Like Japan in the 1980s, China's export - driven economic success and high savings rate needs a relief valve if it is to avoid rapid
appreciation of its currency, the renminbi, the exchange rate of which is carefully managed.
You may disagree with Krugman's analysis, but it's a little disingenuous to try to denigrate and dismiss Thomas Mulcair's economic ideas when they're based on Nobel prize winning work in economics (the intellectual case, that is; the factual case that this phenomenon is occurring today, in Canada, is purely a question of whether
the appreciation of our currency is based on the oil and gas boom and whether a high dollar results in lower exports in other sectors, both of which you seem to have admitted are accurate.)
But [the increase in commodity prices] is just the beginning of the story, accounting for about one - half of
the appreciation of our currency over the past decade.
Despite stronger than expected growth in the second half, the central bank has actually reduced its outlook for the next two years, saying that's when the current
appreciation of the currency will show up in growth figures.
It seems more likely Beijing would consider taking over foreign businesses, especially given its largest US$ 1.9 trillion foreign exchange reserve in the world, and
the appreciation of its currency by 9 % y - o - y against the US dollar, or 40 % y - o - y against the Canadian dollar, or over 20 % against both currencies since July 21, 2005 when the Chinese central bank allowed its RMB to float.
Bank of America Merrill Lunch says that a 10 %
appreciation of the currency removes 40 - 50 basis points from medium - term inflation forecasts.
While the magnitude of this fall partly reflects
the appreciation of the currency, it also reflects ongoing price declines associated with global overproduction and high productivity growth continuing in this sector.
Overall CPI inflation was a more modest 1.6 per cent over the year, held down by weakness in the prices of internationally tradable goods flowing from
the appreciation of the currency.
Over recent years countries in Asia have been intervening heavily (buying US dollars and selling their own currencies) in order to prevent
an appreciation of their currencies.
Higher demand generally leads to higher prices and neither the US nor Europe want to see
an appreciation of their currencies.
Not exact matches
The
currency effect was a negative 6.6 %, primarily attributable to the
appreciation of the euro versus the US dollar.
The PBoC described the devaluation as small compared with the yuan's
appreciation in recent years or the depreciation
of the
currencies of its economic rivals in Asia and Europe.
However, some economists believe that given the economic growth in the region — which the ECB foresees at 2.3 percent
of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 — consumers will be able to sustain the
appreciation in the
currency and the ECB won't be forced to stimulate the economy.
The central bank also released its latest quarterly report on the economy, which says, «export growth will be limited by the recent
appreciation of the Canadian dollar, alongside that
of the U.S. dollar, vis - à - vis most other
currencies.»
This is despite the 30 %
appreciation of the yuan against a basket
of currencies over the past decade.
«The rapid
appreciation of Bitcoin and others is somewhat surprising in light
of some developments that seemingly would have put downward pressure on the
currency,» another group
of Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, citing the SEC's rejection
of a Bitcoin ETF, among other factors.
Control
of the short rate is possible because monetary policy shifts the expected rate
of currency appreciation or depreciation.
On the other hand, the recent
appreciation of the yuan against a basket
of currencies created by the Chinese government, is mainly artificial.
When you invest in Bitcoin (or gold, or the price
of oil, or other commodities, or any other
currency, or fine art), you are betting the farm on price
appreciation alone.
An
appreciation of the U.S. dollar against most other
currencies largely explained the fall in travel costs in 2015.
CAPITALIZING ON GLOBAL BONDS &
CURRENCY OPPORTUNITIES Templeton Global Bond Fund seeks current income with capital
appreciation and growth
of income by investing predominantly in bonds
of governments and government agencies around the world.
Since Canada is a major exporter
of many commodities, an increase in prices means that the world is prepared to pay more for the Canadian dollars ultimately required to purchase them, thus creating an
appreciation in our
currency.
A strong dollar has been, and still is, the main foe
of EM
currency appreciation.
But there is a «sweet spot»
of ongoing dollar
appreciation for EM
currencies and markets.
International stocks could rise from the benefits
of improved economic growth, and hedging the
currency means any dollar
appreciation associated with higher rates won't harm investors.
In recent months digital
currencies like Bitcoin have caught the attention
of the investment world due to their rapid price
appreciation and potentially disruptive technologies.
Around 95 per cent
of the
appreciation in the
currency from its lows in April 2001 has occurred in overnight trading.
In contrast to the strength in volumes, the value
of total imports declined by around 5 per cent over the year to the December quarter, as the
currency appreciation has lowered Australian dollar import prices.
