The black line, reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data, «is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning as it does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary albedo and does not include aerosol related
albedo changes such as associated with Mt. Pinatubo, or human emissions of sulfates for instance» (Real Climate).
Not exact matches
For one thing, the fit neglects lags in the system (
such as those resulting from ocean heat uptake) and it also neglects
changes in
albedo and other radiative factors.
The
change in
albedo for
such a long period of time each year is bound to cause all sorts of weird weather that we have never before experienced.
Perhaps it's worth mentioning that other feedbacks can come into play, too,
such as water vapor and
albedo changes.
These findings are remarkable insofar as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary
albedo,
such as sulphur emissions and / or land - use
changes, or natural variations in insolation and CO2 concentration could trigger abrupt transitions between different monsoon regimes.
In fact, if the physics - based understanding of «equilibrium sensitivity» to any forcing is too low, then not only will CO2 have a greater effect, so too will all other forcings,
such as:
changes in the sun, in cloud cover, in
albedo, etc..
Both are related to feedback mechanisms which can amplify or dampen initial
changes,
such as the connection between temperature and the
albedo associated with sea - ice and snow.
In their latest Science paper submittal Jim Hansen, et al. argue that we must reduce atmospheric CO2 to below 350 ppm because so - called «slow feedbacks»
such as
changes in ice sheet
albedo are occurring much faster than expected.
How can they make
such a claim when
albedo change alone exceeds the entire
change due to CO2?
At best, maybe jetfuel would be on to something if the
change in seasonal ice / snow cover in Canada is measurably altering the
albedo, as scaddenp notes, but I doubt we'll see jetfuel come up with any evidence showing the existence or magnitude of
such an effect.
Earth system and carbon - cycle feedbacks
such as the release of carbon from thawing permafrost or vegetation
changes affecting terrestrial carbon storage or
albedo may further extend and possibly amplify warming (6).
Its warming effect, however, is simultaneously amplified and dampened by positive and negative feedbacks
such as increased water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas), reduced
albedo, which is a measure of Earth's reflectivity,
changes in cloud characteristics, and CO2 exchanges with the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.
By so doing, we are ignoring other low frequency forcings (
such as long wavelength
changes in TSI and
albedo) which would have to be included to make any sense of the data.
Forcing agents
such as aerosols, ozone and land
albedo changes are highly heterogeneous spatially and temporally.
Appreciable
changes in climate are the result of
changes in the energy balance of the Earth, which requires «external» forcings,
such as
changes in solar output,
albedo, and atmospheric greenhouse gases.
The Arctic provides an early indicator of global climate
change through feedback systems associated with factors
such as the high
albedo of snow and ice [Holland and Bitz, 2003].
«Since 1997, when Pinatubo's aerosol settled out, the stratosphere has been exceptionally clear... Half or more of the warming since 1995 may due to the lack of large volcanic eruptions... That's about 0.13 °C... The remaining climate
change is presumably caused by other forces,
such as solar variability, El Nino, Atlantic AMO warming in 1995, lower
Albedo and maybe even a little greenhouse gas.»
Broad - scale
changes in vegetation in general, and tree loss in particular, have pronounced effects on climate processes through biogeophysical mechanisms
such as
albedo, evapotranspiration (ET), and carbon dioxide exchange with the atmosphere [11].
Land use influences the climate system in many different ways including direct emissions from land - use
change, hydrological impacts, biogeophysical impacts (
such as
changes in
albedo and surface roughness), and the size of the remaining vegetation stock (influencing CO2 removal from the atmosphere).
There are other factors
such as
albedo change, buildings that diminish surface winds, and anthropogenic heat sources from anthing that consumes fuel or electricity to produce work and waste heat which buildings then help to trap.
«his refusal to calculate a total year energy balance» - At this stage, no
such calculation can be made, because I have calculated in detail only the
changes in the incoming energy (the insolation) as a function of time - of - year and latitude; I have estimated also the effect upon the insolation absorption through a
change in the Arctic
albedo.
The
change of the heat content of the globe (mainly in the oceans) is dH / dt = S (1 - a)-- E, where S is the solar radiation, a the
albedo, E the global infrared emission;
such a relation is likely and there are historical series for H (figure 13 - A), E (figure 14 - A) for S and a; whether global averaging makes sense is debatable.
But again
such global averages are of little value: regional observations should be related to the regional cloud coverage and
albedo and possibly to
changes of the strength of surface currents.
This radiative response by the system is due predominantly to increased thermal radiation, but it is modified by climate feedbacks
such as
changes in water vapour, clouds and surface
albedo, which affect both outgoing longwave and reflected shortwave radiation.
The only thing that I would contend could be added would be long slow cumulative
changes in solar output other than raw TSI namely
changes in the mix of particles and wavelengths over longer periods of time
such as MWP to LIA to date and which seem to have some effect on surface pressure distribution and global
albedo so as to alter solar shortwave into the oceans and thus affecting the energy available to the ENSO process.
This leads me to believe that CO2 forcing is a minor component of the temperature rise (even Hansen in his paper «Global Warming in the 21st century, an Alternative Scenario» has assigned much warming to e.g. black carbon, methane etc, and an inquisitive mind might easily think of others
such as
albedo change).
This is the result of polar amplification - warming at the tropics is less than warming at the poles due to various effects
such as positive feedback from ice
albedo changes.
«climate scientists have long taken into account many other factors that can influence the climate, and which can
change,
such as ocean - atmopshere oscillations, the
albedo of advancing and retreating glaciers,
changing levels of incoming radiation»
Hansen & Sato [60] suggest adding slow feedbacks one by one, creating a series of increasingly comprehensive Earth system climate sensitivities; specifically, they successively move climate - driven
changes in surface
albedo, non-CO2 GHGs and CO2 into the feedback category, at which point the Earth system sensitivity is relevant to an external forcing
such as
changing solar irradiance or human - made forcings.
Some interesting questions arise — how will expected AGW
changes such as increases in weather extremes interact with agriculture to amplify or diminish warming — are
albedo changes due to agriculture warming or masking, and how will that
change with floods or drought?
Similarly,
changes in terrestrial vegetation,
such as the replacement of forests by tundra, feed back into the atmosphere via
changes in both
albedo and latent heat flux from evapotranspiration.