Not exact matches
Sea ice reflects most of the sun's energy, he explained, whereas the open ocean absorbs more energy, and thus the disappearance of sea ice triggers even more
warming, in a positive -
feedback loop called
albedo.
«This
albedo feedback could result in the same amount of
warming as a doubling of [carbon dioxide],» Henry says.
«As
warming continues, the
feedback from declining
albedo will add up,» Tedesco said.
Another positive
feedback of global
warming is the
albedo effect: less white summer ice means more dark open water, which absorbs more heat from the sun.
«If you can time your emissions so they have the least impact then you will not trigger these very sensitive regions to start
warming by this ice
albedo feedback process.»
Anyone who accepts that sunlight falling on ice free waters which has less reflectivity than sunlight falling on a large ice mass covering those waters and also accepts that this reduction in
albedo has a positive
feedback effect, leading to further
warming, can't help but opt for A or B, it seems to me.
This chemical weathering process is too slow to damp out shorter - term fluctuations, and there are some complexities — glaciation can enhance the mechanical erosion that provides surface area for chemical weathering (some of which may be realized after a time delay — ie when the subsequent
warming occurs — dramatically snow in a Snowball Earth scenario, where the frigid conditions essentially shut down all chemical weathering, allowing CO2 to build up to the point where it thaws the equatorial region, at which point runaway
albedo feedback drives the Earth into a carbonic acid sauna, which ends via rapid carbonate rock formation), while lower sea level may increase the oxidation of organic C in sediments but also provide more land surface for erosion... etc..
The factors that determine this asymmetry are various, involving ice
albedo feedbacks, cloud
feedbacks and other atmospheric processes, e.g., water vapor content increases approximately exponentially with temperature (Clausius - Clapeyron equation) so that the water vapor
feedback gets stronger the
warmer it is.
I imagine the CO2
feedback would be more important as a
feedback to any
albedo changes brought by
warming.
As I understand Hansen he's saying: if we double CO2 this century (so upto about 550 - 600 ppm), that will mean a forcing of about 4 W / m2 and 3 degrees C
warming in the short term (decades), and thru slow
feedbacks (
albedo + GHG) another 4 W / m2 and 3 degrees in the long term (centuries / millennia).
As ice melts and ice area decreases, the
albedo feedback will amplify global
warming.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a
feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive
feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere
warms decreases
albedo, another positive
feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar
warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
On the possibility of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global
warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on
feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive
feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being
warmed by decreased
albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should
warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
Gavin disputes that the main driver of the sea ice retreat is the
albedo flip, but we are seeing not only polar amplification of global
warming but positive
feedback, which would not be explained simply by radiative forces and ocean currents.
For instance, increasing cloud cover due to global
warming may change the
albedo, but this would be a
feedback to a larger
warming effect, rather than a cooling.
In the NH a lot of land surrounding the arctic ocean is subject to the combination of decrease in seasonal snow cover (with climate
warming), and decreasing
albedo due to vegetation
feedbacks.
But this scenario was created with models that may underestimate
warming because they underestimate
feedbacks, such as sea - ice
albedo.
Increasing the negative
feedback, as might happen in the atmosphere if global
warming creates increased cloud cover (hence
albedo), can increase the amplitude of the oscillations.
What other things in the Earth system will change when it
warms up that will affect how much SW radiation is reflected back into space [eg ice -
albedo feedback, cloud changes] or affect what proportion of emitted LW radiation is allowed to escape to space [eg Water Vapour, cloud changes].
Furthermore, decline in snow cover and sea ice will tend to amplify regional
warming through snow and ice -
albedo feedback effects (see Glossary and Chapter 9).
But both CO2 and solar - caused surface + tropospheric
warming will cause at least some similar latitudinal and seasonal patterns of change within the troposphere + surface via the patterns of
albedo feedback and lapse rate
feedback.
(Orbital forcing doesn't have much of a global annual average forcing, and it's even concievable that the sensitivity to orbital forcing as measured in terms of global averages and the long - term response (temporal scale of ice sheet response) might be approaching infinity or even be negative (if more sunlight is directed onto an ice sheet, the global average
albedo might increase, but the ice sheet would be more likely to decay, with a global average
albedo feedback that causes
warming).
«If you can time your emissions so they have the least impact then you will not trigger these very sensitive regions to start
warming by this ice
albedo feedback process.»
Simple physics dictates that with less sea ice there is magnified
warming of the Arctic due to powerful
albedo feedback; this in turn reduces the equator to pole temperature gradient which slows the jet stream winds causing them to become more meridional; this combined with 4 % more water vapor in the atmosphere (compared to 3 decades ago) is leading to much more extremes in weather.
The ambiguity over the definition of ice - free is not really important as far as the strong
albedo feedbacks magnifying the
warming of the region, so is kind of a red herring in the discussion.
(57j) For surface + tropospheric
warming in general, there is (given a cold enough start) positive surface
albedo feedback, that is concentrated at higher latitudes and in some seasons (though the temperature response to reduced summer sea ice cover tends to be realized more in winter when there is more heat that must be released before ice forms).