The point which Ben very appropriately emphasizes is that unmanaged secular stagnation in one place is contagious — that a higher level
of saving over investment leading to low interest rates in one place, leads to current account surplus, leads to a capital outflow, which then leads to
currency depreciation, leads to
currency appreciation in other places, and leads therefore to spreading low demand and low interest rates everywhere.
An
appreciation of the exchange rate means that: the increase in the domestic
currency price
of commodity exports will be less than the increase in world commodity prices; the income
of the other tradable sector will fall; and real income gains flow to the broader economy via the associated decline in the price
of imports.
Domestic inflationary pressures, associated with higher wages and incomes, will lead to higher inflation for non-tradable goods and services but, at the same time, the gradual pass through
of the initial exchange rate
appreciation will lead to lower inflation for tradable goods and services (whose prices in foreign
currency terms depend to a significant extent on global considerations).
Also implied volatilities were larger for «out
of the money» options to buy renminbi, than for equally «out
of the money» options to sell the
currency, thereby suggesting that the balance
of expectations was skewed towards an
appreciation of the Chinese
currency against the US dollar.
«Bitcoin owners are reluctant to use the cryptocurrency given its rate
of appreciation, more evidence that bitcoin is more asset than
currency,» Faucette said.
Other measures, such as exchange controls, are also being used to stem the
appreciation of local
currencies, with the authorities in Thailand announcing in October a package
of measures, including suspension
of interest payments to overseas holders
of Thai cheque and savings accounts and a deposit ceiling
of 300 million baht (US$ 7.5 million) per account.
While the Australian dollar has appreciated more than some
of these other
currencies, the additional
appreciation is not that large (see Graph 24), and, as noted above, the Australian dollar remains below average levels against
currencies such as the euro and yen.
Overall CPI inflation, however, remains at the lower end
of the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand's 1 — 3 per cent target band, with the
currency appreciation exerting a dampening influence.
One offset to this brighter outlook, though, is the
appreciation of the exchange rate, which reduces the Australian dollar proceeds
of foreign -
currency export receipts.
The
appreciation of the Australian dollar has been less marked against the euro, and the
currencies of a number
of countries that Australia competes with in international markets.
As noted, Asian
currencies are important in the TWI and the
appreciation against these
currencies accounts for about two - thirds
of the 18 per cent rise in the TWI over the past year.
Both the US and Europe may choose print more to slow the
appreciation of their respective
currency, and in turn, shockwaves will be felt around the world.
While we believe that temporary factors have amplified the drop in services inflation, the ECB will likely worry about potential second - round effects
of lower oil prices and
currency appreciation on the price
of some other (non-energy) goods and services, including on Non-Energy Industrial Goods inflation which fell sharply, from 0.7 % to 0.3 % in February.
You'll notice that many
of the YTD returns are different when adjusted for local
currency appreciation or depreciation and the relative devaluation
of various emerging market
currencies is another theme that has come to the fore in 2014.
Our own models suggest that second - round effects will remain contained barring another episode
of currency appreciation [2].
But that is what an
appreciation in the price
of gold is based on; paper money has to fall in value, due to a lack
of confidence in the economic stability
of the government
of the country that issues the
currency.
But in the absence
of any suggestion that the
currency's
appreciation would delay a tapering
of bond purchases, the single
currency's rally — which by the end
of August had taken it above US$ 1.20 for the first time since the start
of 2015 — resumed, following a brief pause in the run - up to the ECB meeting.
Currency impact can be managed by hedging local currencies back into U.S. dollar, allowing investors to potentially earn local market yields and take advantage of potential local bond price appreciation, with less currency fluct
Currency impact can be managed by hedging local
currencies back into U.S. dollar, allowing investors to potentially earn local market yields and take advantage
of potential local bond price
appreciation, with less
currency fluct
currency fluctuations.
Currency Hedges As noted by the strong
appreciation of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, up 6.7 % during the third quarter, the U.S. dollar has strengthened versus most global
currencies.
As a result, the real effective exchange rate
of Spain has depreciated by around 7 per cent since 2008, in contrast to an
appreciation of 1 per cent in Germany — an improvement achieved despite Spain's inability to devaluate its own
currency.
To the extent that it allows the opponents
of reform to paint the issue
of currency appreciation as bowing to outside pressure, the answer is likely no.
A former Economic Adviser to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Prof. Ode Ojowu said the measure would further create problems for
currency speculators who had not recover from the sudden
appreciation of the Naira.