Not exact matches
He said that sensitivity includes
water vapour and
arctic sea ice, but I suspect that the changes in
sea ice in the models are much less than we are seeing in practice.
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Apart albedo, shouldn't we expect a classical
water vapour feedback (and so DLF forcing) as
arctic ice is melting and
arctic seas / ocean warming?
Also less ice cover allows the vastly warmer
sea water to warm the much colder
arctic air.
A good point as
arctic regions that are hit with warmer
water streams will prevent
sea ice extent while those with colder ones can massivly increase in volume when the air is cold enough though no growth would be visible from the top down view.
[2] Expected impacts include a
sea level rise up to 6 - 7m, melting permafrost in the
arctic regions, large - scale agricultural losses, increased
water scarcity, a collapse of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and an increase of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts or devastating storms.
IMO, none of this supports the «open
water» nonsense we got from the press last winter unless you want to restrict global
arctic sea ice to the Hudson Bay.
It emphasises that there is a strong internal relationship between the formation, stability and extent of
sea ‐ ice and the structure of the upper layer of the
Arctic ocean: it is the relative area and depth of low - salinity
arctic water above the halocline that are paramount to ice formation and its summer survival.
To summarise the arguments presented so far concerning ice - loss in the
arctic basin, at least four mechanisms must be recognised: (i) a momentum - induced slowing of winter ice formation, (ii) upward heat - flux from anomalously warm Atlantic
water through the surface low ‐ salinity layer below the ice, (iii) wind patterns that cause the export of anomalous amounts of drift ice through the Fram Straits and disperse pack - ice in the western basin and (iv) the anomalous flux of warm Bering
Sea water into the eastern
Arctic of the mid 1990s.
And, once the summer season is passed, the ever - colder
Arctic air masses remove even more heat from the under - ice
water up through the
sea ice by conduction into the -25 deg
arctic air.
Zhang, J., M. Steele, and R. Woodgate, The role of Pacific
water in the dramatic retreat of
arctic sea ice during summer 2007, J. Polar Science, 19 (2), 93 - 107, 2008.
There are useful things that can be said related to Atlantic temperatures,
sea level, and
water vapour, but the specific circulation link to
arctic sea ice is tenuous at best, and completely speculative at worst.
Spraying
sea water into the
arctic is ******** moronic.