Consider the hemispherical distribution of land vs water to gain a sense of the size of the mismatch (and the subsequent relative changes in
albedo between glaciation and interglacial).
Also, I don't disagree with the overall finding that there's an Arctic Amplification due to the difference in
albedo between sea - ice and open water.
33K appears to be accurate + -10 % going by average measured temperature of the surface of the moon and the surface of the earth after taking into account difference in
albedo between the two where the inaccuracy is almost soley due to lack of accuracy in determining the average albedo of the earth.
Figure 1 shows change in clear - sky
albedo between the mean of the last five Septembers (2007 — 2011) and the mean of the first five Septembers (2000 — 2004) of the CERES record.
The modus operandi is the huge difference in
albedo between the two phases.
For example, the optical thickness of the CO2 in the atmosphere (if you see an error in this list of things independent of climate, see below), the incident solar radiation and it's distribution over time and space (latitude), variations in surface
albedo between ocean, rock, vegetation, etc.).
Not exact matches
The impact of grain size on
albedo — the ratio
between reflected and incoming solar radiation — is strong in the infrared range, where humans can't see, but satellite instruments can detect the change.
«In future climate scenarios, where even more melting is predicted, it is crucial that we are able to better discriminate
between all factors affecting
albedo.»
The
albedo of fresh snow is typically
between 80 and 90 percent whereas the
albedo of the ocean surface is less than 20 percent.
So the real choice is
between exploring
albedo modification openly or in relative secrecy, he says: «I believe in sunshine and democracy, and I really think this should be done by the U.S. government and in a transparent way.»
They found that combinations of increased vegetation and
albedo could cut into projected increases in heat deaths, reducing them
between 40 and 99 percent.
The team's computer simulations suggested that the soot can cause a decrease of
between 1.6 and 4.1 percent in the glacier's
albedo — a measure of its sunlight - reflecting «whiteness» — and that the resulting heating can cause up to a 24 percent increase in the annual snowmelt, Yasunari reported here Monday at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
It confirmed that the mean
albedo, or surface reflectivity, of the Arctic ice zone in late summer declined over an almost three - decade period,
between 1982 and 2009.
Regardless of how hot the Sahara may feel when you stand in it, the difference in radiative effect
between it and rainforest is in its higher
albedo, reflecting more direct sunlight, the darker forests absorb more heat.
I can't tell where you got the figure but -3.5 W / m2 is about right for current understanding of «boundary condition» land
albedo change
between pre-industrial and LGM.
Well, something must be there, because main conservation principles are unable to account for the observed extremely precise match
between all sky hemispheric
albedoes, while clear sky
albedoes are vastly different.
Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface
albedo feedbacks, is 6 °C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states
between glacial conditions and ice - free Antarctica.»
On the possibility of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction
between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased
albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
So, clouds both warm and cool, and their overall effect upon climate depends upon the balance
between albedo cooling and greenhouse warming.
But let me expand a bit on the larger point, about the relationship
between albedo and cloud feedback.
Please note shortwave
albedo of Earth has large spatio - temporal variations, but its annual global average is restricted to a narrow range, even if it is not determined by simple material constraints, but by an intricate interplay
between many internal degrees of freedom.
Your illogic is to think that this somehow would be some sort of legitimate argument that the (inverse) cause and effect relationship
between albedo and global temperature established by the laws of physics is false.
I meant that the attribution of the forcing
between Ice
albedo, CO2, etc. might be dependent on the temperature.
The correlation
between ISCCP - reconstructed (delta - p - star in equation 1) and observed apparent
albedo is 0.6 and the relationship
between the reconstructed and observed apparent
albedo / ES look more like a cloud with a great deal of scatter rather than a straight line indicative of a close relationaship (Pall» e et al..
Re comment # 4: «There is nothing regarding those observations that can distinguish
between natural and anthropogenic changes in the Earth's
albedo».
As an analogy, if I told you that I was going to paint my white car black and that I expected it would get hotter on sunny days as a result, you would probably start asking questions about what the temperature of the paint was when I applied it and how those molecules heated up or cooled down, ignoring the relevant factor which is this: By painting the car black, I am changing the car's
albedo and thus changing the radiative balance
between the car and the sun on sunny days.
