Sentences with phrase «analysis by climate models»

The main purpose of the first phase (development of the RCPs) is to provide information on possible development trajectories for the main forcing agents of climate change, consistent with current scenario literature allowing subsequent analysis by both Climate models (CMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).1 Climate modelers will use the time series of future concentrations and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and land - use change from the four RCPs in order to conduct new climate model experiments and produce new climate scenarios as part of the parallel phase.

The major argument for that is that physically one would expect that and detailed analysis by climate models shows it.

The major argument for that is that physically one would expect that and detailed analysis by climate models shows it.

Not exact matches

The study was partially funded by Columbia University Research Initiatives for Science and Engineering (RISE) award; the Office of Naval Research; NOAA's Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections; Willis Research Network; and the National Science Foundation.

Bolstered by the success of their retrospective analysis the scientists forecast caribou habitat to the year 2080 using a «business - as - usual» climate model — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1Bclimate model — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1BClimate Change's A1B model.

Their analysis emphasizes the greater vulnerability of poor populations to climate impacts and highlights the need for better modeling, like that proposed by the Princeton team, to reduce poverty and climate change.

Upper limits of experience All of the candidate cities — Almaty, Kazakhstan; Beijing, China; Krakow, Poland; Lviv, Ukraine; and Oslo, Norway — will likely be facing temperatures near the upper limits of what each region has experienced in the past 150 years, according to a Daily Climate analysis of climate models constructed by University of Hawaii, Manoa, geographer Camilo Mora and collClimate analysis of climate models constructed by University of Hawaii, Manoa, geographer Camilo Mora and collclimate models constructed by University of Hawaii, Manoa, geographer Camilo Mora and colleagues.

On the other hand, statistical analysis of the past century's hurricanes and computer modeling of a warmer climate, nudged along by greenhouse gases, does indicate that rising ocean temperatures could fuel hurricanes that are more intense.

An international reputation for expertise in regional climate modeling and analysis led to the Laboratory's participation in the project directed by the University of Washington's Climate Impactsclimate modeling and analysis led to the Laboratory's participation in the project directed by the University of Washington's Climate ImpactsClimate Impacts Group.

Wigley et al. (2005b) demonstrate that the analysis method of Douglass and Knox (2005) severely underestimates (by a factor of three) climate sensitivity if applied to a model with known sensitivity.

The ongoing heat wave dominating a large swath of Europe is being exacerbated by climate change, according to a new analysis by a team of international scientists using both observational data and climate models.

Climate model studies and empirical analyses of paleoclimate data can provide estimates of the amplification of climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal Climate model studies and empirical analyses of paleoclimate data can provide estimates of the amplification of climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal events.

Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon, and such impacts should be accounted for in large - scale modelling analyses.

Red indicates regions of North America for which a statistical analysis using two climate models indicated there is a 97.5 percent probability that average temperatures will rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2070.

Bolstered by the success of their retrospective analysis, the scientists forecasted caribou habitat to the year 2080 using a «business - as - usual» climate model: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1Bclimate model: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1BClimate Change's A1B model.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

Analysis by Collins of climate model simulations indicated that increased CO2 may result in ENSO events becoming larger in amplitude and more frequent than under present conditions.

Some recent research, including analysis of climate models and past records by Richard Seager at the Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, projects that the buildup of greenhouse gases is pushing the region into a megadrought akin to epic dry spells of the past.

An important point with reanalyses, is that the model used doesn't change over the time spanned by the analysis, but reanalyses are generally used with caution for climate change studies because the number and type of observations being fed into the computer model changes over time.

Doran's analysis of Antarctic cooling is frequently cited by skeptics to undermine the plausibility of climate models.

The lines of evidence and analysis supporting the mainstream position on climate change are diverse and robust — embracing a huge body of direct measurements by a variety of methods in a wealth of locations on the Earth's surface and from space, solid understanding of the basic physics governing how energy flow in the atmosphere interacts with greenhouse gases, insights derived from the reconstruction of causes and consequences of millions of years of natural climatic variations, and the results of computer models that are increasingly capable of reproducing the main features of Earth's climate with and without human influences.

Given that models have been improving in their ability to model processes, I personally find it difficult to believe that, at least in terms of a Bayesian analysis, the models themselves aren't doing better in terms of their ability to identify climate sensitivity by applying first principles to our climate system.

At the tail end of the full paper, capping a paragraph about a weak spot in the analysis — that the observed trend in extreme precipitation events exceeds what is produced by various climate models — comes a sentence about uncertainties:

The analysis also follows the advice in the IPCC Good - Practice - Guidance - Paper on using climate model results: the local climate change scenarios should be based on (i) historical change, (ii) process change (e.g. changes in the driving circulation), (iii) global climate change projected by GCMs, and (iv) downscaled projected change.

The study, Climate Data and Modeling Analysis of the Indus Ecoregion, has been written by Dr Ghulam Rasul of the Pakistan Meteorological Department as part of a project titled Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan.

Attribution analyses normally directly account for errors in the magnitude of the model's pattern of response to different forcings by the inclusion of factors that scale the model responses up or down to best match observed climate changes.

