What Lyman 2010 shows very clearly is that
although upper ocean heat increases are irregular, the trend is very clear:
Not exact matches
The authors note that more than 85 % of the global heat uptake (Q) has gone into the
oceans, including increasing the heat content of the deeper
oceans,
although their model only accounts for the
upper 700 meters.
... not intended to suggest that the heat capacity exchange / transfer / transport rates used are a realistic representation of actual
ocean circulation,
although from what little I know, it could be a step in that general direction from using one
upper and one deep
ocean reservoir.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and
upper ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface,
although much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
Although the
ocean systems are complex, and time scales are a confounding factor in visualizing effects, I think a simple diagram or animation would show that of course mechanical transfer of warmer water to a lower stratum is going to eventually result in warmer
upper layers.
Although substantial interdecadal variability is present in the time series, long - term decreases in
upper - level cloud cover occur over land and
ocean at low and middle latitudes in both hemispheres.