The UK Met Office - University of East Anglia (Morice et al., 2012) assessed the uncertainty in
annual temperature values for the southern hemisphere in the most recent version of their dataset (HadCRUT4) at approximately ± 0.5 °C in 1850, reducing to ± 0.3 °C in 1900.
The width of each year's curve reflects the uncertainty in
the annual temperature values (caused by factors such as changes in measurement techniques and the fact that some parts of the world have more sparse station coverage).
Not exact matches
With much of the country trapped in a sweltering heat - wave and the hottest summer months (August and September) about to begin, we wanted to examine whether this
annual rise in
temperature presents any
value to second - half MLB bettors.
The review by O'Gorman et al (3) reports that a 1C increase in global mean
temperature will result in a 2 % — 7 % increase in the precipitation rate; the lower
values are results of GCM output, and the upper
values are results from regressing estimated
annual rainfalls on
annual mean
temperatures.
An
annual value is available if there are 10 valid monthly
temperature anomaly
values.
In the
annual mean
values and particularly for the
temperatures since the Second World War, the corrections are minimal, as the following graph shows:
With
annual data, 50 years is short, but the results are very clear With land
temperature, the critical
value is -7.1 and the DW 1.94.
It shows the
annual values of the global
temperature with El Niño periods highlighted in red and La Niña periods in blue.
Thus, the simplest thing to do is to: a) construct a time series of
annual global
temperature averages, add a random component to each year (
value drawn from a gaussian with the given standard deviation and mean zero).
Figure 1 Global
temperature (
annual values) in the data from NASA GISS (orange) and from Cowtan & Way (blue), i.e. HadCRUT4 with interpolated data gaps.
Preliminary data for October indicate that
temperatures are continuing to be at a sufficiently high level to remain well above the 0.77 °C (1.39 °F)
annual value set in 2015.
El Niño and La Niña years were classifed as those with MEI
values of greater than 0.5 and less than -0.5, respectively (which correspond to warming or cooling effects of ~ 0.04 °C or more on the
annual global surface
temperature anomaly, according to Foster & Rahmstorf).
Clearly, to use a single
value (the global average
annual average surface
temperature trend) to characterize global warming is a naive approach and is misleading policymakers on the actual complexity of the climate system.
Figure 1: DMI daily
temperature values,
annual average and linear trend over the entire record period
Instead of changes in monthly
values of Temp and precip (and cloud cover) changes in
ANNUAL mean
temperature were used to force LPJ.
how well
temperatures during this upcoming growing season correlate with (average)
annual values.
By the way Kramm has recently shown that if the climate sensitivity to 2x CO2 is as small as your
value then it can not be discerned within the error of calculating any average
annual temperature and if something can't be observed then I wonder about its existence
«Calculating the
annual average
temperature of the 119
temperature gauges in Nepal located at elevations on between 72 m and 4100 m, reveals an upward trend in
values from 1961 — 1996 at a rate of almost 7C per 100 years (or 0.07 C / year)»
Assuming a full - glacial
temperature lapse rate of -6 °C / 1000m, depression of mean
annual temperature in glaciated alpine areas was ca 5.4 ± 0.8 °C; it is similar to
values of
temperature depression (5 - 6.4 °C) for the last glaciation obtained from various terrestrial sites, but contrasts with tropical sea - surface
temperature estimates that are only 1 - 3 °C cooler than present.
The cash
value of this is, that all of NASA's estimates of
annual mean global surface
temperatures come with an uncertainty of + / -(not less than 0.6) °C.
Furthermore, if we look at the SH non-smoothed
annual datafile and accept that the years 1944 - 1945 were the beginning of a trend - shift for global
temperatures, we see that in these years the southern hemispheric average
temperature was about 14.02 C and 13.96 C, respectively (assuming a 14C
value for the» 61 - ’90 SH average, I don't have any better
value but it doesn't matter very much).
14 Köppen Climate Classification System Most commonly used system Uses mean monthly and
annual values of
temperature and precipitation Five Principal Groups Humid Tropical Humid Mid-Latitude Dry Highland Polar
Annual global
temperature variations derived from these datasets typically agree to better than 0.1 °C for recent decades, but the spread in
values has been larger than this for the last two years.
Finally, our third chart depicts unrestrained
temperature variation, utilising maximum plot space in order to easily depict
temperature changes (albeit vastly magnified) and with a greatly magnified but proportionately correct trace gas representation (316 - 377ppmv
annual CO2 (Keeling and Whorf, May, 2005), missing
values omitted).
al. present
annual values, much of the Vostok ice cores yielded
temperature data every 200 years.
Based on the present work, we estimate that this effect may have raised the
annual mean
temperatures of De Bilt by 0.10 ± 0.06 °C during the 20th century, being almost the full
value of the present - day urban heat advection.