Sentences with phrase «anomalies at forecast»
These regional patterns are a result of regional ice thickness anomalies at forecast initialization.
https://www.arcus.org/ Not exact matches
I had attempted a similar project at the 3rd conference with my poster «Comparison of Climate Forecasts: Expert Opinions vs. Prediction Markets» in which my abstract proposed the following: «As an experiment, we will ask participants to go on the record with estimates of probability that the global temperature anomaly for calendar year 2012 will be equal to or greater than x, where x ranges in increments of 0.05 °C from 0.30 to 1.10 °C (relative to the 1951 - 1980 base period, and published by NASA GISS).»
It is that we should have known at every point if any accuracy was being lost as complexity was gained on what you characterised yesterday as the «cost driver» or «actionable forecast» (rightly or wrongly) of globally averaged temperature anomaly.
(Compare that to an anomaly persistence forecast which has zero skill at this lead time.)