Sentences with phrase «air temperature trend of»

To remove this difference in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of change, the authors scaled the vertical profiles of ocean temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical ocean layer) with the global surface air temperature trend of each period.

Not exact matches

With documented warmer air temperatures in eastern Canada since the 1970s, there has been a trend of earlier ice melting and less ice in general, explained Lavery.

They estimate that, across about 60 % of the global vegetated area, greening has buffered warming by about 14 %; for the remaining areas, which mostly include boreal zones, LAI trends have amplified the raise in air temperatures, leading to an additional warming of about 10 %.

Researchers found an overall warming trend in air temperature of 0.023 C (0.041 F) per year, and in water temperature of 0.028 C (0.050 F) per year over 51 years.

This is the rise in air temperature expected by the year 2040, if current trends in the use of fossil fuels and forest - burning continue.

Despite the strong warming trend of the past 15 years, worldwide temperatures have risen less than models predict, given the build - up of carbon dioxide in the air to 25 per cent above pre-industrial levels.

Complementary information to the Arctic warming analysis would be using DWT's of the few left Upper Air stations in the Circumpolar zone and crunch up temperature trends of the entire atmosphere, when variances from year to year are very small, but are mostly for the warmer.

I am very cuious if you found a variance between Upper Air and Surface warming... I calculated total amospheric refraction temperatures, ie from data extracted by analyzing optical effects, some of my results show an impressive yearly warming trend, much stronger than the surface based one.

Figure 4 - Spatial variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) trends scaled with the global surface air temperature (SAT) trend for each simulation used in the study.

This animation shows how the same temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long - term global surface air warming trend of 0.16 °C per decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a cooling trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the trend is dominated by short - term noise in the data (blue steps).

A compilation of surface measurements of downward longwave radiation from 1973 to 2008 find an increasing trend of more longwave radiation returning to earth, attributed to increases in air temperature, humidity and atmospheric carbon dioxide (Wang 2009).

Back in 2008, a cottage industry sprang up to assess what impact the Thompson et al related changes would make on the surface air temperature anomalies and trends — with estimates ranging from complete abandonment of the main IPCC finding on attribution to, well, not very much.

411 SG Bolstrom, I am observing a particular trend unlike the recent past, whereas the Arctic air profiles are leaning more adiabatically during winter, this means a whole lot of confusion with respect to temperature trends, namely the high Upper Air should cool as the surface warms, and the reverse, the Upper air warms when heat from the lower atmosphere is transferred upwarair profiles are leaning more adiabatically during winter, this means a whole lot of confusion with respect to temperature trends, namely the high Upper Air should cool as the surface warms, and the reverse, the Upper air warms when heat from the lower atmosphere is transferred upwarAir should cool as the surface warms, and the reverse, the Upper air warms when heat from the lower atmosphere is transferred upwarair warms when heat from the lower atmosphere is transferred upwards.

Complementary information to the Arctic warming analysis would be using DWT's of the few left Upper Air stations in the Circumpolar zone and crunch up temperature trends of the entire atmosphere, when variances from year to year are very small, but are mostly for the warmer.

For a long time now climatologists have been tracking the global average air temperature as a measure of planetary climate variability and trends, even though this metric reflects just a tiny fraction of Earth's net energy or heat content.

The aspect of the paper that has attracted the most attention is the claim that the retreat of the Kilimanjaro summit glaciers can be explained by precipitation reduction, without any compelling need to invoke a warming trend in local air temperature.

There is a difference between peaks and valleys in noisy processes (1998 surface air temperature, 2007 record minimum ice, or shipping at a few small areas on the edges of the Arctic ocean) and CO2 forcing driven trends, especially when different measures.

Even if you restrict the definition of «hiatus» to air temperatures, there are few datasets that actually demonstrate a trend of 0 since circa 2000.

The rate and magnitude of 20th century warming are thus unknowable, and suggestions of an unprecedented trend in 20th century global air temperature are unsustainable.

«We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer - term warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a period to reinforce a point of view.»

[1] Controversy has persisted over the influence of urban warming on reported large - scale surface - air temperature trends.

I am very cuious if you found a variance between Upper Air and Surface warming... I calculated total amospheric refraction temperatures, ie from data extracted by analyzing optical effects, some of my results show an impressive yearly warming trend, much stronger than the surface based one.

Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).

