It maintains
an approximate normal distribution that accumulates to an average 1.14 % monthly fair return over 600 months, but with a standard deviation of 4.67 %, which is a high level of short - term volatility.
Not exact matches
(Long - 26 minutes) Presentation on spreadsheet to show that the
normal distribution approximates the binomial
distribution for a large number of trials.
Each can be
approximated reasonably well by a standard
normal (Gaussian, bell shaped)
distribution in terms of percentages (i.e., they are lognormal).
So, this suggests we can simply use a
normal distribution with the given sigma value (0.05) to
approximate the uncertainty
distribution for each year.
«Nonlinearities often manifest themselves as non-normality in the proxy
distribution, despite the target climate quantity being well
approximated by a
normal distribution.
Most ECS
distributions should
approximate that of a ratio of two
normal distributions with the denominator
distribution having greater relative variance; they should not be lognormal.
At some point above and below the mean, temperatures must cease to
approximate to the
normal distribution.
To illustrate my point, consider a series of throws of two six sided dice, which will
approximate to a
normal distribution.
Motl makes the assumption that because temperature
distributions approximate to a
normal distribution between -2 and 2 sigma, therefore they must continue that approximation out beyond 3 sigma.
It is commonly assumed that this variability can be
approximated as a
normal (Gaussian)
distribution, the so - called bell curve.