Perovich has done lots of data collection which shows the effects of surface melt ponds on albedo, as also shown by Pistone et al. in figure 3 of their recent PNAS paper: «Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice».
Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice.
Eric mentioned the «Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» study, here more data:
How much it has grown is not stated in the paper: «Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf but it seems very clear that Arctic sea - ice loss is in accelerating decline towards zero in the coming decades, meaning that this forcing will rise very substantially along with those from land - ice and snow cover decline.
With regard to Dr Tobis» observation that: «there's a something on the order of a 10 % chance that we may have already passed the 2 C mark by any reasonable definition» the evidence of a study of Albedo Loss published last January appears to put the issue beyond doubt: «Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» (Kristina Pistone, Ian Eisenman, and V. Ramanathan)
A typo in mine at # 25 is where 40,000 m3 should read 400,000 m3, and an addendum is the reference for the forcing from the Albedo Loss feedback shown in the satellite record: «Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» See: http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf
Not exact matches
The team's computer simulations suggested that the soot can
cause a
decrease of between 1.6 and 4.1 percent in the glacier's
albedo — a measure of its sunlight - reflecting «whiteness» — and that the resulting heating can
cause up to a 24 percent increase in the annual snowmelt, Yasunari reported here Monday at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
Unless low - level cloud
albedo substantially
decreased during this time period, the reduced solar absorption
caused by the reported enhancement of cloud cover would have resulted in cooling of the climate system that is inconsistent with the observed temperature record.»
A journalist from Jyllands Posten present at the conference got the message, as my criticism was echoed in a news report the following day («Klimaforskere i åben krig» [translation «Climate researchers in open war»], May 28, 2002): It's tricky to explain how a warming
caused by
decreasing albedo would be stronger at the night - side (dark) of the planet.
For example, [Kruss 1983] has this to say about the Lewis glacier on Mt. Kenya: «A
decrease in the annual precipitation on the order of 150 mm in the last quarter of the 19th century, followed by a secular air temperature rise of a few tenths of a degree centigrade during the first half of the 20th century, together with associated
albedo and cloudiness variation, constitute the most likely
cause of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years.»
According to the skeptics, the solar irradiance isn't very important, it is the strength of the sun's magnetic field (that allows or stops cosmic rays from coming in which then
causes more or less clouds, which increases or
decreases the Earth's
albedo, which then
causes warming or cooling of the Earth's surface).
[Response: What if we postulate a feedback between ozone depletion, which
causes people to get better sun tans, warming the climate due to
decreasing planetary
albedo?
This implies that the CRF levels must have systematically
decreased over time,
causing a long - term
decrease in the low cloud fraction and hence a long - term reduction in the planetary
albedo, that again would be responsible for the warming.
It's looking more and more like most climate change can be pegged to changes in solar output, either directly through additional warming or indirectly as
decreases in solar output allow more cosmic rays to reach the atmosphere,
causing increased cloud nucleation and therefore increasing the earth's
albedo and reflecting more solar radiation.
Ice ages come on slowly as the
albedo from greater and greated snow coverage increases
causing greater and greater cooling, but end rapidly as the melt back rapidly
decreases the
albedo.
Human -
caused global warming contributes to the summer Greenland warming (Figure 3), which
causes snow to melt earlier, which
causes decreased local
albedo, which contributes to record Greeland ice sheet decline, which further
decreases local
albedo, which in turn contributes to the Arctic sea ice decline.
It
caused a bit of consternation in the 1970's when it was realized that a very small
decrease in solar intensity — or an increase in
albedo — is sufficient to
cause a rapid transition to an icy planet in this model (2).
This
caused thin first - year sea ice to grow between MY floes thereby
decreasing the overall
albedo of this surface in the Spring of 2008.
I predict that we we will soon see denialist arguments of the form «yeah sure global temperatures are again rising sharply, but that is due to
decreased albedo due to
decreased arctic sea ice, not because increased CO2
causes global warming».
High sensitivity is
caused by increasing water vapour as the tropopause rises and diminishing low cloud cover, but the sensitivity
decreases for still larger CO2 as cloud optical thickness and planetary
albedo increase, as shown by Russell et al. [112].
3) Since ice is very reflective, their melting
causes a
decrease in the
albedo (i.e., the fraction of sunlight reflected back into space) of the Earth, which enhances the initial temperature change.
1)
Decrease in earth's
albedo 2)
Decrease in evaporation (i.e negative factors affecting evaporation) 3) Volcanic activities on earth, e.g. hot lava & hot waters 4) Human activities (AHF), creating heat to move or to stay warm or cold 5) Human activities, e.g. any process to produce energy or cooling
causes more greenhouse gases: water vapor and carbon dioxide which trap long wave energy leaving earth.
Reductions in
albedo due to
decreasing sea ice induced by wind changes were attributed as the
cause of this early warming.
Loss of ice cap will
decrease albedo to the point of
causing an abrupt spike in temperature that will end 90 % of primary plant production, for two or three years.
What happened in the Arctic, was a slow, very slow and gradual
decrease in cooling,
caused by progressively longer warmer seasons, with a feedback loop of warm air reducing
albedo, with reduced
albedo increasing warm air.
An
albedo decrease of only 1 %, bringing the Earth's
albedo from 30 % to 29 %, would
cause an increase in the black - body radiative equilibrium temperature of about 1 °C, a highly significant value, roughly equivalent to the direct radiative effect of a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Unless low - level cloud
albedo substantially
decreased during this time period, the reduced solar absorption
caused by the reported enhancement of cloud cover would have resulted in cooling of the climate system that is inconsistent with the observed temperature record.»