Butler Philbrick Gordillo and Associates» argue in Valuation Based Equity Market Forecasts — Q1 2013 Update that «there is substantial value in
applying simple statistical models to discover average estimates of what the future may hold over meaningful investment horizons (10 + years), while acknowledging the wide range of possibilities that exist around these averages.»
-LSB-...] capitalization - to - gross national product, and the equity q ratio, all three examined together in The Physics Of Investing In Expensive Markets: How to
Apply Simple Statistical Models).
For more on market value - to - GNP see my earlier posts Warren Buffett Talks... Total Market Value - To - Gross National Product, Warren Buffett and John Hussman On The Stock Market, FRED on Buffett's favored market measure: Total Market Value - to - GNP, The Physics Of Investing In Expensive Markets: How to
Apply Simple Statistical Models.
The best explanation I have seen for wariness at various points in the market is Butler Philbrick Gordillo's in The Physics Of Investing In Expensive Markets: How to
Apply Simple Statistical Models:
Not exact matches
When you
apply a
statistical method to a complex
model, you'd want to first check that the method gives sensible results on
simple models.
When you
apply a
statistical method to a complex
model, you'd want to first check that the method gives sensible results on
simple models.