Analysis of the temperature record can be attempted in a way that tries to attribute the variance to signals as opposed to noise.
Based on my «climate - geek»
analysis of the temperature records, the GISS (NASA) and NCDC (NOAA) records appear to be much higher quality than the HadCrut records.
Joshua Willis, an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, was involved in
an analysis of these temperature records underpinning the new work (and in press in the Journal of Climate).
Our friend Cliff Mass now seems about to launch a potentially Wattsian
analysis of temperature records.
Climate change The heat is on A new
analysis of the temperature record leaves little room for the doubters.
For the avoidance of doubt, let me be precise: Michael Mann is continuously in error in
his analysis of the temperature record.
«Michael Mann is continuously in error in
his analysis of the temperature record.»
Not exact matches
An
analysis of records from NASA's Aqua satellite between 2003 and 2014 shows that spikes in maximum surface
temperatures occurred in the tropical forests
of Africa and South America and across much
of Europe and Asia in 2010 and in Greenland in 2012.
After generating considerable attention with a preview on Capitol Hill last spring, an independent team
of scientists has formally released their
analysis of the land surface
temperature record.
The IPCC [the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] took a shortcut on the actual scientific uncertainty
analysis on a lot
of the issues, particularly the
temperature records.
«Non-linear» animal reactions He and his colleagues based their
analysis on nearly 500 million
temperature records collected at 3,000 weather stations between 1961 and 2009, feeding that information into models that allowed them to estimate how climate shifts affected the metabolism
of cold - blooded insects, lizards and amphibians around the world.
Ruiz, who contributed to the report, noted that an
analysis of weather
records at one páramo research station showed increases in minimum
temperatures were almost twice that
of lower elevations, while increases in maximum
temperatures jumped to nearly three times the average at lower elevations.
Hi, What do you make
of De Laat and Maurellis's
analysis and their conclusion / speculation that quite a lot
of the warming in the
temperature record is down to some kind
of «local» heating effect?
He concludes: «The new
analysis adds to the growing body
of evidence suggesting that these discrepancies are most likely the result
of inaccuracies in the observed
temperature record rather than fundamental model errors.»
While El Niño contributed to the
record, a Climate Central
analysis has shown that 2015's high
temperature was overwhelmingly the result
of manmade warming.
Christy was in fact included; the ensuing period must have been uncomfortable for him, as it included a major correction to his UAH troposhere
temperature record, and the ascendant credibility
of the competing tropospheric
analysis from RSS.
Analyses of primate macroevolutionary dynamics provide support for a diversification rate increase in the late Miocene, possibly in response to elevated global mean
temperatures, and are consistent with the fossil
record.
The scientists got a very similar result when they repeated their
analysis with a different set
of models (those used in the Weather@Home project), strengthening confidence in their conclusion that the
record high
temperatures were highly unlikely in the absence
of climate change.
Climate change made it 175 times more likely that the surface waters
of the Coral Sea, which off the Queensland coastline is home to Australia's Great Barrier Reef, would reach the
record - breaking
temperatures last month that bleached reefs, modeling
analysis showed.
(The WMO's
temperature analysis is based on the
records of three agencies: NASA, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.K. Met Office.)
internal / natural variability over a long enough timeframe will not alter the long term trend
of the
temperature record (as we are always reminded) but in this relatively short term
analysis it did especially for the last decade
He concludes: «The new
analysis adds to the growing body
of evidence suggesting that these discrepancies are most likely the result
of inaccuracies in the observed
temperature record rather than fundamental model errors.»
Thompson et al. do not provide a time series estimate on the effects
of the bias on the global
temperature record, but Steve McIntyre, who is building an impressive track
record of analyses outside the peer - review system, discussed this topic on his weblog
# 46 ZH I am merely pointing out that your commentary on the
temperature record points out that 2010 is not significantly warmer and is not an unamgiguous new
record in the last decade, whereas the Foster and Rahmstorf while admitting their
analysis shows «no sign
of a change in the warming rate during the period
of common coverage»
And it should be mentioned that the 35 years that precede all this 1695 - 1733 rise, the first years
of the early - extended CET, we see a 1ºC drop in
temperature which the following «greater and / or faster» rise was but reversing, And
of course, this pedantic
analysis has diddly - squat relevance to global
temperature records.
Update 16 January 2013: As hinted at in the discussion, at the time this was published we had already performed an
analysis of worldwide
temperature records which confirms that our simple statistical approach works well.
