Sentences with phrase «around estimated warming»

Figure 1 Tipping points associated with various degrees of warming, and probability distribution around estimated warming already committed to (2.4 °C)

Not exact matches

The researchers found that on windy nights it wasn't possible to measure the cooling effects of the green spaces beyond their boundaries as there was too much turbulent mixing of the air; but on calm warm nights they estimate that a network of green spaces of around 3 - 5 hectares each situated 100 - 150 m apart would provide comprehensive cooling for a city with a climate and characteristics similar to London.

Previous estimates suggested that peak temperatures during the warmest interglacial periods — which occurred at around 125,000, 240,000 and 340,000 years ago — were about three degrees higher than they are today.

It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty - first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2).

Indeed, if one accepts a very liberal risk level of 50 % for mean global warming of 2 °C (the guiderail widely adopted) since the start of the industrial age, then under midrange IPCC climate sensitivity estimates, then we have around 30 years before the risk level is exceeded.

The Copenhagen Diagnosis authors used IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections as well as post-AR4 analysis to estimate that emissions reductions of around 40 % from industrial nations are needed to make it likely to keep global warming below 2 °C.

«The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs,» said Ms. Figueres.

What I'm trying to get at is some simplistic estimate of the water vapour feedback that results from an enhanced CO2 - induced warming of say 1.1 oC from the CO2 RF of around 4 Wm - 2.

Excerpts:... The latest estimates, including a study published last week in the journal Nature, foresee a probable warming of somewhere around 5 degrees should the concentration of carbon dioxide reach twice the 280 - parts - per - million figure...

But aren't these way too low, since LOTI shows we are — as of 2017 — already around 0.95 C warmer than the 1951 - 1980 average, and there is more warming «in the pipeline» because of the time lag, and another (estimated) 0.5 C warming when the anthropogenic aerosols dimming effect is removed?

A recent review article in Nature on this method showed «a warming around 2.2 to 4.8 °C per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates».

``... most [committed global warming estimates with present (around 410ppm CO2, etc) constant concentrations] are around 0.5 - 1ºC...»

However even the moderate scenarios which have eventual stabilisation give more warming than 0.8 C. Even in the extremely unlikely event that there is no further growth in emissions, the current planetary energy imbalance (estimated to be almost 1W / m2)(due to the ocean thermal inertia) implies that there is around 0.5 C extra warming already in the pipeline that will be realised over the next 20 to 30 years.

Losses accelerate with greater warming (limited evidence, high agreement), but few quantitative estimates have been completed for additional warming around 3 °C or above.

The uncertainty range around the estimate of 3.9 °C from current confirmed proposals means warming could be significantly higher, but there is essentially no chance of limiting warming to the 2 °C target.

Early 20th century warming was around.4 oC in three decades The global average temperature experienced an increase of +0.57 C between 1910 and 1944: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual Early 20th century was also about half anthropogenic I'm very curious about where you get this estimate from.

Clouds are estimated to reflect around 14 % of the incoming SW radiation, resulting in cooling estimated to be 48 W / m ^ 2, while a doubling of CO2 theoretically results in GH warming of around 3.7 W / m ^ 2.

Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century warming is about half of the warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer of heat to the deeper ocean (where changes in heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..

Corrections were made to the record, and before long the satellite record showed the warming of the lower atmosphere happening at a similar rate to that estimated from the thermometers around the globe.

That may mean that some of the highest estimates of future temperature rises, of more than 6C within several decades, are less likely, but it does not let the world off the hook — warming of more than 2C is still highly likely on current high emissions trends, and that would cause severe consequences around the world.

If a substantial fraction of all the weather stations from around the world have been affected by urbanization bias, then this could have introduced an artificial warming trend into the «global temperature trend» estimates.

With the new ECS estimate, the absolute maximum AGW impact we could ever theoretically see from human CO2 is around 2.4 C warming above today, when all fossil fuels are 100 % used up.

As estimated from this study, we found a conservative estimate of a warm bias resulting from measuring the temperature near the ground at just one level of around 0.21 °C per decade (with the nighttime minimum temperature contributing a large part of this bias).

Well, now, IF IPCC concedes - that ECS is very likely 1.6 - 1.7 C - that expected warming by 2100 is projected to be around 1C rather than 2 - 6C, as previously estimated)- that the model - predicted changes in «severe weather» from AR4 are no longer likely to occur, as a result.

