We won't need to wait long for that:
The arctic summer ice will be gone in about a decade.
The range of responses (2.9 to 5.6 million square kilometers) illustrates several of the challenges faced by any forecast of
arctic summer ice evolution.
MattN (13:03:55): «I can think of another reason that
arctic summer ice is the talking point for AGW.
The arctic summer ice minimum extent also dropped, about 20 to 25 %, during this period when air temperatures were falling.
Glaciers have continued to melt at accelerating rates,
arctic summer ice is declining at accelerating rates, more 6 - 10 thousand year old ice shelves are collapsing.
Is
the arctic summer ice cap melting?
Not exact matches
Virtually
ice - free
summers in the
arctic sea could well arrive by 2030, with troubling implications for accelerated albedo feedback and possibly disruptive changes in the jet stream.
Since IPCC (2001) the cryosphere has undergone significant changes, such as the substantial retreat of
arctic sea
ice, especially in
summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in spring; the earlier breakup of river and lake
ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic
ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast, indicating increased basal melting due to increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the
ice shelves.
Even with a cold winter and cool
summer,
arctic ice STILL declined to a new record low.
If we are to lend credence to Recovery mechanisms of
Arctic summer sea
ice, by Tietsche et al, shouldn't the
arctic have «recovered» after 2007?
An
ice - free
arctic in the
summer won't get rid of the need for
ice - breakers in fall, winter, and spring.
I think what Alastair is alluding to is the fact that, say by 2050 when the
arctic ocean will conceivably be
ice - free in the
summer, the atmosphere will have a much higher relative humidity than it has currently because of the open air = water interface, so this will have a magnifying effect beyond just the feedback from increased CO2.
eg after a decade of no more MYI and several months a year in
summer / fall of almost no
arctic sea
ice.
I am very well aware and have previously blogged that there are multiple factors that determine the degree of
ice lost any given year — but the literature is clear that even in 2007, global warming played «a large part» (see «What drove the dramatic retreat of
arctic sea
ice during
summer 2007?
If some suitably huge area of the
arctic is totally free of
ice this
summer, could it then be claimed with confidence that this was the first time such a large region was free of
ice in «x» years, where x is some largeish number like 50,000 or 100,000?
Lower Atmosphere is warming, oceans upper layers are warming,
arctic summer sea
ice is disappearing, WAIS and Greenland are both losing mass annually and the majority of the earths glaciers are losing mass too.
-- The Minimum Sea
Ice Extent in the arctic was lower in 1990 than in 2006 — ie the arctic ice summer (September) minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16 yea
Ice Extent in the
arctic was lower in 1990 than in 2006 — ie the
arctic ice summer (September) minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16 yea
ice summer (September) minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16 years.
The
arctic will be
ice free in
summer within 5 - 6 years, progressing rapidly to all the remaining 9 months of the year as the
arctic ocean continues to warm.
If, as seems likely, the
arctic sea
ice loss worsens in coming
summers, we will get rain in increasing amounts on increasingly large areas of Greenland.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, M. Steele, and A. Schweiger (2008), What drove the dramatic retreat of
arctic sea
ice during
summer 2007?
as you can see both show no death spiral, nor is the
arctic going to be
ice free this
summer as opined back in 2007 by some of their ilk
Tagged annual
summer minimum,
arctic sea
ice, Beaufort Sea, body condition, Cherry, Chukchi, declining sea
ice, Eastern Beaufort, good news, heavy sea
ice, Hudson Bay,
ice - free
Arctic, litter size, loss of
summer ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode, sea
ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling,
summer ice minimum,
summer sea
ice, thick spring
ice
My question still stands: why was there a large
arctic sea
ice melt in 2008 and 2009 and not in 1998, given that 1998, for whatever reason, was a year of high
summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere?
The latest movie movie (5) shows the rapid retreat of
arctic sea
ice in
summer 2007 and 2008.
The second movie (2) illustrates the shrinking of
arctic summer (September) sea
ice, while the third movie (3) shows the variability of winter (March) sea
ice.
Tagged adaptation,
Arctic,
arctic seals, biological responses, climate change, climate extremes, Cronin, evolution, facts, genetics, glacial, he,
ice - free
summer, information, interglacial, LGM, marine mammals, paleoclimate, polar bear, resilience, sea
ice, USGS, walrus
we are talking about several hundred years with an
ice free
summer arctic.
