Spencer analyzed 90 climate models
against surface temperature and satellite temperature data, and found that more than 95 percent of the models «have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).»
First, a graph showing the annual mean anomalies from the CMIP3 models plotted
against the surface temperature records from the HadCRUT4, NCDC and GISTEMP products (it really doesn't matter which).
Why are you correlating CFC's
against surface temperatures as an indication of what might be occurring rather than against total change in the heat content of the entire system?
I can think of three claims in particular that skeptics have made in recent years
against the surface temperature records that have been refuted by the BEST results:
Not exact matches
Shine the flashlight
against a
surface and the colour shows you a real - time
temperature reading.
The challenge during design was to handle the thermal expansion of the nose shell and to insulate the aluminium substructure
against the high
surface temperature within a very small distance of 50 mm.
The supposed contamination of the
surface temperature record is always used by skeptics to argue
against GW.
However, we are still up
against the second part of the «Hockey Stick» the alleged
surface temperature record, as promulgated by Jones, Hansen and Karl., which continues to claim that the current
temperature is «unprecedented»
billev You seem to be assuming that the clearest correlation between rising CO2 and some climate signal will be
against the
surface air
temperature record.
Plotting GHG forcing (7) from ice core data (27)
against temperature shows that global climate sensitivity including the slow
surface albedo feedback is 1.5 °C per W / m2 or 6 °C for doubled CO2 (Fig. 2), twice as large as the Charney fast - feedback sensitivity.»
It is also crucial in controlling your
temperature, having the role of an insulator
against loss of body heat and the flow of warm or cool blood from and to the skin
surface which can be drastically hotter or colder in comparison to your internal body
temperature.
Vacuum forming, or «vacuforming», is a simplified version of thermoforming, whereby a sheet of plastic is heated to a forming
temperature, stretched onto a single -
surface mold, and forced
against the mold by a vacuum and formed into a permanent object, such as a hard mask that doesn't lose its shape.
Batteries have what is called a
surface charge, which is probably the reason yours tested 12.6 V — you should wait several hours at room
temperature prior to testing the voltage of the battery to compare
against the 12.6 V / 12.7 V standard.
Penetrating into the sebaceous glands, the active compound is distributed evenly over the entire
surface of the skin, and now the poison is not going to be washed off with water, not afraid of changes in
temperature and is maintained at the desired concentration at all times until the dog wears a collar
against fleas.
The supposed contamination of the
surface temperature record is always used by skeptics to argue
against GW.
Set
against this is the
surface temperature record from the East African Highlands, reported by [Hay et al 2002].
The model variables that are evaluated
against all sorts of observations and measurements range from solar radiation and precipitation rates, air and sea
surface temperatures, cloud properties and distributions, winds, river runoff, ocean currents, ice cover, albedos, even the maximum soil depth reached by plant roots (seriously!).
I was referring to the plot of absolute average
surface temperatures from different models
against the projected rate of warming for 2011 to 2070 from those same models; this is the next to last graphic from Gavin's post.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go
against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
The models are gauged
against the following observation - based datasets: Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997) for precipitation (1980 — 1999), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40 - year reanalysis (ERA40; Uppala et al., 2005) for sea level pressure (1980 — 1999) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Jones et al., 1999) for
surface temperature (1961 — 1990).
The study — «Possible Artifacts of Data Biases in the Recent Global
Surface Warming Hiatus» — was published by Science magazine in June 2015 and pushed back
against assertions from other research groups that found a pause in rising global
temperatures from 1998 to 2012, which goes
against climate change advocates» insistence that the earth's
temperature has been on a steady incline for decades.
For me, the idea that
surface air
temperature slavishly follows forcing goes
against everything I know about complex natural flow systems.
I downloaded these data and plotted them
against the «globally and annually averaged land and sea
surface temperature anomaly» record of HadCRUT3, to see if there was any correlation.
The satellite data does raise some issues — for example it shows that the link between tropospheric and
surface level
temperatures is not as tight as was once thought, but the idea that it represents serious evidence
against the hypothesis of human - induced global warming has been thoroughly refuted.
