Polar ice and marine records indicate that
annual average surface temperatures dropped by 2 - 6 °C in central Greenland (Fig. 1B) and by 1 - 3 °C in the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe.
What's more, there are several long - term records of global
annual average surface temperatures.
For the contiguous United States and Alaska, 2016 was the second - warmest year on record and the 20th consecutive year that
the annual average surface temperature exceeded the 122 - year average since record keeping began, according to NOAA.
Clearly, to use a single value (the global average
annual average surface temperature trend) to characterize global warming is a naive approach and is misleading policymakers on the actual complexity of the climate system.
Similarly, see Roger Pielke Sr. posts on «Global Average Surface Temperature» Especially: Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions — Post # 1 On The Global
Annual Average Surface Temperature Trend
For the contiguous United States and Alaska, 2016 was the second - warmest year on record and the 20th consecutive year that
the annual average surface temperature exceeded the 122 - year average since record keeping began, according to NOAA.
Caution and suitable caveats should be used in using this paper as evidence that the global
annual average surface temperature «hiatus» of the past 18 years has been explained.»
Climatologists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City noted that the highest global
annual average surface temperature in more than a century was recorded in their analysis for the 2005 calendar year.»
Not exact matches
The researchers looked at
annual maximum land
surface temperatures averaged across 8 - day periods throughout the year for every 1 - square kilometer (247 acres) pixel on Earth.
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher
temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs.
annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
annual average global
surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.
seems to be incompatible with the statement from his
Annual review paper from 2000 (see abstract below) that: «The
average surface temperature of the continents has increased by about 1.0 K over the past 5 centuries; half of this increase has occurred in the twentieth century alone.»
The 1901 - 2000
average combined land and ocean
annual temperature is 13.9 °C (56.9 °F), the annually
averaged land
temperature for the same period is 8.5 °C (47.3 °F), and the long - term annually
averaged sea
surface temperature is 16.1 °C (60.9 °F).
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and global mean
temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the
annual cycle.
Tamino (29)(Open - Mind, Central England
Temperatures) predicted an up - tick (not a least - squares trend) in surface temperatures of 0.5 degrees centigrade this decade, starting from an annual average of about 1
Temperatures) predicted an up - tick (not a least - squares trend) in
surface temperatures of 0.5 degrees centigrade this decade, starting from an annual average of about 1
temperatures of 0.5 degrees centigrade this decade, starting from an
annual average of about 10.5 degrees.
seems to be incompatible with the statement from his
Annual review paper from 2000 (see abstract below) that: «The
average surface temperature of the continents has increased by about 1.0 K over the past 5 centuries; half of this increase has occurred in the twentieth century alone.»
If you take the new 2004
annual data on
surface temperature and include it in an
average for 30 years, you have the most recent estimate of current climate, which is centered on 1989.
An
annual average of each station could be employed to calculate and
annual average temperature surface and the
annuals and longer terms could be summarized the same way.
The following graph shows
annual average temperature estimates from Berkeley Earth and 5 other research groups that estimate
surface temperature.
The
annual anomaly of the global
average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the
average of the near -
surface air
temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010
average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century
average), and was the warmest since 1891.
According to NOAA's 2016 Arctic Report Card, the
average annual surface air
temperature anomaly (+3.6 °F / 2.0 °C relative to the 1981 - 2010 baseline) over land north of 60 ° N between October 2015 and September 2016 was by far the highest in the observational record beginning in 1900.
southern oscillation a large - scale atmospheric and hydrospheric fluctuation centered in the equatorial Pacific Ocean; exhibits a nearly
annual pressure anomaly, alternatively high over the Indian Ocean and high over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable,
averaging 2.33 years; the variation in pressure is accompanied by variations in wind strengths, ocean currents, sea -
surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding areas
«The
annual and decadal land
surface temperature from the BerkeleyEarth
average, compared to a linear combination of volcanic sulfate emissions and the natural logarithm of CO2.»
During that same period,
average annual rainfall in New South Wales declined by 3.6 inches (92 millimeters).3 Scientists think the decline in autumn rainfall in southeast Australia since the late 1950s may be partly due to increases in heat - trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere.3, 14 Major bushfires over southeast Australia are linked to the positive phase of an ocean cycle called the «Indian Ocean Dipole» — when sea
surface temperatures are warmer than
average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to global warming.15, 16
Pritchard noted that the Antarctic Peninsula's
annual average air
temperature has risen 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) since 1950, while near -
surface ocean waters have warmed 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius).
