Merit's Tryouts and Finals (i.e. pre-tests and post-tests)
are reliable measures of student knowledge and progress attained.
«While we all wish
that was a reliable measure of conservative, experience has taught that it's not,» Broun said in a Wednesday statement.
We also performed qRT - PCR to determine whether the retroviral OCT3 / 4 and KLF4 transgenes were silenced, which has been shown to
be a reliable measure for efficient reprogramming of somatic cells into pluripotency [29].
A major critique is that the HBT is not seen as
being a reliable measure due to a high error rate.
But
are they a reliable measure of students» real abilities and potential?
Second, test scores can
be reliable measures of educational achievement.
You say «To accomplish that, one would usually need more than a single measure (even if
that were a reliable measure).»
To accomplish that, one would usually need more than a single measure (even if
that were a reliable measure).
But another purpose that states built toward was that if they wanted to use PARCC as part of an accountability system, would
it be a reliable measure.
Instead, you start with a risk free rate in a currency where you believe that the government bond rate
is a reliable measure of the risk free rate (US Treasury Bond, German Euro Bond) and then add to this number the differential inflation rate between the US dollar and the local currency.
The S measurement
is a reliable measure that correlates well to the DLS score: it is a simple, rapid method for general practitioners to screen dogs for unaffected hip joints.
But that success
is no reliable measure for the depth and complexity of the work they are making, or equally for the work of all those artists who participated in the show.
Since our aim is not so much to produce a definitive analysis as to obtain some idea of the existence and magnitude of the effect, we will examine a variety of possibilities... we may plausibly expect... suggests that the area effect in Figs. 5a and 5b is likely to be underestimated... A potential problem here is that area may not
be a reliable measure of cumulus activity... Figs 5c and 5d suggest that a simple linear regression may not be entirely appropriate.»
Popular among employers, the CCAT
is a reliable measure of applicants» cognitive aptitude and various factors contributing to performance at work.
The study design is a little «convoluted,» says Dr. Gail Saltz, a New York City psychiatrist and frequent TODAY contributor, adding «I think it's reasonable to question if
this is a reliable measure.»
The DCQ appears to
be a reliable measure for assessing occupational stress in sewing machine operators.
Given the importance of body awareness to self - objectification research, and the mixed results obtained with various questionnaire measures, we suggest that there is scope for the use of a well - validated physiological method, which has proved to
be a reliable measure of body awareness in another area of psychology.
Both groups comprised families with children aged 3 — 16 years, as there
is no reliable measure of child behavioural difficulties for children less than 3 years.25
The PSAS, a 10 - item self - report instrument,
is a reliable measure (Cronbach's alpha = 0.81)[54] of pregnant women's worry regarding personal health, labor and delivery and baby care, with final scores ranging from 0 to 3.
Not exact matches
The lawsuit describes an employee ranking system that
is «not based on valid and
reliable performance
measures» and favors men and white or Asian employees.
In the interim, neither housing bears nor bulls would seem to
be in a position to make conclusive claims on how
reliable the
measures are.
They
are reliable, consistent and well - adjusted, and by all
measures the majority have good lives.
As a result, there
are no truly
reliable measures of future growth.
Among the recurring features of speculative episodes across history
is the appearance of «new era» arguments to justify the elevated prices, coupled with arguments that historically
reliable measures no longer apply.
Moderate interest rates
were associated with a whole range of subsequent returns over the following decade, and we know that those outcomes
were 90 % correlated with the level of valuations at the beginning of those periods (on
reliable measures such as market cap / GDP, price / revenue, Tobin's Q, the margin - adjusted Shiller P / E, and others we've presented over time - see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle).
The same
is likely to
be the case in the present instance, and on historically
reliable measures, that shift has already occurred.
Earnings and earnings growth rates
are the least
reliable of all fundamental
measures here, and should not form the basis for evaluating stocks.
Eventually, the final refuge of speculation
is to abandon historically
reliable measures wholesale, resting faith instead on the advent of some new era in which the old rules simply don't apply.
Put simply, there
's no evidence to suggest that historically
reliable valuation
measures have somehow become irrelevant.
The most
reliable measures we identify in market cycles across history
are consistent with the expectation of near zero total returns in the S&P 500 Index over the coming decade, and the likelihood that the market will fall by half over the completion of the current cycle.
There will always
be conceptual issues with any single valuation
measure, so the best we can do
is evaluate valuations from the standpoint of multiple historically
reliable approaches.
For our part, we don't follow the Coppock indicator per se, but the broad range of technical
measures we follow include our own variant that
is associated with stronger and more
reliable subsequent returns (this variant has not even gone to negative levels yet, much less turned favorable).
As a result, starting valuations, on historically
reliable measures,
are 90 % correlated with actual subsequent 10 - year total market returns.
Historically, we find that the least
reliable market valuation
measures are the Fed Model, the raw price / earnings ratio, and the forward operating P / E.
We spend lots of time explaining how GAAP earnings
are not
reliable measures of corporate profits, and non-GAAP earnings
are worse.
In any event, the problem for investors
is that whatever increment we could possibly observe in GDP growth pales in comparison to the fact that the most historically
reliable market valuation
measures are far more than double their historical norms.
Generally the higher the
R - squared
measure, the more
reliable the beta measurement will
be.
The economic gains and market returns that emerged during the Reagan Administration began from a starting point of 10.8 % unemployment, a current account surplus, and market valuations that - on the most historically
reliable measures -
were less than one - quarter of present levels.
With the S&P 500 within about 8 % of its highest level in history, with historically
reliable valuation
measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic
measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has
been observed in only about 9 % of history.
Historical norms for the most
reliable measures are less than half of present levels.
We've long argued, and continue to assert, that the most historically
reliable measures of market valuation
are far beyond double their historical norms.
The essential thing to understand about valuations
is that while they
are highly
reliable measures of prospective long - term market returns (particularly over 10 - 12 year horizons), and of potential downside risk over the completion of any market cycle, valuations
are also nearly useless over shorter segments of the market cycle.
Historically -
reliable valuation
measures are remarkably useful in projecting long - term and full - cycle market outcomes, but the behavior of the market over shorter segments of the market cycle
is driven by the psychological inclination of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.
With the most historically
reliable valuation
measures about 2.8 times their historical norms, these extreme starting valuations
are worth considering here.
These
measures include the S&P 500 price / revenue ratio, the Margin - Adjusted CAPE (our more
reliable variant of Robert Shiller's cyclically - adjusted P / E), and MarketCap / GVA — the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to corporate gross value - added, including estimated foreign revenues — which
is easily the most
reliable valuation
measure we've ever created or tested, among scores of alternatives.
This does not, for even a moment, change the fact that the most
reliable measures of valuation
are now an average of 3.0 times their historical norms.
Although Wall Street continues to assert that valuations
are «reasonable given the level of interest rates,» keep in mind that the most
reliable measures of valuation imply negative 10 - 12 year total returns for the S&P 500.
The most
reliable measures of individual stock valuation we've found
are based on formal discounted cash flow considerations, but among publicly - available
measures we've evaluated, price / revenue ratios
are better correlated with actual subsequent returns than price / earnings ratios (though normalized profit margins and other factors
are obviously necessary to make cross-sectional comparisons).
Recent cycles provide no evidence of deterioration in the relationship between
reliable valuation
measures (particularly those that aren't highly sensitive to fluctuations in profit margins) and actual subsequent market returns.
Again, the problem
is that market valuations
are presently more than double those norms on the most historically
reliable measures.