Fees for taking loans
are nominal as opposed to the considerable closing costs that can accrue from obtaining mortgages and equity lines of credit or other bank funded loans.
Not exact matches
It
's less expensive than buying separate policies, and insurers usually throw in other coverage, such
as business interruption (see below), for a
nominal cost.
In many cases, acceleration should lower their costs,
as nominal interest rates will likely
be higher two years from now than they
are today, and idle construction crews in Alberta
are relatively abundant.
Finally,
as I have noted a number of times before, my biggest fear about the next recession
is that it leads to actual wage deflation (
nominal as well
as real):
«
As a tax cut gets closer to passage (and assuming it
is passed), the potential tailwind to earnings and
nominal growth
is likely to drive incremental fund flows into US equities,» Parker said.
If real GDP
were to increase at 10.3 % instead of 2.5 % in 2015, then the government should receive, at a minimum, an extra $ 6.6 billion in tax revenue thanks to economic growth (this calculation assumes that
nominal GDP grows at the same proportion
as real GDP; it
is more likely that
nominal GDP would rise even higher
as such quick economic growth would
be inflationary, pushing that $ 6.6 billion figure even higher).
At Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) we take a more demanding approach, defining investing
as the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power — after taxes have
been paid on
nominal gains — in the future.
Growth in several tax revenue sources, such
as volume - based fuel and gasoline taxes,
is more closely aligned to the real economy (that
is, real GDP) than the
nominal economy.
The decline in
nominal GDP
is about twice
as large over the medium term than that used in the Government's latest Update.
As a result, compared to the March 2012 Budget planning assumption, the level of
nominal GDP
is $ 9 billion lower in 2012 — this consists of a «risk adjustment factor» of $ 7 billion and the difference between the change in the private sector average forecast of $ 22 billion less the March 2012 Budget «risk adjustment factor» of $ 20 billion.
Unfortunately, budget forecasts do not provide a breakdown of the various components of
nominal GDP, such
as wages and salaries, corporate profits, interest income, etc., so it
is difficult to properly assess the impact of changes in the economic forecast to changes in the major components of budgetary revenues.
I use the term «forecast» somewhat loosely, since these
are conditioned on a range of assumptions, such
as a fixed
nominal exchange rate and a particular path for the cash rate, and hence could better
be described
as «projections».
The worldwide
nominal value — also known
as the notional or «face» value — of derivatives tripled in the five years leading up to the recession, at which time it
was around $ 600 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Finally, while there
is certainly a risk that bonds deliver lousy returns going forward, I view the chances of significant
nominal drawdowns
as pretty far down the list of concerns, regardless of what the Fed does.
Phaseouts that
are not adjusted for inflation affect more taxpayers over time,
as inflation raises
nominal incomes and thus lifts more taxpayers above the phaseout thresholds.
As long as this government debt is rolled over continuously at non-repressed interest rates, which will be low as nominal GDP growth drops, China can rebalance the economy without a collapse in growt
As long
as this government debt is rolled over continuously at non-repressed interest rates, which will be low as nominal GDP growth drops, China can rebalance the economy without a collapse in growt
as this government debt
is rolled over continuously at non-repressed interest rates, which will
be low
as nominal GDP growth drops, China can rebalance the economy without a collapse in growt
as nominal GDP growth drops, China can rebalance the economy without a collapse in growth.
Even
as the ten - year yield soared to 15 % in 1981, the
nominal drawdown
was just 16 %.
There
are so many reasons why this
is wrong (to list just the most obvious, poor countries have much lower debt thresholds than rich countries, Japanese debt can not possibly
be dismissed
as not
being a problem, and because it
is almost impossible to find an economist who understands the relationship between
nominal interest rates and implicit amortization, Japanese government debt has probably only
been manageable to date because GDP growth close to zero has permitted interest rates close to zero) and yet inane comparisons between China's debt burden and Japan's debt burden
are made all the time.
This willingness to let inflation «run hot» means even
as nominal rates rise, real rates — that
is, the
nominal interest rate minus inflation —
are headed into negative territory.
Debt, in this case, must
be rising faster than debt servicing capacity, in which case Beijing's true debt level
is not the
nominal debt level but rather the
nominal debt level plus estimates of contingent liabilities likely to rise
as a consequence of wasted investment.
Chair Yellen has consistently maintained that
as long
as nominal wages grow no faster than the Fed's inflation target of 2 percent plus productivity growth, which
is running at (a truly yucky) 1 percent these days, wages can grow 3 percent without generating inflationary pressures.
Different wage series show different trends, but if you mash them together,
as is my wont, you find that the tightening job market has, in fact, given workers a bit more bargaining clout and
nominal wage growth basically moved up from 2 to 2.5 percent.
