Because each process responds positively to warming (i.e.,
albedo decreases as warming increases), they are all likely to become increasingly important in the future.
•
albedo decreases as ice melts (ice is perhaps 80 % reflective, while ocean albedo can be as low as 3.5 %) • increased water vapor in a warmer climate • warmer oceans absorb less carbon dioxide • warmer soils release carbon dioxide and methane • plants in a hotter climate are darker
Not exact matches
The surface's reflectivity, which scientists call
albedo, could
decrease by
as much
as 10 percent by the end of the century, the study finds.
[Response: weaker cosmic ray flux - > fewer low clouds - >
decrease in sunlight reflected back to space), then you need to explain why the night temperatures appear to increase faster then day temperatures (for any amplification mechanism involving te
albedo, you'd expect the opposite,
as there is no sunlight to reflect on the dark side of the planet...).
As ice melts and ice area
decreases, the
albedo feedback will amplify global warming.
A journalist from Jyllands Posten present at the conference got the message,
as my criticism was echoed in a news report the following day («Klimaforskere i åben krig» [translation «Climate researchers in open war»], May 28, 2002): It's tricky to explain how a warming caused by
decreasing albedo would be stronger at the night - side (dark) of the planet.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts
as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice
as the atmosphere warms
decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average;
decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient
decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Calculations
as to the magnitude of this effect (that is, how dust is needed to significantly
decrease glacier
albedo) certainly have been done, though probably not on a global basis.
I've sometimes thought that global cataclysms like the largest volcanic eruptions would disrupt the glacial records by many years, like Oruanui eruption c. 26500bp,
as these would induce unrecorded behavior in weather and other things, f.e. the huge ash deposits might
decrease the
albedo so much a local melting event happens.
In particular, there are «slow» responses to the imbalance that are seen in the glacial record — CO2 and methane increase with a slow lag
as temperature rises in response to the orbital changes, and the
albedo effect that reduces incoming sunlight
decreases as the ice melts, also with a slow lag.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting,
as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice
decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover
decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
If CO2 in the Anthropocene atmosphere contributes to re-vegetating currently arid areas
as it did post-LGM, we should expect an even greater warming feedback from CO2 than is assumed from water vapor and
albedo feedbacks, due to
decreased global dust - induced
albedo and increased water vapor from transpiration over increased vegetated area.
It's looking more and more like most climate change can be pegged to changes in solar output, either directly through additional warming or indirectly
as decreases in solar output allow more cosmic rays to reach the atmosphere, causing increased cloud nucleation and therefore increasing the earth's
albedo and reflecting more solar radiation.
In this new study, the researchers showed that increasing the
albedo of a 1m2 surface by 0.01 would have the same effect on global temperature, over the next 80 years,
as decreasing emissions by around 7 kg of CO2.
Albedo is typically
decreased to space
as much (or slightly more) than IR is increased to space in the broad scale clear and partly cloudy areas.
Ice ages come on slowly
as the
albedo from greater and greated snow coverage increases causing greater and greater cooling, but end rapidly
as the melt back rapidly
decreases the
albedo.
The
decrease in
albedo that accompanies the loss of sea ice is the phenom that underlies «arctic amplification» (
as you point out, it has nothing directly to do with sea level rise).
This is consistent with other recent work that hypothesizes that increase of melting rates of Arctic sea ice may be
as much due to Chinese black carbon falling on the ice (and thereby
decreasing its
albedo and increasing solar heating) than from rising global temperatures.
All of this will be over by 2015, when the records of 2010 and 1998 will have been obliterated by increased solar activity, ENSO and
decreased albedo as we go into virtually ice free arctic summers, oh and increased GHG concentrations of course.
They also warn that feedback patterns are starting to emerge in the shape of the ice
albedo effect: ice reflects heat away from the surface, so
as it
decreases in extent so warming quickens.
As a result the Earth's global
albedo decreased by the equivalent of around — 5 W / m ^ 2, i.e.
decrease of reflected SW radiation (= heating of our planet).
As ice melts and ice area
decreases, the
albedo feedback will amplify global warming.
The latter effect acts to reduce CO2 sensitivity by increasing the aerosol - sensitive SW tau, increasing both cloud density and cover,
decreasing upper tropospheric specific humidity and INCREASING SW
albedo and will increasingly do so
as the atmospheric level of CO2 rises!
The latter effect acts to reduce CO2 sensitivity by increasing the aerosol - sensitive SW tau, increasing both cloud density and cover,
decreasing upper tropospheric specific humidity and SW
albedo and will increasingly do so
as the atmospheric level of CO2 rises!
High sensitivity is caused by increasing water vapour
as the tropopause rises and diminishing low cloud cover, but the sensitivity
decreases for still larger CO2
as cloud optical thickness and planetary
albedo increase,
as shown by Russell et al. [112].
Apologies if this has already been stated, but my view on
decreased Arctic ice cover is: - 1,
as Judith pointed out, when ice is at a minimum the sun is already so low in the sky that there is no noticeable change to
albedo, 2 when there is ice cover warm water is kept at depth by differences in salinity, When there is open water, storms mix the haline layers bringing warm water to the surface where it can more readily radiate it's energy into outer space.
Reductions in
albedo due to
decreasing sea ice induced by wind changes were attributed
as the cause of this early warming.
As sea ice melts, Earth's overall
albedo, the fraction of energy reflected away from the planet,
decreases.
The ISCCP estimate (right) shows a
decreasing albedo trend of 1 - 2 % in the 80s and 90s (
as opposed to 7 - 8 % in the earthshine - based proxy), a small increase of 1 % form 1999 to 2001 and a flattening of the curve in the last three years.
The time constants of
albedo feedback from melting N America snow cover are shorter than the
albedo feedback from melting Arctic sea ice, and the sea ice is changing response
as its average thickness
decreases, and the ratios of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 year ice area changes.
Perovich has done lots of data collection which shows the effects of surface melt ponds on
albedo,
as also shown by Pistone et al. in figure 3 of their recent PNAS paper: «Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice».
Averaged over the globe, this
albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25 %
as large
as that due to the change in CO2 during this period, considerably larger than expectations from models and other less direct recent estimates.
The proposed explanation (see article: Evidence mounts that Maya did themselves in through deforestation) based on a slight change in
albedo after deforestation and a corresponding
decrease in solar energy available for convection does not make sense to us (although
as we understand this work has not yet been published so we could not read it in detail).