The next chart shows the margin - adjusted CAPE on an inverted log scale (blue), along with actual subsequent S&P 500 average
annual nominal total returns (red).
As a result, the most historically reliable valuation measures now suggest that the S&P 500 will experience a net loss over the coming decade, while including broader (if slightly less reliable) measures results in projected S&P 500 10 - year
annual nominal total returns of about 1.4 % annually (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these estimates).
The red line (right scale) is the average
annual nominal total return of the S&P 500 over the subsequent 12 - year period.
Not exact matches
The following chart shows the same data on an inverted log scale (blue line, left), along with the actual subsequent 12 - year
nominal average
annual total return of the S&P 500 Index (red line, right).
The
nominal,
annual required
total return can be approximated as the real required
return plus the rate of inflation.