The annual
airborne fraction increased at a rate of 0.25 ± 0.21 % per year over the period 1959 — 2006.
They found
the airborne fraction increased by 3 ± 2 % per decade.
But is
the airborne fraction increasing?
Not exact matches
Empirical data for the CO2 «
airborne fraction», the ratio of observed atmospheric CO2
increase divided by fossil fuel CO2 emissions, show that almost half of the emissions is being taken up by surface (terrestrial and ocean) carbon reservoirs [187], despite a substantial but poorly measured contribution of anthropogenic land use (deforestation and agriculture) to
airborne CO2 [179], [216].
The only way this relationship could be linear would be if an
increase in
airborne fraction cancels out the logarithmic relationship between CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing.
As far as we know, the «
airborne fraction» (percentage of emitted CO2 remaining atmospheric) has not been changing greatly over the past century, and if any change is occurring, the
fraction is perhaps
increasing very slightly due to greater saturation of the oceanic sink.
Because of this uncertainty, scientists are currently debating whether the
airborne fraction is steady at 43 % or slightly
Increasing from 43 %.
There are studies both ways but, I can direct you to Is the
airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
increasing?
As Knorr did find, there is no sign that the
increase in the atmosphere (the «
airborne fraction») changed in ratio to the emissions, thus the sink rate didn't change in ratio too.
If what you claim is true, then the
airborne fraction would be
increasing.
Sherlock matty; ok, if Ferdinand only means the last 160 years nature has been a net sink and there has been natural variation before I'll go with that but he still has 2 dominant unknowns in natural emissions and sinks; you can't deduce them from the
increase or human emissions; and I may have missed his attitude towards Knorr which shows the
airborne fraction of ACO2 constant; I must confess I have had my ups and downs with interpreting Knorr but I still think it shows that natural CO2, not ACO2, is contributing the bulk of the
increase in CO2.
The change of emission rate in 2000 from 1.5 % yr - 1 to 3.1 % yr - 1 (figure 1), other things being equal, would have caused a sharp
increase of the
airborne fraction (the simple reason being that a rapid source
increase provides less time for carbon to be moved downward out of the ocean's upper layers).
Furthermore, they found «
increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long - term (50 - year)
increase in the
airborne fraction (AF) of CO2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions.»
The
increase in the
airborne fraction as temperatures
increase is by no means an established fact; if anything the historical record says the
airborne fraction is stable or declining very slightly.
«The proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions depends in part on a cancellation of the saturation of carbon sinks with
increasing cumulative emissions (leading to a larger
airborne fraction of cumulative emissions for higher emissions) and the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on atmospheric CO2 concentration [leading to a smaller
increase in radiative forcing per unit
increase in atmospheric CO2 at higher CO2 concentrations; Matthews et al. (2009)-RSB-.
Empirical data for the CO2 «
airborne fraction», the ratio of observed atmospheric CO2
increase divided by fossil fuel CO2 emissions, show that almost half of the emissions is being taken up by surface (terrestrial and ocean) carbon reservoirs [187], despite a substantial but poorly measured contribution of anthropogenic land use (deforestation and agriculture) to
airborne CO2 [179], [216].
Since the start of the twenty - first century, the researchers state, «the
airborne fraction has been declining (− 2.2 % per year), despite the rapid
increase in anthropogenic emissions.»
• All C4MIP models project an
increase in the
airborne fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions through the 21st century.
Climate change
increases the
fraction of emissions that remain
airborne by suppressing ocean uptake, enhancing soil respiration and reducing plant NPP.
• Climate change alone will tend to suppress both land and ocean carbon uptake,
increasing the
fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions that remain
airborne and producing a positive feedback to climate change.
If we spread out our emissions over time, the
airborne fraction would tend to drop because the C already added is still being redistributed (though more slowly)-- on the other hand, other effects could
increase the
airborne fraction, at least in the «short» - term).
To go from the amount of CO2 emitted to the actual
increase in the atmosphere, one needs to know what
fraction of the emissions remains in the air: the «
airborne fraction».