Summarize findings to date on how Arctic communities, both urban and rural, are perceiving, understanding, responding, and adapting to
arctic change.
Evaluate the progress to date, the gaps in and the successes and failures of, efforts to communicate and educate the broad public about
arctic change.
Therefore, to address human responses to
arctic change both within Arctic societies, and in the more distant but also critically involved society outside the Arctic, this goal requires strong links with social science.
First I'll note that if AGW (anthroppogenic global warming) is basically sound science, then it's overwhelmingly likely to be the cause of
arctic change.
Now, my question is, if you know the answer: How high is the probability that
arctic change is caused by AGW versus that is just natural variation of some kind (confidence level)?
Do we consider
that arctic change has urgency over the next decade or will there not be large changes until the second half of the century?
How would an ice - free
arctic change the picture?
A few media outlets are mentioning the growing evidence for a link to
arctic changes but even as the freeze makes a triple - dip recession more likely few people are making the connection while they struggle to face the worst economic situation since the 30s.
Not exact matches
Think about the
changes that the rainy season brings to India, or winter and summer in the
arctic.
For nearly two decades, scientists have noted dramatic
changes in
arctic tundra habitat.
Changes in N2 fixation due to global warming will alter N input to
arctic ecosystems with significant consequences for plant growth.
«Shifting tundra vegetation spells
change for
arctic animals.»
To more fully understand
Arctic lake dynamics and to document the
changes we have observed requires also doing fieldwork under often harsh conditions during the cold and dark
arctic winter,» said Benjamin Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey in Anchorage and co-author of the new study.
This study was the first to simulate whole ecosystem warming in the
arctic, including permafrost degradation, similar to what is projected to happen as a result of climate
change.
According to Dr. Natali, «There is 100 times more carbon stored belowground than aboveground in the
arctic, so observed
changes in plant productivity are only a very small component of the story.
Another trend that seems equally destined to last is profound interest in
arctic manifestations of global climate
change.
The Greenland site is accessible year - round, but global climate
change could make finding gems in the Canadian
arctic easier.
Using published data from the circumpolar
arctic, their own new field observations of Siberian permafrost and thermokarsts, radiocarbon dating, atmospheric modeling, and spatial analyses, the research team studied how thawing permafrost is affecting climate
change and greenhouse gas emissions.
The first comprehensive analysis of the woolly mammoth genome reveals extensive genetic
changes that allowed mammoths to adapt to life in the
arctic.
arctic chart Schematics of the teleconnection through which
Arctic sea - ice
changes drive precipitation decrease over California.
On the other hand, some
changing disease patterns could be beneficial —
arctic foxes may not be able to carry rabies to Svalbard via an ice trek as they have in the past, for example.
With renewed interest in
arctic oil and gas development and recognition that the polar regions are early warning systems for climate
change, both foreign and Canadian researchers once again are focusing on the
Arctic.
He said that sensitivity includes water vapour and
arctic sea ice, but I suspect that the
changes in sea ice in the models are much less than we are seeing in practice.
Virtually ice - free summers in the
arctic sea could well arrive by 2030, with troubling implications for accelerated albedo feedback and possibly disruptive
changes in the jet stream.
Hinzman, L.D., et al., 2005: Evidence and implications of recent climate
change in northern Alaska and other
arctic regions.
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Since IPCC (2001) the cryosphere has undergone significant
changes, such as the substantial retreat of
arctic sea ice, especially in summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in spring; the earlier breakup of river and lake ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast, indicating increased basal melting due to increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the ice shelves.
The ocean heat content
change is from this section and Levitus et al. (2005c); glaciers, ice caps and Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Chapter 4; continental heat content from Beltrami et al. (2002); atmospheric energy content based on Trenberth et al. (2001); and
arctic sea ice release from Hilmer and Lemke (2000).
This includes
changes in heat content of the lithosphere (Beltrami et al., 2002), the atmosphere (e.g., Trenberth et al., 2001) and the total heat of fusion due to melting of i) glaciers, ice caps and the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (see Chapter 4) and ii)
arctic sea ice (Hilmer and Lemke, 2000).
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The Finnish Meteorological Institute is a leading expert in meteorology, air quality, climate
change, earth observation, marine and
arctic research areas.
Prevalence of algal toxins in Alaskan marine mammals foraging in a
changing arctic and subarctic environment.
Effects of climate
change on
arctic marine mammal health.
More data on impact of
changing local weather patterns, maybe putting more personal ground - based perspective to melting
arctic ice: http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20131202/winter-what-winter-barrows-october-november-downright-balmy (captcha: thanks ideafun)
Her research suggests that the Putin administration welcomes climate
change as beneficial for Russia, and foresees increased development in Siberia and along the shores of the
arctic.
4) The permafrost, like the ice shelves, is buffered from temperature
changes by
arctic sea ice.
It should be sufficient to potentially
change some poeple's beliefs / opinions and their future behavior / responses about ghg feedbacks driven by the
arctic regions as temperatures and ghg emissions continue to rise the next 25 years at least with NO CH4 + CO2 feedback mechanisms.
I've been told by a friend that James Hansen once said that albedo
changes from melting the
arctic sea ice would capture as much additional heat as doubling CO2.
There is no denying that the
arctic is melting at a record - setting pace and that this is related to global warming and climate
change, but Box is pursuing a theory that soot from wildfires and burning coal in power plants is making Greenland's glaciers melt even faster than they would because of global warming alone.
Observed
arctic sea ice reductions can be simulated fairly well in models driven by historical circulation and temperature
changes.
Karl Schroeder: If there is any life on Earth in 100 years, I foresee either an ecological catastrophe, with the majority of species extinct, the oceans stagnant, the
arctic and Antarctic desolate and lifeless, and billions of people living in complete ignorance of how things could be, in massive urban centres; or, a world in which climate
change was solved early and completely through innovations in power generation and carbon sequestration, where agriculture has gone to vertical farming and North America has largely been rewilded back to forest and open prairie, and where extinct species are regularly recreated by genetic engineering and reintroduced.
Here's my uneducated question — while I respect Gavin's comments about not abusing the science, it seems to me that many measurable indicators of climate
change are (to the extent I can tell) occurring / progressing / worsening faster than predicted by most models, whether we're talking about atmospheric CO2 levels,
arctic ice melting, glacial retreat, etc..
This idea of volcanoes instead of atmpospheric
changes causing the
arctic ice to melt was a rumor started by people like Rush Limbaugh, and was immediately debunked by several Dot Earth posters.
Paul responds by saying there's been very little
change in
arctic temperatures.
How much more rapid and obvious
change in the
arctic do they need I wonder?
The rise of CO2 from 270ppm to now over 400ppm, the extent of equatorial and sub tropical deforestation, the soot deposits on the polar ice caps, the increase in atmospheric water vapour due to a corresponding increase in ocean temps and
changes in ocean currents, the extreme ice albedo currently happening in the
arctic etc, etc are all conspiring in tandem to alter the climate as we know it.
I think this would create a bit of thermal imbalance in the climate and also would mean large
changes in the weather pattern, which would * not * be limited only in the
arctic region...
Like the ice free
arctic, there is not a single thing we can do to
change this cycle.