Explain why the surface of venus, which only receives some 2.5 % of the sun's energy due to
the albedo effect of the clouds can have a temperature of 500C.
In contrast,
the albedo effect of clouds goes up a bit slower with water content than the greenhouse effect.
All that is needed is to add heat carried upwards past the denser atmosphere (and most CO2) by convection and the latent heat from water changing state (the majority of heat transport to the tropopause),
the albedo effects of clouds, the inability of long wave «downwelling» (the blue balls) to warm water that makes up 2 / 3rds of the Earth's surface, and that due to huge differences in enthalpy dry air takes far less energy to warm than humid air so temperature is not a measure of atmospheric heat content.
Not exact matches
Among the most uncertain elements in climate models are the
effects of aerosols and their interactions with
clouds — just the things involved in
albedo modification — she says.
They tend to believe that as the planet warms, low - level
cloud cover will increase, thus increasing planetary
albedo (overall reflectiveness
of the Earth), offsetting the increased greenhouse
effect and preventing a dangerous level
of global warming from occurring.
The radiative
effect of clouds on the shortwave fluxes is computed as a seasonally varying (but fixed from one year to the next) and spatially varying atmospheric
albedo.
But they do at least have certain basic physical principles in their
cloud representations —
clouds over ice have less
albedo effect than
clouds over water, you don't get high
clouds in regions
of subsidence, stable boundary layers lead to marine stratus, etc..
There was more ice around in the LGM and that changes the weighting
of ice -
albedo feedback, but also the operation
of the
cloud feedback since
clouds over ice have different
effects than
clouds over water.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to
albedo changes (volcanic aerosols,
cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition
of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the
effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
I was interested not so much in the forcing
effect of clouds themselves so much as the change in
albedo which might result from a change in the overall extent
of global
cloud cover.
«By comparing the response
of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in AMIP simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation
of tropical
cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed two common biases in the models: (1) an underestimate
of the strength
of the negative
cloud albedo feedback and (2) an overestimate
of the positive feedback from the greenhouse
effect of water vapor.
Pretty much all existing GCMs take into account changes in
cloud albedo effects (though these are still characterized by a fairly high level
of uncertainty).
Eventually, when we know more about the
effects of the mechanisms involved, fluctuations in cosmic rays could be incorporated in helping model
cloud albedo changes.
Does more evaporation lead to more
clouds and if so is the net
effect of more
clouds to increase
albedo or to further increase GHE?
The bottom line is that uncertainties in the physics
of aerosol
effects (warming from black carbon, cooling from sulphates and nitrates, indirect
effects on
clouds, indirect
effects on snow and ice
albedo) and in the historical distributions, are really large (as acknowledged above).
The top panel shows the direct
effects of the individual components, while the second panel attributes various indirect factors (associated with atmospheric chemistry, aerosol
cloud interactions and
albedo effects) and includes a model estimate
of the «efficacy»
of the forcing that depends on its spatial distribution.
The details
of the physics
of different forcings (i.e. ozone
effects due to solar, snow
albedo and
cloud effects due to aerosols etc.) do vary the feedbacks slightly differently though.
In fact, if the physics - based understanding
of «equilibrium sensitivity» to any forcing is too low, then not only will CO2 have a greater
effect, so too will all other forcings, such as: changes in the sun, in
cloud cover, in
albedo, etc..
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air /
clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse
effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive,
clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and
clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal
effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
This is what I get out
of it: the Arctic - ice -
albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to
clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but NET
EFFECT, the ice loss and all these other related factors (some negative feedbacks) act as a positive feedback and enhance global warming.
The mechanism which they claim to have identified is actually the opposite
of what Lindzen described, where he claimed that
clouds would increase as the result
of the greenhouse
effect and their
albedo effect would hold down temperatures, but in the tropics the
clouds that Spencer et al were dealing with presumably become fewer in number.
If water (rain,
clouds, oceans) is the stabilizer, then it should overwhelm any warming by trace gases,
albedo effects of glacial advances and retreats, etc..
The impact
of such an
effect on the planetary
cloud albedo has not been assessed.
The mechanism by which the
effect of oceanic variability over time is transferred to the atmosphere involves evaporation, conduction, convection,
clouds and rainfall the significance
of which has to date been almost entirely ignored due to the absence
of the necessary data especially as regards the
effect of cloudiness changes on global
albedo and thus the amount
of solar energy able to enter the oceans.
i) Solar variability as regards the mix
of particles and wavelengths appears to have an
effect on the composition
of the upper atmosphere which can then affect
clouds and
albedo in the way I have described elsewhere.
In models that include indirect
effects, different treatments
of the indirect
effect are used, including changing the
albedo of clouds according to an off - line calculation (e.g., Tett et al., 2002) and a fully interactive treatment
of the
effects of aerosols on
clouds (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b).
I agree about the
albedo effect of snow, but the way
albedo is formed has been given some insights with the new Svensmark paper on
cloud formations.
However, even a smaller figure (I had calculated about 0.17 W / m ^ 2 based on your inflated figure for total planetary
albedo, but you can check it out) is still significant when compared with the total flux imbalance, which I think is a more informative comparison than an arbitrarily selected change in
cloud cover, because it compares the sea ice reduction with the
effects of all climate variations that have been operating in recent years..