In a sense, gravity «props up» the
surface end of the plot of
temperature against altitude, rather than Hansen's concept that atmospheric (back) radiation does it.
and here are global sea
surface temperatures (x10) plotted
against the Nino3.4 region average from the tropical E. Pacific which suggests a relationship between SSTs and global
temperatures which lag the former.
Figure 6 shows Clive Best's three IPCC levels of projection from 1990
against actual
surface (blue) and satellite (green)
temperature.
We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr
against estimates of low latitude sea
surface temperature for the same period.
Indeed Bob Carter argues very forcibly that there is nothing in the
surface temperature record of the last 150 years that is in any way unusual looked at
against the records of geological time.
The accuracy of the
surface temperature record can be independently validated
against satellite records.
To further quantify this effect, whether or not my reasoning is objected too, then at the very least, a correlation over the period of the air
temperature trend needs to be carried out
against surface sea
temperature anomalies in both the Northern Atlantic and N Pacific.
In climate - change discussions, two Princeton professors go
against the grain By Mark F. Bernstein The issue of climate change, or global warming, has become a rallying cry: The Earthâ $ ™ s
surface temperatures are Ârising due to increased levels of carbon dioxide and other Âgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere, much of it produced by human activity.
Therefore, are you sure you weren't seeing weather - caused variations in sea
surface temperatures and mistook that for southward migration
against the flow?
Clement et al (2009), Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low - Level Cloud Feedback — regressed cloud amounts
against sea
surface temperature.
Linear regression
against the record of observed near -
surface temperatures demonstrated that a solar signal existed, and that it was amplified.
«the idea that
surface air
temperature slavishly follows forcing goes
against everything I know about complex natural flow systems.
Much the same problem as
surface temperature records unless very special sensors and exposures are used with frequent calibration
against standards.
The figure below shows the change in precipitation and evaporation (which have to balance globally)
against the global mean
surface temperature change.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's
surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of
temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates of change of
temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare
against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average
temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
«What he does not do, and should have done is plotted the change in the effect over time
against some emperical measure of either
temperature or
surface heat content»
What he does not do, and should have done is plotted the change in the effect over time
against some emperical measure of either
temperature or
surface heat content (either OHC directly for when we have the data, or glacial extents, or sea levels).
You left out that Hsiang et al actually think there is a causal relationship bewteen
Surface Air
Temperature and crime — both crime
against persons and property crimes.
Second, orbital instrumental observations provide only a recent record of land
surface area
temperature assessment, and the methods involved had to be calibrated
against the prevailing standards of proximal thermometric determination, the widely - ranged system of meteorological thermometers in these United States providing (as others here have observed) a sort of «gold standard» in terms of technology, maintenance, and reliability as compared with similar broadly spaced systems of monitoring stations.
To any extent that the records of «satellite data» have been used to create assessments of land
surface temperatures by way of adjustment to calibrate those observations
against the information harvested from the meteorological thermometers which are the subjects of the SurfaceStations.org study, the error has crept into the assessments of the satellite data.
To achieve an average
surface air
temperature, or a global mean
temperature, first establish a baseline for the measurements; and then weigh new data
against the base line.
If we regress the annual rate of CO2 change
against temperature, we are likely to see a significant short term
temperature effect as warming reduces the solubility of CO2 in the
surface ocean layers (with effects on terrestrial sinks as well).
He argues
against its use as a policy target, because it is not directly related to what is experienced by people living on the earth's
surface, and the
surface temperature data base goes back further in time and is more extensive.
We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics
against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global
surface temperature.
They would if possible designate a «gold standard» control
against which to test the outcome objectively (satellite
temperatures or pristine reliable
surface stations?).
They calibrated a combined terrestrial (tree ring, ice core and historical documentary indicator) and marine (coral) multi-proxy climate network
against dominant patterns of 20th century global
surface temperature.