seems unfair to say that the model - weighting approach is better because it doesn't rely on the existence of a linear relationship when you * chose * the variable to compare
against observations on the basis of that variable providing a good linear fit to your predictand.
There has to be a better way of rationalizing model
output against observations, whether in the period 1910 to 1945, or the last 15 years.
For example, C10 show results from different experimental approaches involving perturbing model parameters one - at - a-time, incorporating information from observations to produce members which evaluate
well against observations and exploring parameter space comprehensively in order to fit statistical emulators.
Furthermore, the team tested the
theory against observations of NASA's 34 - year - old Pioneer 10 spacecraft, which appears about 400,000 kilometres away from its expected location in the outer solar system.