From the figures I took an average value
of 0.45 — but, hey, if you prefer to assume 0.35, that's OK, because it will not change the conclusion that the observed Arctic sea ice melt has not appreciably changed our planet's total
albedo, and that a very small change in
cloud cover would have a far greater
effect.
Cloud variations are obviously an important element on a global scale, but the effects of Arctic ice melting are important locally and also a non-trivial fraction of global albedo feedbacks, which are a contributor to total feedback that is smaller than those from water vapor and probably from cloud feedbacks, but not insignifi
Cloud variations are obviously an important element on a global scale, but the
effects of Arctic ice melting are important locally and also a non-trivial fraction
of global
albedo feedbacks, which are a contributor to total feedback that is smaller than those from water vapor and probably from
cloud feedbacks, but not insignifi
cloud feedbacks, but not insignificant.
Its warming
effect, however, is simultaneously amplified and dampened by positive and negative feedbacks such as increased water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas), reduced
albedo, which is a measure
of Earth's reflectivity, changes in
cloud characteristics, and CO2 exchanges with the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.
He assumes a feedback
of 1.6 for water vapor, 1.3 for
clouds, and 1.1 for ice /
albedo effects.
If not either the CO2 / temp relationship is wrong [I do not think so] or the
effect of the CO2 rise is being variably
effected by negative feedbacks such as increased
cloud formation and
albedo thus offsetting the CO2 related temperature rise.
However, I am not a «warmista» by any means — we do not know how to properly quantify the
albedo of aerosols, including
clouds, with their consequent negative feedback
effects in any
of the climate sensitivity models as yet — and all models in the ensemble used by the «warmistas» are indicating the sensitivities (to atmospheric CO2 increase) are too high, by factors ranging from 2 to 4: which could indicate that climate sensitivity to a doubling
of current CO2 concentrations will be
of the order
of 1 degree C or less outside the equatorial regions (none or very little in the equatorial regions)- i.e. an outcome which will likely be beneficial to all
of us.
The size and intensity
of the polar vortexes then has an
effect on the latitudinal position
of the jetstreams which then alters total
cloud quantities (and reflectance) so as to alter global
albedo and thereby alter solar energy input to the oceans.
This being the case, a period
of higher sunspot activity would likely lead to reduced lower tropospheric
cloud cover (due to reduced
albedo effect) and generally higher temperatures.
This being the case, a period
of higher sunspot activity would likely lead to reduced lower tropospheric
cloud cover (due to reduced
albedo effect) and temperatures.
For example, AR4 WG1 assesses the level
of scientific understanding
of cloud albedo effects as «low.»
As such
cloud variation, independent
of temperature COULD be a significant independent variable, a true cause or forcing
of the climate given the great GHG /
albedo effect they have, perhaps it deserves greater investigation?
Heating «
cloud albedo effect» is a far better explanation
of palaeo - climate than CO2 because the latter has a delay
of 500-1500 years as oceans warm.
That greenhouse gases being absent does not
effect the one third
of solar radiation being absorbed by
clouds Or the surface
albedo can jump from 12 % to 30 % Or the greenhouse gases being absent but still have
clouds to reflect radiation Or the IR (not now absorbed) by the
clouds will not obey Kirchoff's Law on reaching the planet surface And so on.
Greenhouse gas
clouds lower the
Albedo of the Earth resulting in a lower effective emission temperature — you shouldn't count the greenhouse
effect of clouds and then not count the solar reflecting impact
of the same
clouds.
As the CO2 and CH4 (methane) level goes up, H2O vapour in the atmosphere falls which — because H2O is 30 times more important than CO2 as a «greenhouse gas» offsets the
effect of CO2 on temperature, while
cloud cover and
albedo increases because warmed moist air rises to form
clouds, further cooling the world.
``... underestimating the negative feedback from
cloud albedo and overestimating the positive feedback from the greenhouse
effect of water vapor over the tropical Pacific during ENSO is a prevalent problem
of climate models.
Because the earth has
clouds with behaviors, and atmos moisture is not uniform or constant, and surface
albedo changes constantly, it is possible to have either or amplification or damping
of the theoretical CO2
effect (or both via different processes).
So, CO2 - AGW is probably very low [overestimated by a factor
of > = c. 3] and «
cloud albedo effect» heating has probably been responsible for the warming, now stopped because the
effect has has saturated.
When you compare this with the actual surface temperature
of ~ 288 K and the temperature in absence
of the greenhouse
effect but no change in
albedo of ~ 255 K, what we can say is the follows: The greenhouse
effect due to all the greenhouse gases (water vapor,
clouds, and the long - lived GHGs like CO2 and CH4) raises the temperature
of the Earth by an amount
of ~ 33 K (which is 288K — 255K); the
albedo due to
cloud reduces the temperature by ~ 17 K (which is 272 K — 255 K); the net
effect of both the GHGs and the
cloud albedo is ~ 16 K (which is 288K — 272K).
Had they applied reasonable physical models for the integrating and lagging (low pass filtering) response
of the ocean, and the positive feedback
of cloud albedo from the burn off
effect, they could have discovered that solar activity can account for the full, 140 - year instrumented temperature record.
The spatial patterns
of RFs for non-LLGHGs (ozone, aerosol direct and
cloud albedo effects, and land use changes) have considerable uncertainties, in contrast to the relatively high confidence in that
of the LLGHGs.
-- Incorporation
of more aerosol species and improved treatment
of aerosol -
cloud interactions allow a best estimate
of the
cloud albedo effect.