Observed (black) and predicted (blue) global
average annual surface temperature difference relative to 1981 - 2010.
Over the last decade or so, the models have not shown an ability to predict the lack (or very muted) change in the
annual average global
surface temperature trend.
As was widely covered in the media, 2014 saw the highest
annual average global
surface temperature since records began, the report says:
And, of course, we do not need to global climate models to run impact models with an
annual average increase in the mean
surface air
temperature of +1 C and +2 C prescribed for the Netherlands.
The NOAA National Climatic Data Center's
annual summary posted on January 15 says: «The 2000 - 2009 decade is the warmest on record, with an
average global
surface temperature of 0.54 deg C (0.96 deg F) above the 20th century
average.
the point is that the flatish
average annual surface temperatures mislead the willing - to - be-misled into thinking that no damage is being done between up - ticks in avg.
In the meantime we will continue — I predict — to suffer the
annual Grand - Guignal circus of
annual averages temperatures — if ever again drought or ENSO pushes the
surface temperature a little higher.
For me as a layman the point is that the flatish
average annual surface temperatures mislead the willing - to - be-misled into thinking that no damage is being done between up - ticks in avg.
The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has maintained global
average monthly and
annual records of combined land and ocean
surface temperatures for more than 130 years.
The researchers discovered a
temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius in near -
surface air
temperatures in the tropics leads to an
average annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent to one - third of the
annual global emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation combined.
The discussion of whether 2012 is the 8th, 9th 10th or 11th warmest
annual global
average surface temperature is intellectually engaging (and a bit of a waste of the engaged intellect), but a more significant point is that the warm years since 1998 have all occured without a transient bump comparable to the one that 1998 recieved from the signifcant El Nino that occured.
How much warmer the globe has become compared to 1998 can only really be commented on after an El Nino influence on the global
average surface temperatures similar to the 1997 - 1998 El Nino occurs, and other transient or cyclical influences on the «
annual average» are considered.
In point of fact across lines of latitude the more
surface water that's present the lower the
average annual temperature.
A reasonable rule - of - thumb to estimate crawlspace ground
surface temperatures is to use the
average annual ambient air
temperature for that location.
ECS is the increase in the global
annual mean
surface temperature caused by an instantaneous doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 relative to the pre-industrial level after the model relaxes to radiative equilibrium, while the TCR is the
temperature increase
averaged over 20 years centered on the time of doubling at a 1 % per year compounded increase.
Figure 1: Observed and predicted global
average annual surface temperature difference relative to 1971 - 2000.
Image: Phil Jones, University of East Anglia Graph:
Average global
surface temperature -
annual (black dots) and decadal (blue band); IPCC 4th Assessment report 2007
Annual global surface air temperature anomalies from 1979 to 2017 relative to the annual average for the period 1981 -
Annual global
surface air
temperature anomalies from 1979 to 2017 relative to the
annual average for the period 1981 -
annual average for the period 1981 - 2010.
m in the atmosphere, which translates into a brightness
temperature ~ 34C for a global
annual average, even higher than that of the
surface.
The
average temperature of the
surface is that depth at which there is no daily, seasonal, or
annual variation i.e. a constant year - round
temperature.
Record droughts in many areas of the world, the loss of arctic sea ice — what you see is an increasing trend that is superimposed on
annual variablity (no bets on what happens next year, but the five - to - ten year
average in global
temperatures, sea
surface temperatures, ocean heat content — those will increase — and ice sheet volumes, tropical glacier volumes, sea ice extent will decrease.
Top graph, labeled «
Temperature Change,» is captioned «reconstruction of
annual -
average Northern Hemisphere
surface air
temperatures derived from historical records, tree rings, and corals (blue), and air
temperatures directly measured (purple).
Temperature Change: reconstruction of
annual -
average Northern Hemisphere
surface air
temperatures derived from historical records, tree rings, and corals (blue), and air
temperatures directly measured (purple).
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher
temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs.
annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
annual average global
surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.
European Arctic
surface air
temperature anomalies over all
surfaces for
annual averages from 1979 to 2017 relative to the
annual average for the period 1981 - 2010.
The projected change in
annual mean
surface air
temperature from the late 20th century (1971 - 2000
average) to the middle 21st century (2051 - 2060
average).