More surface warming than cloud - height warming is indicative of
surface albedo change and / or fewer clouds and / or increase in solar «constant».
But, pertaining to whatever your argument may be, what do natural cycles have to do with anthropogenic forcing and increased radiative forcing or human
induced albedo changes or the like?
The
main albedo change in the last 60 years is probably ice / snow loss, which is another positive feedback to the change and not independent.
So it is hard to see
much albedo change and without a large forcing, there isn't much reason for big change in size of ice shelves.
Many of the feedbacks are believed to be the same whether the cause of warming is greenhouse gases, solar or
albedo changes from melting ice.
The SAF differences between the models are shown to stem mainly from the sensitivity of the surface albedo to surface temperature rather from the impact of a given surface
albedo change on the shortwave budget.
North has lots of land where ice can expand
so albedo changes is a large forcing and this can cool oceans in northern hemisphere which is both limited in extent and between cold land.
Scripps graduate student Kristina Pistone and climate scientists Ian Eisenman and Veerabhadran Ramanathan used satellite measurements to calculate Arctic
albedo changes associated with the changing sea ice cover.
The black line, reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data, «is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning as it does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary albedo and does not include aerosol related
albedo changes such as associated with Mt. Pinatubo, or human emissions of sulfates for instance» (Real Climate).
Paper: Reference: Yun Qian, William I. Gustafson Jr., L. Ruby Leung, Steven J. Ghan, Effects of soot - induced
snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western U.S. based on WRF chemistry and regional climate simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2009, doi: 10.1029 / 2008JD011039
They also compared their results to model simulations to assess the capability of computer models to portray and
forecast albedo changes.
Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than
do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered.
2) The high altitude of the Antarctic plateau keeps local weather conditions below freezing throughout the summer,
limiting albedo changes in summer;
3) The global
albedo changes necessary to produce observed climate variability and the changes in solar energy input to the oceans can be explained by the latitudinal shifts (beyond normal seasonal variation) of all the air circulation systems and in particular the net latitudinal positions of the three main cloud bands namely the two generated by the mid latitude jet streams plus the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
The earthshine - trained ISCCP reconstruction of the albedo is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning as it does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary albedo and does not include aerosol
related albedo changes such as associated with Mt. Pinatubo, or human emissions of sulfates for instance.
A few productive search terms will give him a good start:
tundra albedo change «sea ice» algae «primary productivity» permafrost
I trust the claims that we need to
consider albedo change to determine ESS but it sure looks like the dominant factor by far is CO2