And remember, the satellite data are one small part of a vast amount of data that overwhelmingly show our planet is warming up: retreating glaciers, huge amounts of
ice melting at both poles, the «death spiral» of
arctic ice every year at the
summer minimum over time, earlier annual starts of warm weather and later starts of cold weather, warming oceans, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, more extreme weather, changing weather patterns overall, earlier snow melts, and lower snow cover in the spring...
The Sea
Ice Outlook provides a forum for researchers to contribute their understanding of the state of arctic sea ice and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to arctic summer sea ice mini
Ice Outlook provides a forum for researchers to contribute their understanding of the state of
arctic sea
ice and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to arctic summer sea ice mini
ice and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to
arctic summer sea
ice mini
ice minima.
Lower
ice concentrations in 2011 relative to 2007 in late May indicate increased sensitivity of the
arctic ice cover to atmospheric dynamical forcing, with implications for
ice transport during
summer.
Polar bears,
arctic summer sea
ice, regional droughts and floods, coral bleaching, hurricanes, alpine glaciers, malaria, etc., all depend not on GATA but on a huge number of regional variables including temperature, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, and direction and magnitude of wind and the state of the ocean.
Actually the argument makes more sense applied to the
arctic sea
ice — both in winter and
summer, since it is at a much higher average latitude and therefore affects albedo much less.
If the
summer ice is downward trending in the
arctic, other
ice must be compensating for it right, or the net would be downward????
What kind of odds would you give me that 2013
summer arctic sea
ice will be lower than 2012?
Until the
ice / snow melts in the
summer the
arctic basically receives no net solar radiation.
A sea
ice free
summer arctic within 30 years: an update from CMIP5 models.
In short, 2008's
summer arctic ice extent observation is not a wheel off the GW bandwagon — it is one more nail in the coffin of denialism.
Scientifically, the Sea
Ice Outlook provides a focus for researchers to evaluate their understanding of the state of arctic sea ice, and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to arctic summer sea ice mini
Ice Outlook provides a focus for researchers to evaluate their understanding of the state of
arctic sea
ice, and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to arctic summer sea ice mini
ice, and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to
arctic summer sea
ice mini
ice minima.
The Sea
Ice Outlook provides a forum for researchers to evaluate their understanding of the state of arctic sea ice and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to arctic summer sea ice mini
Ice Outlook provides a forum for researchers to evaluate their understanding of the state of
arctic sea
ice and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to arctic summer sea ice mini
ice and for the community to jointly assess a range of factors that contribute to
arctic summer sea
ice mini
ice minima.
In years such as 2008, initial sea
ice conditions at the end of spring may have more of an influence on a September
arctic sea
ice extent Outlook than a forecast of
summer wind fields, which dominated the
ice situation in 2007.
All of this will be over by 2015, when the records of 2010 and 1998 will have been obliterated by increased solar activity, ENSO and decreased albedo as we go into virtually
ice free
arctic summers, oh and increased GHG concentrations of course.
Information about future
summer arctic sea
ice conditions based on 2008 data is inconclusive.
Information about future
summer arctic sea
ice conditions based on 2008 data is equivocal.
I was wondering if anyone has studied the effects of all the hundreds of ships and
ice breakers that go to the
arctic (much fewer in the Antarctic) to study it each spring /
summer and make documentaries like the green peace one above.
If it was supposed to melt all the polar
ice why is it that even during
summer months the
arctic ocean has been unnavigatable the past 2 yrs?
Zhakarov's model is conceptually simple: during periods of high precipitation when winter
ice forms readily,
summer ice cover increases, the atmosphere cools, the
arctic front together with its associated rain belt shifts south so that freshwater input to the
Arctic Ocean decreases, and winter
ice cover is thicker, has a deeper draft, and so survives better in
summer.
It emphasises that there is a strong internal relationship between the formation, stability and extent of sea ‐
ice and the structure of the upper layer of the
Arctic ocean: it is the relative area and depth of low - salinity
arctic water above the halocline that are paramount to
ice formation and its
summer survival.
And, once the
summer season is passed, the ever - colder
Arctic air masses remove even more heat from the under -
ice water up through the sea
ice by conduction into the -25 deg
arctic air.
In addition the AMO is even stronger in the
summer period which helps explain that the
arctic ice is losing as much as it is during the
summer.
Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average
arctic sea
ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3] % per decade, with larger decreases in
summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8] % per decade.