But as the above links show, the air temperature data trend seems to conflict with the permafrost temperature trend for much of Alaska.

One simply can not do arithmetic (least squares trends) on the temperature of environmental air and expect the result to reflect the changes in heat content.

For example: Comparison of trends and low - frequency variability in CRU, ERA - 40, and NCEP / NCAR analyses of surface air temperature, Simmons et al, JGR 2004

And yet, when you do trends of global data you are averaging air temperatures over intervals where the heat content is not continuous, and thus the trend that is the average temperature does not show the actual trend of the heat content.

Kevin Trenberth is now arguing that the reason observed air temperature trends don't match modeled trends is because of «missing heat» in the oceans.

Although the rate of warming of surface air and lower troposphere temperatures appear to have slowed over the past few years, the same could be said at any virtually any point in time by cherrypicking short - term noise and ignoring the long - term trend (Figure 2).

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

«Surface air temperature alone is inadequate to monitor trends of surface heating and cooling.

Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using regional observations of sea ice area and global NCEP air temperature, sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend of projecting below - average summer sea ice conditions for the Arctic.

Have a look here for a more realistic attribution of the 20th century temperature trends based on more than just hot air.

Animation 1 compares the GISS land surface air temperature trends to UAH lower troposphere temperature trends over land for the period of 1979 to 2012.

I've been looking at the Hansen material which involves tropical oceans and have had occasion to review some of the temperature data sets, including Agudelho and Curry, which is an interesting and useful comparison of satellite and surface trends — a topic in the air from the US CCSP report.

Snowfall varies across the region, comprising less than 10 % of total precipitation in the south, to more than half in the north, with as much as two inches of water available in the snowpack at the beginning of spring melt in the northern reaches of the river basins.81 When this amount of snowmelt is combined with heavy rainfall, the resulting flooding can be widespread and catastrophic (see «Cedar Rapids: A Tale of Vulnerability and Response»).82 Historical observations indicate declines in the frequency of high magnitude snowfall years over much of the Midwest, 83 but an increase in lake effect snowfall.61 These divergent trends and their inverse relationships with air temperatures make overall projections of regional impacts of the associated snowmelt extremely difficult.

There has been no material trend in surface air temperature during the last 10 years when taken in isolation, but 13 of the 14 warmest years on record have occurred since 1995.

These issues, which are either not recognized at all in the assessments or are understated, include: - the identification of a warm bias in nighttime minimum temperatures - poor siting of the instrumentation to measure temperatures - the influence of trends in surface air water vapor content on temperature trends - the quantification of uncertainties in the homogenization of surface temperature data, and the influence of land use / land cover change on surface temperature trends.

The scenarios that scientists are looking at depend on measurements of air and water temperatures taken at hundreds of sites around the world, as well as complex models about how trends will evolve in the coming decades.

Surface warming: «Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset»

For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all recent changes in land surface temperatures and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric temperatures and deep sea temperatures and sea ice extent and sea ice volume and sea ice density and moisture content in the air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures of extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural variability, and that I can now see that as the result of a statistical modeling of the trends as associated with natural phenomena.

It is that whilst there is ice to melt, temperature of either air or water in that region will NOT show any particular trend.

· Sakaguchi, K., X. Zeng, and M. A. Brunke (2012), The hindcast skill of the CMIP ensembles for the surface air temperature trend, J. Geophys.

The changes produced a decrease of 0.006 °C / decade for the 1880 to 2014 trend of the annual mean land surface air temperature rather than the 0.003 °C / decade increase reported by NCEI.

To further quantify this effect, whether or not my reasoning is objected too, then at the very least, a correlation over the period of the air temperature trend needs to be carried out against surface sea temperature anomalies in both the Northern Atlantic and N Pacific.

Surface measurements of downward longwave radiation A compilation of surface measurements of downward longwave radiation from 1973 to 2008 find an increasing trend of more longwave radiation returning to earth, attributed to increases in air temperature, humidity and atmospheric carbon dioxide (Wang 2009).

For the US MIDWEST, the air masses from the Pacific first have to pass more than a thousand kilometres of mountains and thus the temperature trends in the US Midwest have unusually little noise from ocean air temperature trends.

In Fig 22 you state that «air masses from the Pacific first have to pass more than a thousand kilometres of mountains and thus the temperature trends in the US Midwest have unusually little noise from ocean air temperature trends.»

Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.