There is a strong correlation between annual mean
temperatures (in the satellite tropospheric
records and surface
analyses) and the state
of ENSO at the end
of the previous year.
I've seen a lot
of Anthony Watts» presentations and pictures
of poorly sited thermometers, but never an
analysis to conclusively show that there is a warm bias in the adjusted U.S.
temperature record as a result.
«We provide an
analysis of Greenland
temperature records to compare the current (1995 — 2005) warming period with the previous (1920 — 1930) Greenland warming.
«They had done far more extensive and sophisticated
analysis of the weather
records, confirmed by «proxy» data such as studies
of tree rings and measurements
of old
temperatures that lingered in deep boreholes.»
An
analysis of global
temperature data by scientists with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) found that 2017 was the second - hottest year on
record since 1880 — which...
High - frequency associations (not shown here) remain strong throughout the whole
record, but average density levels have continuously fallen while
temperatures in recent decades have risen... As yet, the reason is not known, but
analyses of time - dependent regional comparisons suggest that it is associated with a tendency towards loss
of «spring» growth response (Briffa et al., 1 999b) and, at least for subarctic Siberia, it may be connected with changes in the timing
of spring snowmelt (Vaganov et al., 1999).
The Relationship Be - tween Radiative Forcing and
Temperature: What do Statistical
Analyses of the Instrumental
Temperature Record Measure?
Neither
of them adequately explain the step - change in the
temperature record of the last decade that is apparent in both
analyses.
Multiple independent
analyses of long - term
temperature records show average global
temperatures rising as greenhouse gas concentrations have risen.
You continued, «Neither
of them adequately explain the step - change in the
temperature record of the last decade that is apparent in both
analyses.
There's a fundamental difference in the facts that — the instrumental
records are formed from numbers that represent directly
temperatures — there are very many time series
of that type — it's possible to calculate (weighted) averages and apply many tools
of statistical
analysis to them.
2009 was tied for the second warmest year in the modern
record, a new NASA
analysis of global surface
temperature shows.
This finding, though based on uncertain reconstructions
of past ENSO behaviour, is entirely independent
of previous
analyses confined to the restricted instrumental climate
record...... such a trend would seem consistent with the response to the general increase in explosive volcanism during the fifteenth — nineteenth centuries in conjunction with reduced solar irradiance that is responsible for the millennial cooling trend
of Northern Hemisphere mean
temperature before modern anthropogenic warming.
Detailed
analysis of the paleo
record shows atmospheric CO2 levels have increased and decreased with no change in planetary
temperature.
July 2016 was the warmest July in 136 years
of modern
record - keeping according to a monthly
analysis of global
temperatures by scientists at NASA GISS.
The 2485 year
record is long enough to permit Fourier
analysis on the first half replicate the
temperature record of the second half and forecast a
temperature decline from 2006 to 2068 that wipes out the warming
of the last century.
«Obviously the GISTEMP [Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Temperature]
analysis is independent
of that and
records or trends in its index stand alone,» Schmidt told The New American at the time, though most
of the establishment media seemingly never got the memo or bothered to ask the question.
Figure 5: Five different
analyses of surface
temperature records show warming
of the atmosphere at the surface level.
2011 was only the ninth warmest year in the GISS
analysis of global
temperature change, yet nine
of the ten warmest years in the instrumental
record (since 1880) have occurred in the 21st century.
It seems that you completely missed my point, which is essentially avoided too by Judith Curry's intention to do a post hoc
analysis of this year's
temperature record, rather than to attempt a trivial statistical prediction
of short - term trend, and to offer a covering explanation
of the interpretation
of such.
Brunet et al (2010) The minimization
of the screen bias from ancient Western Mediterranean air
temperature records: an exploratory statistical
analysis.
It would have to be shown that the recent
temperature record can be statistically significantly distinguished from the statistically significant warming signal, which can be detected when performing an
analysis that uses data over multiple decades, from the mid-1970ies to present, or from the mid-1970ies up to the time, when the alleged change in the behavior
of the global atmospheric
temperature is supposed to have occurred.
(01/06/2014) Australia had its warmest year on
record, with annual
temperatures 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.16 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1961 - 1990 average, according to a new
analysis from Australia's Bureau
of Meteorology (BOM).
In conclusion, our
analysis suggests that strong interannual and decadal variations observed in the average land surface
temperature records represent a true climate phenomenon, not only during the years when fluctuations on the timescale
of 2 - 15 years had been previously identified with El Nino events.