Given the fact the the bulk of the energy in the TOA imbalance is getting stored in the ocean, yet temperature
anomalies over the ocean are less than over the land, for the above stated reasons, the global combined land and ocean (that is, air over the ocean) temperature anomalies actually tend to greatly understate to a the actual effects of the anthropogenic caused TOA anomaly.
Comparison of global lower troposphere temperature
anomaly over the oceans (blue line) to a model based on the first derivative of atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa (red line).
However, in the polar sea ice zones, GISTEMP extrapolates the land surface air temperature
anomalies over the oceans to a radial distance of 1,200 km (Hansen et al. 2010).
However, more station data became available; also, ocean data became available whose anomalies were used to estimate surface air temperature
anomalies over the oceans.
Not exact matches
The westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere, which increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal as part of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from
oceans to continents and are a major cause of the observed changes in winter storm tracks and related patterns of precipitation and temperature
anomalies, especially
over Europe.
The
ocean has a much higher heat capacity than land and thus
anomalies tend to vary less
over monthly timescales.
Last week there was a paper by Smith and colleagues in Science that tried to fill in those early years, using a model that initialises the heat content from the upper
ocean — with the idea that the structure of those
anomalies control the «weather» progression
over the next few years.
In models it is exact, while in the real world it needs to be approximated in various ways (2m SAT
anomalies over land, assumptions about representativeness, SST
over the
ocean, corrections for inhomogeneities etc.).
And since the Southern
Ocean SST
anomaly trend
over this period is negative, its interaction with the Southern Hemisphere
oceans lowers the trend of the dataset.
LTP /
ocean upwelling can generate low - frequency
anomalies that look like increasing trends
over very short (relative to
ocean circulation) time scales.
Conversely, low sea level pressure
anomalies over the Beaufort Sea and Canada Basin keep the Arctic
Ocean pack ice up against the western entrance.
Air temperatures at 925 millibar (about 3,000 ft above the surface) were mostly above average
over the Arctic
Ocean, with positive
anomalies of 4 to 6º Celsius
over the Chukchi and Bering seas on the Pacific side of the Arctic, and
over the East Greenland Sea on the Atlantic side.
Summer atmospheric circulation
anomalies over the Arctic
Ocean and their influences on September sea ice extent: A cautionary tale.
Key factors expected to influence the regional climate during the OND 2016 season include the evolution of Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
anomalies over the tropical
Oceans.
Overall of course, we do see higher temperature
anomalies over land on a historical basis, owing to the huge modulation role that the
ocean plays in the storage of excess energy and the higher humidity levels
over the
ocean.
At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific / Indian
Oceans results in rainfall reduction
over the Sahel, and positive SST
anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall.
It may also be of interest that
over the
oceans the climatic sensitivity is I think unlikely to be the prevailing factor in assessing the attribution of flux
anomalies, for periods shorter than about a century.
southern oscillation a large - scale atmospheric and hydrospheric fluctuation centered in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean; exhibits a nearly annual pressure anomaly, alternatively high over the Indian Ocean and high over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable, averaging 2.33 years; the variation in pressure is accompanied by variations in wind strengths, ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding
Ocean; exhibits a nearly annual pressure
anomaly, alternatively high
over the Indian
Ocean and high over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable, averaging 2.33 years; the variation in pressure is accompanied by variations in wind strengths, ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding
Ocean and high
over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable, averaging 2.33 years; the variation in pressure is accompanied by variations in wind strengths,
ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding
ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding areas
Given the context of this highly anomalous and extremely persistent atmospheric ridging
over the northeastern Pacific
Ocean, it's very interesting to note that there has also been a region of strongly positive sea surface temperature
anomalies in same the general vicinity for the past 10 - 11 months.
The negative AO phase is characterized by a high - pressure center
anomaly over the entire Arctic basin or polar cap and low - pressure center
anomalies in each
ocean basin in the mid-latitudes.
The positive AO phase is characterized by a low - pressure center
anomaly over the entire Arctic basin or polar cap (the region poleward of 60 ° N) and high - pressure center
anomalies in each
ocean basin in the mid-latitudes.
Map of air temperature
anomalies for December 2009, at the 925 millibar level (roughly 1,000 meters [3,000 feet] above the surface) for the region north of 30 degrees N, shows warmer than usual temperatures
over the Arctic
Ocean and cooler than normal temperatures
over central Eurasia, the United States and southwestern Canada.
Then the authors use the observed, or more accurately described «reconstructed,» flux
anomalies over the Arctic for the past three decades to force a forward
ocean model.
I'm very convinced that the physical process of global warming is continuing, which appears as a statistically significant increase of the global surface and tropospheric temperature
anomaly over a time scale of about 20 years and longer and also as trends in other climate variables (e.g., global
ocean heat content increase, Arctic and Antarctic ice decrease, mountain glacier decrease on average and others), and I don't see any scientific evidence according to which this trend has been broken, recently.