In September 2013, the Company entered into a common stock purchase agreement with an affiliate of AT&T covering the sale and issuance of 780,539 shares of the Company's stock for a
nominal amount of consideration (AT&T
is listed
as Customer E in Note 2).
While there
are some signs of recognition such
as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use of the term secular stagnation in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for global coordination and greater use of fiscal policy, and Japan's indicated interest in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate
nominal GDP growth
is likely to
be the primary macroeconomic policy challenge for the next decade.
The way this
is done
is by holding
nominal spending constant: its share of GDP declines
as GDP increases:
These include the problem of public communication, where the public
is likely to
be more understanding of inflation than the more nebulous concept of
nominal growth,
as well
as the problem that
nominal income
is often subject to sizeable revision by the statistical agency.
I think we will get some version of the so - called penny plan to reduce spending
as well (penny plan = hold flat
nominal discretionary spending, or reduce it or 1 % each year until the budget
is balanced).
This does appear overly optimistic,
as nominal gross domestic product (GDP)-- adjusted for the risk adjustment factor -
is only expected to increase by only 3.3 %.
As a result, the average of the private sector economists» forecast for
nominal GDP has
been adjusted downwards by $ 20 billion per year, identical to what
was done in the November 2012 Update.
As you can see, there
was nominal growth for both brick / mortar and online retailers.
These three categories
are responsible for 83 percent of
nominal spending growth over the next decade and 150 percent of spending growth
as a share of GDP (with other budget categories shrinking).
As you can see, since 1994 the growth in nominal retail sales on a year over year basis has been in a downtrend, while the level of consumer credit outstanding as been in a steady uptren
As you can see, since 1994 the growth in
nominal retail sales on a year over year basis has
been in a downtrend, while the level of consumer credit outstanding
as been in a steady uptren
as been in a steady uptrend.
Everyone agreed that debt in China
is still growing far too quickly relative to the country's debt - servicing capacity, but the pace of credit growth seems to have declined in 2017, even
as real GDP growth held steady and, more importantly,
nominal GDP growth increased.
Even
as transfer payments continued to grow with GDP,
nominal direct program expenditures — mainly spending on public - service wages — have either declined or
been held constant.
Here
are two overlays — one with the
nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which
is usually just referred to
as the CPI).
While the Budget Stabilization Fund serves
as Illinois»
nominal «rainy day» reserve, sufficient funds have yet to
be allocated.
In contrast, medium - term inflation expectations implied by financial market prices, which
are calculated
as the difference between
nominal and indexed bond yields, have
been broadly stable at around 2.6 per cent over the past nine months.
«
Nominal EERs
are calculated
as geometric weighted averages of bilateral exchange rates.
BIS says: «
Nominal EERs
are calculated
as geometric weighted averages of bilateral exchange rates.
Instead,
as coupons and maturity payments
are linked to inflation, index - linked gilt prices
are instead driven much more by changes to inflation expectations, and also the complex interaction between
nominal interest rates and those inflation expectations (real interest rates).
In his article «The Age of Secular Stagnation,» Larry Summers argued that excess of saving over investment
is acting
as a drag on demand to weigh on growth and inflation, and current monetary stimulus should
be expanded to accelerate investments and pull demand forward, such
as raising the inflation target or to conduct
nominal GDP targeting.
Chart 5 shows just how important US versus Canadian
nominal yields
are as a driver of the currency.
As nominal GDP
is the underlying tax base for budgetary revenues, this would suggest a marginal improvement in the fiscal forecast throughout the entire period, all other things remaining equal.
As a result, the average of the private sector economists» forecasts for
nominal GDP has
been adjusted downwards by $ 20 billion per year.
@James — I think central banks
are backing away from negative *
nominal * rates, personally,
as I mention above.
Theoretically, the impact of higher
nominal rates and inflation on corporate earnings
is ambiguous
as multiple transmission channels can work in opposing directions.
So it
is surprising that the adjustments to
nominal GDP decline over the medium term rather than increase
as one would expect.
Our model indicates that going forward, long - term yields will likely
be subject to three upward pressures: (1) Our forecasted increase in inflation will boost
nominal GDP growth; (2)
As forward guidance
is replaced by a data - dependent monetary tightening, volatility in short rates will increase; and (3)
As the impact of QE on the Treasury market fades, long - term yields will trend back to their historical link with
nominal GDP growth.
The current valuation of the S&P 500
is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market
as well
as the median stock: (1) The P / E ratio; (2) the current P / E expansion cycle; (3) EV / Sales; (4) EV / EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow yield; (6) Price / Book
as well
as the ROE and P / B relationship; and compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7)
nominal 10 - year Treasury yields; and (8) real interest rates.
There
is no firm benchmark
as to what constitutes a «normal» relationship between credit growth and
nominal GDP growth.