The first difference arises because
annual average temperature change is greater than summer temperature change at high latitudes, but the mass balance sensitivity is greater to summer change.
You have not provided any data to support your wild claim that
the annual average temperature change has a relationship to the temperature change in extreme events.
Not exact matches
Changes in the
annual percent of days in North America exceeding the
temperature thresholds set by the historical
average of warmest 10 % of days, warmest 5 % of days and the warmest 2.5 % of days.
The degree of
change is similar to that found for the
average annual temperatures.
ACPI assumes a 1 percent
annual increase in the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations through the year 2100, for little
change in precipitation and an
average temperature increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees centigrade at least through the middle of 21st century.
The fact that the observations have a «memory» from month to month (because the ocean is slow to
change temperature) allows us to predict the
annual mean from the year - to - date
average (which implicitly includes the ENSO effect).
Figure 1:
Annual global
temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving
average of
temperature (thick dark red).
The warming trends in looking at numerous 100 year
temperature plots from northern and high elevation climate stations... i.e. warming trends in
annual mean and minimum
temperature averages, winter monthly means and minimums and especially winter minimum
temperatures and dewpoints... indicate climate warming that is being driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — no visible effects from other things like
changes in solar radiation or the levels of cosmic rays.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and global mean
temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface
temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the
annual cycle.
If you have a reconstruction of
annual average temperatures at a location over the past 1000 yrs with an error range of, say, + / -0.3 deg C in the proxy data, and the net
temperature change over that time period is 1.0 deg C from the proxy data, your counts and timing of records are going to be heavily dependent on errors.
Figure 18.2: Projected increase in
annual average temperatures by mid-century (2041 - 2070) as compared to the 1971 - 2000 period tell only part of the climate
change story.
Future crop yields will be more strongly influenced by anomalous weather events than by
changes in
average temperature or
annual precipitation (Ch.
The sudden
change in minimum
temperature differences between Perth Metro and Perth Airport from 1997 can be seen in
average annual minima recorded at both weather stations.
Over the last decade or so, the models have not shown an ability to predict the lack (or very muted)
change in the
annual average global surface
temperature trend.
Third, the ice core data how conclusively that, during natural climate cycling,
changes in
temperature precede
changes in carbon dioxide by an
average 800 years or so (Fischer et al, 1999; Indermuhle et al, 2000; Mudelsee, 2001; Caillon et al, 2003); similarly,
temperature change precedes carbon dioxide
change, in this case by five months, during
annual seasonal cycling (Kuo, Lindberg and Thomson, 1990).
2) The
annual change correlates with the
temperature level, I think even you agreed and the total accumulation over a period of observation is the sum of the
annual changes or the number of years times the
average accumulation, over the period of observation.
Back in 2009, at the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate
Change, nations around the world drew a hypothetical line in the sand, pledging to do everything in their power to prevent the world
annual average temperature from warming an additional two degrees Celsius (3.6 °F)- known as the Copenhagen Accord.
«The Russian Academy of Sciences has found that the
annual temperature of soils (with seasonable variations) has been remaining stable despite the increased
average annual air
temperature caused by climate
change.
Projected
changes in
average annual temperature over the period 2071 - 2099 (compared to the period 1970 - 1999).
Annual global
temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving
average of
temperature (thick dark red).
Because the temp series have had more plastic surgery than Heidi Montag Here's the actual amount of
annual temperature change when based on the
average of day to day difference between today's warming and tonight's cooling.
To illustrate the point, I've been through a quick exercise using the approach that groups such as GPWF favour — and that Kaufmann's research group adopted — of using
annual temperatures rather than any kind of smoothed
average, and looking for the
temperature change over a decade.
In November, delegates to the UN Climate
Change Convention
annual negotiations will gather in Paris to try to conclude an ambitious and effective agreement on preventing the global
average temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions exceeding 2 ˚C above its pre-industrial level.
Figure 1:
Annual global
temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving
average of
temperature (thick dark red).
Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a); mean
annual temperature (MAT) reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as anomalies based on 1961 — 1990
temperature averages (b);
changes in ENSO - related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](c);
changes in PDSI variability for the American Southwest (d), and
changes in winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].
The year 2016 marked the warmest ocean
annual average temperatures ever recorded, putting corals at risk and foreshadowing what we can expect as climate
change continues.
In the table near the bottom, the units are
average annual «slope» or
change in
temperature.
Below is a table of countries showing the number of stations used in this study along with the
average, max, and min
annual change in
temperatures.
The percentage «remaining» in the atmosphere seems to correlate well with the
annual change in global
average temperature compared to the previous year, with years of relative warming showing higher % - age of the emitted CO2 «remaining» in the atmosphere.
If a linear trend is taken through mean
annual temperatures, the
average change over the last 6 decades is 3.0 °F.
Forster and Gregory (2006) derive their sensitivity by using the radiation imbalance versus the
temperature change, using mostly
annual averaged data.
For example, the HadCRUT3, GISS, etc. data sets of
annual mean global
temperature each report global
temperature changes as differences from a 30 - year
average.
Climate
change has already triggered an increase in
average annual temperatures in Canada in recent decades, along with rising sea levels.
22 Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean
temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global
Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C
The fact that the observations have a «memory» from month to month (because the ocean is slow to
change temperature) allows us to predict the
annual mean from the year - to - date
average (which implicitly includes the ENSO effect).
Divide the observation period into smaller sub-periods (whichever) and calculate the total CO2 accumulations (or
average annual changes) and
average temperature anomalies for the sub-periods.
The polar regions are particularly sensitive to small rises in the
annual average temperature, they are sometimes referred to as «the canary in the coalmine» in that they show
changes long before they can be seen elsewhere in the world.
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) based in New York also applies a jump - up to the Amberley series in 1980, and makes other
changes, so that the
annual average temperature for Amberley increases from 1941 to 2012 by about 2 °C.
Top graph, labeled «
Temperature Change,» is captioned «reconstruction of
annual -
average Northern Hemisphere surface air
temperatures derived from historical records, tree rings, and corals (blue), and air
temperatures directly measured (purple).
Temperature Change: reconstruction of
annual -
average Northern Hemisphere surface air
temperatures derived from historical records, tree rings, and corals (blue), and air
temperatures directly measured (purple).
A new report lays it out: Reuters is reporting that according to a new study there is a 90 %
change that global
temperature increases can be held to 2 °C above 19th century levels, if
average annual global investment in greenhouse gas emission reductions is 2 % of GDP between now and 2100.
In fact I've seen a complete 1 degree C
average annual change in amplitude of
temperature.
The projected
change in
annual mean surface air
temperature from the late 20th century (1971 - 2000
average) to the middle 21st century (2051 - 2060
average).
You can see this in the figure below, which maps projected
changes in
annual average temperature in a 2C warmer world.