The WMO says the combined causes of this historically unprecedented heat are both natural and human - induced: a strong El Niño − the periodic climate phenomenon in the Pacific − and
anthropogenic warming resulting from the rising emissions of greenhouse gases, largely through the burning of fossil fuels, agriculture and deforestation.
How much of the alleged
anthropogenic warming resulted from water vapor feedback?
Not exact matches
But the period of time over which the team analysed the long - term trend in
warming was the past 50 years, in which this oscillation hasn't changed significantly — so almost all the
warming looks to have been the
result of
anthropogenic climate change.
Assuming the current
anthropogenic CO2 forcing is larger than orbital forcings, shouldn't we expect more than 5C
warming as an ultimate
result?
To the extent that such obstruction and delay is successful, it will lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions of people as a direct
result of
anthropogenic global
warming that could have been avoided by earlier action.
However, with a peer review system, it is not possible to take the second option and as a
result, the dangers of
anthropogenic global
warming have gone by default.
Quoting directly Climate change as a
result of human activities, or
anthropogenic global
warming, is now generally accepted as reality and includes a wide range of climatic processes and impacts in the global system that are affected by human activities.
Three IPCC climate models, recent NASA Aqua satellite data, and a simple 3 - layer climate model are used together to demonstrate that the IPCC climate models are far too sensitive,
resulting in their prediction of too much global
warming in response to
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
«Their unceasing drum - beat for
Anthropogenic Global
Warming will ultimately discredit their otherwise worthwhile and necessary programs to reduce human pollution as a
result of unrestricted human population and economic growth.»
Our
results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected
anthropogenic warming.»
Again, I'm not an expert and I haven't formed an opinion on what percentage of the
warming is due to
anthropogenic influence, but I have yet to see anyone suggest that anything good might
result from
warming.
Third, the recent paper by Samset et al in GRL found that the loss of the cooling
anthropogenic aerosols (primarily sulphates) emitted with fossil fuels combustion (mostly from coal and bunker fuels) would
result in a near real - time
warming of 0.5 C to 1.1 C.
Our
results support previous findings of a reduced rate of surface
warming over the 2001 — 2014 period — a period in which
anthropogenic forcing increased at a relatively constant rate.»
These
results imply that 20th - century
warming, apparently
anthropogenic, has already affected lower trophic levels of the California Current.
The first part of your description is certainly true, I don't think the magnitude of the recent
warming in the Arctic (including Greenland) is extraordinary (yet, but ask me again is a few years) when properly set against the backdrop of the last century, but I do believe that, at least to some degree, the
warming of the Arctic (including Greenland) in recent years has
resulted from an
anthropogenic enhancement to the world's greenhouse effect.
Total
anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began,
results in a most likely peak carbon - dioxide induced
warming of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5 — 95 % confidence interval of 1.3 — 3.9 degrees Celsius.
The observed
warming is likely the
result of a combined effect: data strongly suggest that the AMO has been in a
warming phase for the past two or three decades, and we also know that at the same time
anthropogenic global
warming is ongoing.
«The climatic forcings
resulting from such solar — terrestrial links may have had a significant impact on climate prior to the onset of
anthropogenic warming».
Thomas Lee Elifritz (# 70), you quote the authors: «The climatic forcings
resulting from such solar — terrestrial links may have had a significant impact on climate prior to the onset of
anthropogenic warming».
Anthropogenic climate change will mean an increased average temperature for the oceans and possible changes in current systems that could locally amplify or reduce
warming and can alter nutrient cycling
resulting in changes in the amount of nutrients available for the growth of phytoplankton, the plant plankton that are the base of the food chain.
CAGW or Catastrophic
Anthropogenic Global
Warming is the acronym used (mostly by those that don't support taking immediate action on climate change) for the theory (or collection of hypotheses) that attribute most of the observed modern warming to human activities and warn that continuing similar activities (mostly emitting CO2) could result in warming that is dangerous to both civilization and a number of ecos
Warming is the acronym used (mostly by those that don't support taking immediate action on climate change) for the theory (or collection of hypotheses) that attribute most of the observed modern
warming to human activities and warn that continuing similar activities (mostly emitting CO2) could result in warming that is dangerous to both civilization and a number of ecos
warming to human activities and warn that continuing similar activities (mostly emitting CO2) could
result in
warming that is dangerous to both civilization and a number of ecos
warming that is dangerous to both civilization and a number of ecosystems.
Steve: I think the
results from Hoyos et al. fit nicely with our GRL
results — SSTs are only part of the equation (at least in the North Atlantic — and neither paper makes it clear that
anthropogenic effects are the primary cause of the
warming of Atlantic SSTs during the past few decades.
No, scientific inquiry and
results published in peer - reviewed scientific literature have shown the recent global
warming is primarily due to
anthropogenic GHG emissions.