(This doesn't include any solar - heating (
albedo, etc.)
feedbacks, which is necessary for a direct comparison; the GHE
warming of about 33 K is only the effect of the atmopheric LW optical thickness, and thus doesn't include any
feedbacks on solar heating)
[Response: What if we postulate a
feedback between ozone depletion, which causes people to get better sun tans,
warming the climate due to decreasing planetary
albedo?
I would guess summer
warming would melt polar ice, leading to ice
albedo feedback and global
warming.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse
feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including
feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
If CO2 in the Anthropocene atmosphere contributes to re-vegetating currently arid areas as it did post-LGM, we should expect an even greater
warming feedback from CO2 than is assumed from water vapor and
albedo feedbacks, due to decreased global dust - induced
albedo and increased water vapor from transpiration over increased vegetated area.
This is what I get out of it: the Arctic - ice -
albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but NET EFFECT, the ice loss and all these other related factors (some negative
feedbacks) act as a positive
feedback and enhance global
warming.
Apart
albedo, shouldn't we expect a classical water vapour
feedback (and so DLF forcing) as arctic ice is melting and arctic seas / ocean
warming?
Subject of some specific concern about global
warming because of large temperature rises predicted for the arctic, and because of some arctic - specific
feedback effects (e.g. the
albedo feedback following loss of arctic sea ice).
One could write a book that surveys the scientific assessments of the causes of global
warming, including
feedbacks (
albedo flip, etc.), that totally ignores public policy.
It is not that the polar regions are amplifying the
warming «going on» at lower latitudes, it is that any
warming going on AT THE POLES is amplified through inherent positive
feedback processes AT THE POLES, and specifically this is primarily the ice -
albedo positive
feedback process whereby more open water leads to more
warming leads to more open water, etc. *** «Climate model simulations have shown that ice
albedo feedbacks associated with variations in snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive
feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...»
It is not that the polar regions are amplifying the
warming «going on» at lower latitudes, it is that any
warming going on AT THE POLES is amplified through inherent positive
feedback processes AT THE POLES, and specifically this is primarily the ice -
albedo positive
feedback process whereby more open water leads to more
warming leads to more open water, etc..
More generally, increased vegetation cover lowers
albedo, meaning that more of the sun's light is absorbed which in turn
warms the climate locally (another positive
feedback), as well as increasing evapotranspiration and carbon uptake.
Ice -
albedo feedback, he added, could give considerably greater
warming in arctic regions.
The water vapor, lapse - rate and ice -
albedo feedbacks in isolation enhance the global
warming that would result from increasing CO2 concentrations alone to around +2.2 °C.
bozzza - The differences in the Arctic are perhaps 1/4 the ocean thermal mass as global ocean averages, small overall size (the smallest ocean), being almost surrounded by land (which
warms faster), more limited liquid interchanges due to bottlenecking than the Antarctic, and very importantly considerable susceptibility to positive
albedo feedbacks; as less summer ice is present given current trends, solar energy absorbed by the Arctic ocean goes up very rapidly.
Typical temperature reconstructions for the late Pliocene however [see one at the top of this story - 3.3 - 3.0 Ma] already show an Earth in which a
warmer climatic state is indeed [through for instance ice
albedo feedbacks] relatively strong around the poles, and (on average) weaker around the equator, exactly the pattern that is monitored under the current climate
warming.
The initial
warming also reduces the surface
albedo by melting snow and sea - ice, which likewise constitutes a positive
feedback because snow and ice are effective reflectors of sunlight.
Earth system and carbon - cycle
feedbacks such as the release of carbon from thawing permafrost or vegetation changes affecting terrestrial carbon storage or
albedo may further extend and possibly amplify
warming (6).
A number of processes, other than surface
albedo feedback, have been shown to also contribute to the polar amplification of
warming in models (Alexeev, 2003, 2005; Holland and Bitz, 2003; Vavrus, 2004; Cai, 2005; Winton, 2006b).
The Arctic has been
warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world for decades because of
feedback loops that have reduced the
albedo effect, a measure of the way Earth reflects heat.
In addition to direct MYI melt due to high - latitude
warming, the impact of enhanced upper - ocean solar heating through numerous leads in decaying Arctic ice cover and consequent ice bottom melting has resulted in an accelerated rate of sea - ice retreat via a positive ice -
albedo feedback mechanism.
The reason the Arctic is
warming faster than anywhere else is the ice
albedo feedback, so this is a critical measure of how that is proceeding.
Which was cause, which effect — or was there a
feedback loop with
warm dry conditions causing drought and erosion leading to dust storms, leading to
albedo feedback to further add to the
warming?
Its
warming effect, however, is simultaneously amplified and dampened by positive and negative
feedbacks such as increased water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas), reduced
albedo, which is a measure of Earth's reflectivity, changes in cloud characteristics, and CO2 exchanges with the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.