The conclusion that greenhouse warming dominates over solar warming is supported further by a detection and attribution analysis using 13 models from the MMD at PCMDI (Stone et al., 2007a) and an analysis of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM1.4; Stone et al., 2007b).

A recent meta - analysis published in the journal Nature Climate Change, by Challinor et al. (2014) examines 1,722 crop model simulations, run using global climate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on cropClimate Change, by Challinor et al. (2014) examines 1,722 crop model simulations, run using global climate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on cropclimate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on cropclimate change and adaptation on crop yield.

My impression from outside is that the statistical analyses are weak, the climate models are simplistic and overinfluenced by selection and publication biases, the theoretic underpinning is extraordinarily shakey and the belief engine is overrevved with the popularity of certain «star performers» and the Romantic desire for a Paradise Lost that never existed.

The ongoing heat wave dominating a large swath of Europe is being exacerbated by climate change, according to a new analysis by a team of international scientists using both observational data and climate models.

Very warm springs have been anomalies, but this new analysis of climate model data shows an increased frequency to nearly one in every three years by the end of this century.

A stern lesson from history Wyatt / Curry stadium waves require confirmation from analysis and computation; otherwise they risk being regarded as one more statistics - driven model, of which the climate literature already contains innumerably many... this large corpus of cycle - seeking pure - statistics climate models is (rightly) ignored by most scientists, due to the dismal track record of cycle - seeking science in regard to explanatory and predictive power.

Such natural extremes from climate persistence are quantitatively modeled by Harold E. Hurst (1951) in his breakthrough hydrological analysis of the 813 year record of Nile river flows (Rikert 2014).

Guest Essay by: Ken Gregory The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis located at the University of Victoria in British Columbia submitted five runs of its climate model CanESM2 for use in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change Climate Modeling and Analysis located at the University of Victoria in British Columbia submitted five runs of its climate model CanESM2 for use in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change climate model CanESM2 for use in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change Climate Change (IPCC).

With respect to other multi-decadal climate model failings, see also the informative analyses by Bob Tisdale in his posts

and of course «If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability»

Spectral analysis, unless properly understood may lead to very misleading conclusions, here are shown four essential things one needs to be aware of all the time: On the other hand there are again unnoticeable data curiosities, this graph shows an unusual configuration within one of the top five temperature data sets used by the climate scientists in their calculations, predictions and computer models.

Analyses of tide gauge and altimetry data by Vinogradov and Ponte (2011), which indicated the presence of considerably small spatial scale variability in annual mean sea level over many coastal regions, are an important factor for understanding the uncertainties in regional sea - level simulations and projections at sub-decadal time scales in coarse - resolution climate models that are also discussed in Chapter 13.

Note that the Kaufmann's paper is very careful in keeping this 60 - year cycle out of consideration by starting the analysis of their forcings in 1950 and running the climate model only since 1999 up to 2008 -LRB-?)

Aggregation through meta - analysis is described next, followed by joint attribution through climate model studies, and synthesis of the observed changes described in Section 1.3.

One of the most exciting outcomes from Ensembles is the development of a climate mitigation scenario and its analysis by a variety of state - of - the - art climate models, many of which include carbon cycle feedbacks.

They limited and distorted what was examined by Working Group 1, The Physical Science Basis to human causes of climate change, but that meant their Report identified all the limitations of data, method, computer models, and analysis.

Their conclusion This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability is right on the money IMO, although I don't think their analysis of why the models might be wrong was particularly illuminating.

In this study multi-model ensemble analysis of extreme runoff is performed based on eight regional climate models (RCMs) provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NAclimate models (RCMs) provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NAClimate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).

Researchers know how the region's farmers will be affected by climate change thanks to the development of climate models and other analyses, but there still is a lack of a strong support system that allows farmers to practically use this information.

Climate model studies and empirical analyses of paleoclimate data can provide estimates of the amplification of climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal Climate model studies and empirical analyses of paleoclimate data can provide estimates of the amplification of climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal events.

Hezel and colleagues (2012), who developed a model to project April snow depths into the 21st century to see how ringed seals might be affected by global warming, used simulated data generated by other models developed by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; explained in Taylor et al. 2012); Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin and Davis Strait regions were not included in this analmodel to project April snow depths into the 21st century to see how ringed seals might be affected by global warming, used simulated data generated by other models developed by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; explained in Taylor et al. 2012); Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin and Davis Strait regions were not included in this analModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; explained in Taylor et al. 2012); Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin and Davis Strait regions were not included in this analysis.

For an analysis of how well the climate models do at computing the rate of change of temperature by latitude for the period from 1970 to 2001 see Polar versus Equatorial Warming.

These and other observations can be integrated into a model with feedbacks and having two unstable end ‐ points that is consistent both with classical studies of past climate states, and also with recent analysis of ice dynamics in the Arctic basin by Zhakarov, whose oscillatory model identifies feedback mechanisms in atmosphere and ocean, both positive and negative, that interact in such a manner as to prevent long ‐ term trends in either ice ‐ loss or ice ‐ gain on the Arctic Ocean to proceed to an ultimate state.

However, it is these careful, meticulous, lengthy mathematical analyses — and not the half - baked modeling used by the IPCC — that are more likely to produce a reliable interval of climate sensitivity.