The problem at this point is to determine which of the many characteristics of climate change they are indicating, and to what extent these changes can be attributed to the train of events set in motion by
anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases.
With regards the Arctic: As Gillett et al and Johanessen et al show — in models without
the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gasses the Arctic warming does not occur, add the GHG effect and the warming occurs in all ensembles.
Not exact matches
They found that
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
increased the risk
of the once - a-century wet January in 2014 by 43 % (uncertainty range: 0 - 160 %).
(«Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.»)
Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence
of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia3, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends.
Current state -
of - the - art climate models predict that
increasing water vapor concentrations in warmer air will amplify the
greenhouse effect created by
anthropogenic greenhouse gases while maintaining nearly constant relative humidity.
Moreover,
anthropogenic forcing from
increased greenhouse gases might outweigh orbital forcing for as long as intensive use
of fossil fuels continues [9].
Lastly, the third experiment asks this specific question: Did
anthropogenic greenhouse gases increase the probability
of major bark beetle outbreaks in western North America during the first decade
of the 21st century?
... Most
of the observed
increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
It is extremely likely that more than half
of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations and other
anthropogenic forcings together.
AR4: Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
AR5: It is extremely likely that more than half
of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations and other
anthropogenic forcings together.
Given that the trend in global SSTs has been attributed to
increases in
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (17 — 19), it follows that the best explanation for this ecosystem aberration is
anthropogenic warming that has passed a threshold
of natural variability.
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half
of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in
greenhouse gas... The best estimate
of the human - induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period....
The precise magnitude
of the
anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out
of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth - century
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
increased the risk
of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20 %, and in two out
of three cases by more than 90 %.
There are very few publishing scientists that do not endorse the IPCC (2007) conclusions that most
of the observed
increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Some
of them are optimal fingerprint detection studies (estimating the magnitude
of fingerprints for different external forcing factors in observations, and determining how likely such patterns could have occurred in observations by chance, and how likely they could be confused with climate response to other influences, using a statistically optimal metric), some
of them use simpler methods, such as comparisons between data and climate model simulations with and without
greenhouse gas increases /
anthropogenic forcing, and some are even based only on observations.
But that's just it, Paul, within the scientific community
anthropogenic causation
of increasing greenhouse gases,
greenhouse gas - induced warming, and potential climate effects and impacts
of increased warming are accepted science.
In Part I we outlined some general features
of the tropical circulation, and discussed ways in which
increases in
anthropogenic greenhouse gases might affect El Niño.
In a paper that recently appeared in Nature, Vecchi, Soden, Wittenberg, Held, Leetmaa and Harrison present intriguing new results which suggest that there has already been a weakening
of the Walker circulation in the past century, and that the observed changes are consistent with those expected as a response to
increases in
anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
The receding and thinning
of Himalayan glaciers can be attributed primarily to the global warming due to
increase in
anthropogenic emission
of greenhouse gases.
In 2001 it was claimed «there is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities» and the current report concludes says it is: «90 % probable» that the recent warming is «due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations».
Recognizes that warming
of the climate system is unequivocal and that most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid twentieth century is very likely due to the
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report;
This intensification has resulted in significantly greater global summer monsoon rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere than predicted from
greenhouse -
gas - induced warming alone: namely a 9.5 %
increase, compared to the
anthropogenic predicted contribution
of 2.6 % per degree
of global warming.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gases have significantly
increased the probability
of heavy precipitation and local flood risk, report two papers in Nature this week.
Anthropogenic global warming (AGW), a recent warming
of the Earth's lower atmosphere as evidenced by the global mean temperature anomaly trend [11], is BELIEVED to be the result
of an «enhanced
greenhouse effect» mainly due to human - produced
increased concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [12] and changes in the use
of land [13].
This
increase is more than double the IPCC's estimated radiative forcing from all
anthropogenic emissions
of greenhouse gases.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half
of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic [human - caused]
increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations and other
anthropogenic forcings together.»
Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence
of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends.
The statement is compatible with what the IPCC say - «Most
of the observed
increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations».
One driver
of temperatures in this region is the abundance and variability
of ozone, but water vapor, volcanic aerosols, and dynamical changes such as the Quasi - Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are also significant;
anthropogenic increases in other
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide play a lesser but significant role in the lower stratosphere.
The statement in IPCC with which you take issue was «Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations» so it's not 20 years either.
This is the portion
of temperature change that is imposed on the ocean - atmosphere - land system from the outside and it includes contributions from
anthropogenic increases in
greenhouse gasses, aerosols, and land - use change as well as changes in solar radiation and volcanic aerosols.
Hanoi, Viet Nam, 26 February 2018 — In his welcome remarks to participants
of the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) workshop, APN Secretariat Director, Mr. Seiji Tsutsui underscored that «Southeast Asia is a natural disaster - prone region, and it is predicted that disasters such as floods, typhoons, high - tides and landslides will be more extreme because
of the
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and
increasing population concentration in urban areas.»
This paper examines in detail the statement in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that «Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations».
The IPCC statement that most
of the observed
increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations» is very much dependent on what weighting was given to natural (mainly solar) forcing over this period.
These conclusions are contrary to the IPCC [2007] statement: «[M] ost
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Thus: Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
``... warming
of the climate system is unequivocal... most
of the global average warming over the past 50 years is very likely due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gases increases...» — Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman
of the IPCC, Nobel Prize acceptance speech, Dec. 10, 2007
This backs up the IPCC attribution statement «It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] more than half
of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations and other
anthropogenic forcings together.»
Again IPCC attribution statement: «It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] more than half
of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations and other
anthropogenic forcings together.»
One
of the problems with the EPA's Endangerment TSD is the nearly complete disregard
of observed trends in a wide array
of measures which by and large show that despite decades
of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions the U.S. population does not seem to have been adversely affected by any vulnerabilities, risks, and impacts that may have arisen (to the extent that any at all have actually occurred as the result
of any human - induced climate changes).
Judith, re your issue «Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.»
As professional scientists, from students to senior professors, we uphold the findings
of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which concludes that «Warming
of the climate system is unequivocal» and that «Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations».
Mike: Most
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.»
Results
of the detection and attribution analysis shows that these declines are attributable to the
anthropogenic forcing, which is dominated by the effect
of increases in
greenhouse gas concentration, and that they are not caused by natural forcing due to volcanic activity and solar variability combined.
Scientists keep track
of natural forcings, but the observed warming
of the planet over the second half
of the 20th century can only be explained by adding in
anthropogenic radiative forcings, namely
increases in
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.
In addition, he discussed the
increase of atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations and the consequent
anthropogenic warming
of the climate system, decrease in sea ice and
increase in ocean acidity.
To suggest that because near surface temperatures have flattened at or near the highest on record requires «abandoning» a sinking ship is to be grossly underinformed about the full scope and scale
of the multiple changes going on and the confidence that
anthropogenic climate continues unabated as it will so long as humans continue to
increase greenhouse gas concentrations.
In times when the oceans are warming, there could be several factors that influence this, each with varying contributions based on natural and / or
anthropogenic variability: 1) Greater solar output 2) Less aerosols in the atmosphere 3) Less cloudiness (especially
of a certain type) 4)
Increased greenhouse gases