The first is that adding a betting
against the public filter definitely enhances the value of betting on American League teams during interleague play.
All of these strategies improve significantly when we apply a betting
against the public filter, so we wanted to focus on contrarian home dogs and determine whether they are offering value this week.
Instead, we opted to look at very basic betting
against the public filters.
As you can see, underdogs have done an exceptional job of covering the spread during the postseason, but as we begin to add our betting
against the public filters, we can improve our expected returns.
Not exact matches
Sacramento also fits into a key
filter of ours mentioned in this season's Betting
Against the
Public article, getting 10 + points on the road while receiving less than 35 % of bets.
We then utilized the «Moneyline %»
filter to determine whether betting
against the
public had been historically profitable.
To summarize, we've found success in the NHL Playoffs betting
against the
public and
filtering the road teams rather than home teams.
After discovering value betting
against the
public at the 30 % level, our goal was to layer additional
filters to improve the overall ROI of our system.
When we add our «betting
against the
public»
filter to road teams getting < 40 % of moneyline bets, the ROI excels to over 40 % and nearly +28 units won (overall record of 34 - 35).
Although it's still advantageous, bettors have to consider a variety of additional
filters which we cover in our 2016 MLB Betting
Against the
Public report.
The first step to creating a good reverse line movement betting system is to make sure we are betting
against the
public, so we selected the «spread %»
filter and chose to examine those receiving 40 % or less of
public bets.
Before the start of every season we reveal the optimal betting percentage threshold when betting
against the
public while trying to exploit the newest
filters that have been added to our Bet Labs software.
Although this system has been historically profitable and shows a definitive edge for betting
against the
public, there are a number of
filters we knew could be added to easily increase our return on investment.
Based on this criterion — in addition to a handful of other
filters — both teams fit our 2014 MLB Betting
Against the
Public betting system.
Filtering this even further and solely betting
against teams receiving 80 % or more of
public betting action produced a slightly less profit of +20.44 units, but the massive reduction in the number of games bet more than doubles the ROI to 9.2 % at this level.
Betting
against the
public has been profitable when we look at very basic
filters (teams receiving less than half of all
public bets), but the results as we examine increasingly lopsided bet games are quite surprising.
We then used our «spread change from open to close»
filter to look at instances where a team became a bigger favorite or a smaller underdog, thus moving
against the
public betting percentages.
Betting
against the
public still works in the postseason but we need to adjust our
filters to get a larger sample.