With respect to Mr. Best's post, which I may be unfairly implying is a good example, one of the fallacious but clever debate manipulations utilized by CC deniers and (way too many) lukewarmers is to focus relentlessly (often inaccurately) on climatological research frontiers such as climate sensitivity, or relations
between evaporation, cloudiness, and global
albedo.
There is nothing regarding those observations that can distinguish
between natural and anthropogenic changes in the Earth's
albedo.
Analysis of observed declines in sea ice and snow coverage from 1979 to 2008 suggests that the NH
albedo feedback is
between 0.3 and 1.1 W m — 2 °C — 1 (Flanner et al., 2011).
Thus, there isn't a great deal of difference
between the
albedo values during the seasonal peak in insolation during the melt season.
I can't tell where you got the figure but -3.5 W / m2 is about right for current understanding of «boundary condition» land
albedo change
between pre-industrial and LGM.
Claquin et al's model - derived findings show a change in tropical atmospheric forcing of «-- 2.2 to — 3.2 W m — 2»
between PI and LGM earth, due to the increased
albedo of atmospheric dust.
Isn't there an even bigger issue that approx half of the temperature amplitude
between glacial and interglacial isn't actually due to CO2 or other GHG, but to
albedo changes (ice
albedo feedback)?
Depending on meridional heat transport, when freezing temperatures reach deep enough towards low - latitudes, the ice -
albedo feedback can become so effective that climate sensitivity becomes infinite and even negative (implying unstable equilibrium for any «ice - line» (latitude marking the edge of ice)
between the equator and some other latitude).
These findings are remarkable insofar as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary
albedo, such as sulphur emissions and / or land - use changes, or natural variations in insolation and CO2 concentration could trigger abrupt transitions
between different monsoon regimes.
Regardless of how hot the Sahara may feel when you stand in it, the difference in radiative effect
between it and rainforest is in its higher
albedo, reflecting more direct sunlight, the darker forests absorb more heat.
[Response: What if we postulate a feedback
between ozone depletion, which causes people to get better sun tans, warming the climate due to decreasing planetary
albedo?
Both are related to feedback mechanisms which can amplify or dampen initial changes, such as the connection
between temperature and the
albedo associated with sea - ice and snow.
The energy flowing from the sun is intercepted by the earth with energy density described by the «solar constant «(S0 = 1366W / m2), and the amount of energy intercepted is the product
between this flux density and the earth's disc (minus the reflected light due to the planet's
albedo: A ~ 0.3).
The difference
between direct and diffuse solar energy is important because the
albedo is a function of zenith angle, which is especially so for the direct SW beam impinging on water.
These data indicate a strong difference
between the
albedo of sea - ice and open water, with some reduction in sea - ice
albedo when melt ponds are expected.
The below table from the NAS report highlights a number of key differences
between CDR and
Albedo Modification proposals.
They estimate that increasing the reflectance — commonly known as
albedo — of every urban area by 0.1 will give a CO2 offset
between 130 and 150 billion tonnes.
Intercomparison
Between in situ and AVHRR Polar Pathfinder - derived Surface
Albedo over Greenland Remote Sensing of the Environment 75 (3): 360 - 374.
One of the major areas, well covered in other posts on Climate Etc., involve the very skimpy knowledge - base on the relationship
between atmospheric heating («forcing») and cloud
albedo.
Isostatic rebound in response to glacier retreat (unloading), increase in local salinity (i.e., δ18Osw), have been attributed to increased volcanic activity at the onset of Bølling — Allerød, are associated with the interval of intense volcanic activity, hinting at a interaction
between climate and volcanism - enhanced short - term melting of glaciers, possibly via
albedo changes from particle fallout on glacier surfaces.
What difference
between energy absorption and radiation do we need to induce in order to make the air temperature increase by 1 degree C, assuming no change in
albedo?
The CESM experiments reveal a quadratic relationship
between extra-tropical Pacific
albedo and the root - mean - square - error in equatorial SSTs — a relationship with which the CMIP5 models generally agree.
One of the most puzzling things is that the heating
between 1980 and 2000 seems to have been driven by a large increase in net received shortwave radiation due to
albedo reduction, rather than by any observed reduction in outgoing longwave radiation.
The real «flat plate» GHE is
between 11 and 17 K depending on your estimate of present
albedo and planetary emissivity in the absence of GHGs.