This unprecedented warmth is mainly due to the large positive temperature
anomalies in the Arctic
Ocean and
over the North American continents.
Over ocean stretches with a positive SST
anomaly air convection is higher (as the temperature difference between the warm sea surface and the cool air higher up in the troposphere is greater), so a higher likelihood for the formation of depressions exists and more precipitation is to be expected.
The standard deviation of the monthly MSU 2R
anomalies has a much more zonally symmetric structure (Fig. 4 and Fig. 5) so that relative to the surface there is a much larger contribution from the northern
oceans and a generally smaller contribution
over land and near the equator to the hemispheric and global means.
The best way to envision the relation between ENSO and precipitation
over East Africa is to regard the Indian
Ocean as a mirror of the Pacific
Ocean sea surface temperature
anomalies [much like the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool creates such a SST mirror with the Atlantic
Ocean too]: during a La Niña episode, waters in the eastern Pacific are relatively cool as strong trade winds blow the tropically Sun - warmed waters far towards the west.
Environmental variables estimated
over larger spatial and temporal scales included the upwelling index (UI) for 48 ° N, 125 ° W (http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov), an indicator of upwelling strength based on wind stress measurements, as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest), a composite indicator of
ocean temperature
anomalies [33], seawater temperature from Buoy 46041 ∼ 50 km to the southwest from Tatoosh (www.ndbc.noaa.gov), and remote sensing of chl a (SeaWiFS, AquaModis).
When SST
anomalies are positive in the tropical eastern Pacific, they are negative to the west and
over the central North and South Pacific, and positive
over the tropical Indian
Ocean and northeastern portions of the high latitude Pacific
Ocean.
To a large extent the probability forecasts in Figure 11 resemble the surface air temperature
anomaly of the last two months in Figure 7 in the high latitudes, illustrating the persistence of weak climate
anomalies over the sea ice and
ocean covered regions throughout the summer months.
Behavior of the sea ice
over the past winter and the spring and the large positive temperature
anomalies in the Arctic (as high as 20 degrees C
over large regions in the past winter) suggest that an extent near that of the 2012 minimum may occur again if there is large export of sea ice out to the Atlantic
Ocean via the Fram Strait.
Top row (a — c): Regressions of the leading detrended Z850 PC timeseries with
anomalies in continental Antarctic temperature from M10 (colors on Antarctic land), sea ice concentration (colors
over ocean; (note the sea ice colorscale is reversed with respect to the temperature colorscale), and geopotential height (contours).
Global temperatures usually are described in terms of the surface air temperature
anomaly, the deviation of the temperature at each site from a mean of many years that is averaged
over the whole world, both land and
oceans.
Total cloud cover detrended standardized
anomalies averaged
over the entire NARR domain; total cloud cover detrended standard
anomalies averaged
over continental landmass; total cloud cover detrended standard
anomalies averaged
over oceans; sun spot number and 10.7 cm solar radio flux; GCR neutron monitors; the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation; the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation; the North Atlantic Oscillation; and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
The inertia of the
oceans has already baked 0.6 degrees C — 11 years later now closer to 0.7 degrees C — into the climate system due to 37.5 years» worth of thermal inertia
over and above the +1.22 0.14 temperature
anomaly recorded by NOAA in March, 2016.
Over the last month or so warm sea - surface temperature [SST] and upper -
ocean heat content
anomalies have increased in the near - equatorial central Pacific, while the SST cool tongue in the near - equatorial far - eastern Pacific has weakened, with warm
anomalies now evident there.
In July, the Arctic Dipole
Anomaly (DA) pattern that was dominant in June (which promotes clear skies, warm air temperatures, and winds that push ice away from coastal areas and encourages melt) was replaced by low sea level pressure (SLP)
over the Arctic
Ocean, leading to ice divergence (ice extent «spreading out») and cooler temperatures.
... then why do the vertical mean temperature
anomalies (NODC 0 - 2000 meter data) of the Pacific
Ocean as a whole and of the North Atlantic fail to show any warming
over the past decade, a period when ARGO floats have measured subsurface temperatures, providing reasonably complete coverage of the global
oceans?
We find that
over a wide range of values of diapycnal diffusivity and Southern
Ocean winds, and with a variety of changes in surface boundary conditions, the spatial patterns of ocean temperature anomaly are nearly always determined as much or more by the existing heat reservoir redistribution than by the nearly passive uptake of temperature due to changes in the surface boundary condit
Ocean winds, and with a variety of changes in surface boundary conditions, the spatial patterns of
ocean temperature anomaly are nearly always determined as much or more by the existing heat reservoir redistribution than by the nearly passive uptake of temperature due to changes in the surface boundary condit
ocean temperature
anomaly are nearly always determined as much or more by the existing heat reservoir redistribution than by the nearly passive uptake of temperature due to changes in the surface boundary conditions.