This scenario indicates a change in
annual mean temperature of between 0.9 C and 1.2 C over the land areas close to the Mediterranean Sea.
The change
in annual mean temperature for each simulation between the preindustrial period and 2090 — 2099 is given in the columns headed «ΔT (°C)».
In Fig. 8, I have digitized the outer bounds of the model runs in Fig. 7, and also plotted the HadCRUT3 global
annual mean temperature anomaly over the same period.
The northern zone is semiarid,
with annual mean temperatures between about 54 and 68 °F (12 and 20 °C); recorded maximum temperatures vary from about 106 to 113 °F (41 to 45 °C), and minimum temperatures from 12 to 23 °F (− 11 to − 5 °C).
Black lines show observed global mean
annual mean temperature from HadCRUT3, and thin coloured lines show global mean temperature from five - member ensembles of CanESM2 forced with (a) anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL), (b) natural forcings only (NAT), (c) greenhouse gases only (GHG), and (d) aerosols only (AER).
Estimates of the global and
annual mean temperature based on a number of different data sets, including both traditional analyses as well as re-analyses (also see the last 15 years).
Figure B shows the scenario for the change in
annual mean temperature per 1 C global warming using this method for 248 meteorological stations.
«What is clear is that globally, 1998 was the warmest year ever recorded and eight of the ten other
top annual mean temperatures have occurred during the last decade.
For example, the
NH annual mean temperature series appears to exhibit skill back to at least AD 1400 (and has now been extended back to AD 1000 by Mann et al (1999), albeit with expanded uncertainty estimates).
To calibrate the reconstruction, its mean value and variance were adjusted to agree with the instrumental record of Northern
Hemisphere annual mean temperatures [19] in the overlapping period AD 1856 — 1979 (Fig. 2b).
Simulations where the magnitude of solar irradiance changes is increased yield a mismatch between model results and CO2 data, providing evidence for modest changes in solar irradiance and global mean temperatures over the past millennium and arguing against a significant amplification of the response of global or
hemispheric annual mean temperature to solar forcing.
22 Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high
latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C
Note:
Annual mean temperature anomaly for continental Australia (1911 — 2014)-- a comparison of local and international datasets, comprising «land only» (LO) surface air temperature (SAT) datasets, blended land - ocean datasets (BL) and satellite lower tropospheric datasets (TLT).
Estimates of the global and
annual mean temperature based on a number of different data sets, including both traditional analyses as well as re-analyses
A recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme said that between 1982 and 2006, the average
annual mean temperature in the region increased by 1.5 C, with an average increase of 0.06 C per year although, said the report, «the rate of warming varies across seasons and ecoregions.»
«It is urgent because in the last 10 years
the annual mean temperature on the Col du Dôme has risen by 1.5 degrees C, from — 14 degrees Celsius to — 12.5 degrees Celsius.»
For example without heat meridian transfer (atmospheric and oceanic)
the annual mean temperature of the 50 - 60N band should be -14 °C.
Observational errors on any one
annual mean temperature anomaly estimate are around 0.1 deg C, and the errors from the linear fits are given in the text.
Figure A illustrates how 1 C of global warming might affect
the annual mean temperature over the Mediterranean Basin.