Sadly, in recent years we have become accustomed to a ritual in which the publication of each new
result on
anthropogenic climate change is greeted by a flurry of activity from industry - funded lobby groups, think tanks and PR professionals, who try to discredit the science and confuse the public about global
warming.
This intensification has
resulted in significantly greater global summer monsoon rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere than predicted from greenhouse - gas - induced
warming alone: namely a 9.5 % increase, compared to the
anthropogenic predicted contribution of 2.6 % per degree of global
warming.
Anthropogenic forcing,
resulting in thermal expansion from ocean
warming and glacier mass loss, has very likely contributed to sea level rise during the latter half of the 20th century.
Multi-signal detection and attribution analyses, which quantify the contributions of different natural and
anthropogenic forcings to observed changes, show that greenhouse gas forcing alone during the past half century would likely have
resulted in greater than the observed
warming if there had not been an offsetting cooling effect from aerosol and other forcings.
[Response: There is evidence that the enhanced continental winter
warming in the Northern Hemisphere, which has
resulted at least in part from a recent trend towards the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), may in fact also represent a response to
anthropogenic impacts on climate.
Anthropogenic global
warming (AGW), a recent
warming of the Earth's lower atmosphere as evidenced by the global mean temperature anomaly trend [11], is BELIEVED to be the
result of an «enhanced greenhouse effect» mainly due to human - produced increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [12] and changes in the use of land [13].
As a
result, their approach overestimates
anthropogenic warming before 1950, and underestimates it after 1950.
Results show that
anthropogenic warming reduced average snowpack levels by 25 %, with middle - to - low elevations experiencing reductions between 26 and 43 %
For Antarctica, large observational uncertainties
result in low confidence that
anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the observed
warming averaged over available stations.
Mr. Gates may be absolutely correct that when the arctic is
warmed there
results some (serious) additional
warming: however, if that
warming is not caused overwhelmingly by
anthropogenic sources, then — at the very least — we can halt the alarmist cry over CO2 emissions and start the important work of science.
That is, a
warming planet (
anthropogenic or otherwise) would
result in less volatile temp patterns.
Their main claim is that unless human CO2 emissions are controlled, catastrophic
anthropogenic global
warming (CAGW) will
result.
On the other hand, if the null hypothesis is that
warming is not primarily
anthropogenic, this could not be conclusively proved but could be conclusively disproved (depending on the
results of course).
In response to commenters wondering how we obtained our
results when Cook had not made his data available, in fact he did release a data file listing the titles and authors of all 11,944 abstracts in his survey, together with his or his co-authors» assessment of what he called their «level of endorsement» of the «consensus» that most of the global
warming since 1950 was
anthropogenic.
Anthropogenic effects can also cause a non-climatic cooling, for example, as a
result of irrigation and planting of vegetation, but these effects are usually outweighed by urban
warming.
But the IPCC concerns itself with consideration of
anthropogenic (i.e. man - made) global
warming (AGW) as a
result of emissions of greenhouse gases (notably carbon dioxide, CO2) from human activities.
As I said, a 0.2 C underestimation of what «average SST should be would
result in the appearance of 0.8 C of
warming due to something
anthropogenic.
However, most of today's observed changes are occurring as a
result of
anthropogenic warming due to the large amount of CO2 that humans have added to the atmosphere.
For convenience let DGT (for detrended global temperature) denote the
result of detrending global temperature GT (defined as the dataset HadCRUT3) by
anthropogenic global
warming, AGW.
The great challenge is: 3) Will
anthropogenic causes
result in catastrophic global
warming?
For the sea of humanity that is increasingly feeing the changing conditions
resulting from a
warmer climate brought on by
anthropogenic interference, it is clear what must be done — reduce emissions dramatically in the developed countries.
Since there was not available any evidence in reality for the believed,
anthropogenic warming, IPCC adopted
results of climate models in order to prove that.
This is because no scientifically valid evidence has been found that increasing human - caused CO2 emissions would
result in Catastrophic
Anthropogenic Global
Warming (CAGW) nor that it would even have a statistically significant effect on increasing global temperatures.
None of that money goes to the researchers who are actually generating the
results that point to
anthropogenic warming, so it can't possibly provide an incentive to them.
«We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records from GISS (NASA) with the 100 - year period covering 1906 - 2005 and the two 50 - year periods from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005... The data document a strong urban heat island eff ect (UHI) and a
warming with increasing station elevation... About a quarter of all the records for the 100 - year period show a fall in temperatures... that the observed temperature records are a combination of long - term correlated records with an additional trend, which is caused for instance by
anthropogenic CO2, the UHI or other forcings... As a
result, the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40 % and 90 %, depending on the stations characteristics and the periods considered.»
The very
warm first decade of the century that established many records is a
result of the step
warming I described, and has nothing to do with any
anthropogenic warming.
First
result:... there is no «consensus» among scientists that recent global
warming was chiefly
anthropogenic, still less that unmitigated
anthropogenic warming has been or will be dangerous or catastrophic...