Based on GRACE satellite gravity estimates (illustrated in the graph below on the left) and hydrographic measurements (graph on right), Greenland's lost ice has correlated best with the pulses of warm Atlantic water that entered into the Irminger Current that flows to the west around Greenland, delivering relatively warm water to the base of Greenland's marine terminating glaciers.

Several solar studies estimate that around half of the past warming can be attributed to the high level of solar activity in the second half of the 20th century (Lean curve).

Consistent with the aforementioned sea level rise acceleration, a number of articles have projected global sea level rise of around 1m or more by 2100, based on past estimates of sea level rise (in response to warming) and based on melting of land ice (with thermal expansion):

At the latest ECS estimates of around 1.5 °C, this could lead to 2 °C warming; at the old IPCC estimate of around 3 °C, this could lead to 4 °C warming — both as an asymptotic maximum ever attainable if and when all fossil fuels are 100 % used up some 200 - 300 years from now.

Warming since the start of the industrial era in the 18th century is estimated to be around 1.1 °C.

Now if you can figure out how much of the warming is due to CO2 and how much is due to longer term natural ocean «sloshing» around, then you can come up with an educated estimate of impact due to CO2.

Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Current Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457

The Carnegie Institution estimates that around $ 5 billion in crop losses per year are due to global warming.

Since ARGO measurements started in 2003 the first estimate in 2008 showed slight upper ocean cooling; the corrected and extended estimate shows around 2 x10 ^ 22 Joules warming = around 0.02 C (0 - 700m)

In fact, based on past temperature / CO2 changes since 1850 and the estimated total carbon contained in all possible fossil fuel resources on Earth, the total human - induced warming we could envision (when this resource is all used up) is around 2.2 degrees C above today's temperature.

One model estimates that global warming will become a net cost around the year 2075.

A study published in the journal Nature estimated 21 percent of Africa's oil reserves and 33 percent of gas reserves would need to remain in the ground if the world is going to limit warming to an agreed target of around 1.5 degrees.

The Earth's average surface temperature is estimated to have warmed 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit (0.7 degrees Celsius) since humans accelerated greenhouse gas emissions around the time of the Industrial Revolution.

The fresh research has provided estimates that if only carbon dioxide emissions are considered then the total carbon dioxide budget that would keep warming below two degrees would be around 5000 gigatonnes.

Stern actually wrote: «Ecosystems will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, with one study estimating that around 15 — 40 % of species face extinction with 2 °C of warming.»

But even taking these into account, there is no doubt that «going nuclear» would result in a slower increase in CO2 concentrations, maybe by as much as 80 ppmv by 2100, which translates into averted warming of around 0.6 C at the arguably exaggerated IPCC AR4 2xCO2 ECS of 3.2 C (or half this amount at the more recent estimates for ECS).

Christiana Figueres quote: «The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs.»

For earlier times, we adopt Greenland temperature estimated as follows (33): For the period 128,700 B.P. to 340,000 B.P., this temperature was derived from a proxy based on Antarctic ice core methane data using the relation T = − 51.5 + 0.0802 [CH4 (ppb)-RSB- from a linear regression of Greenland temperature estimates on Antarctic methane for the period 150 B.P. to 122,400 B.P.. For the remaining period of 122,400 B.P. to 128,700 B.P., data from a variety of climate archives indicate that Greenland warming lags that of Antarctica, with rapid warming commencing around 128.5 ky B.P. in the northern North Atlantic and reaching full interglacial levels by about 127 ky B.P. (51).

For a) you say «If we accept the estimate of several solar studies that 50 % of the past warming (instead of 7 %) was caused by the sun, we end up with a «maximum - ever - possible» warming of around 1C.»

In other words, the best estimate according to AR5 is around 100 % of the observed warming being human induced.

The data and the statistical analysis does not provide the evidence that the so called «pause», a time period with a lower trend estimate than the longer - term trend estimate, was more than just a short - term fluctuation around the median warming trend, mostly due to short - term unforced internal variability in the Earth system (and some contribution from decreasing solar activity and increased reflecting aerosols in the atmosphere, counteracting the increased greenhose gas forcing to some degree), like the «acceleration» over the 16 - year period from 1992 to 2007 (e.g., UAH trend: 0.296 + / - 0.213 (2 sigma) deg.

If we accept the estimate of several solar studies that 50 % of the past warming (instead of 7 %) was caused by the sun, we end up with a «maximum - ever - possible» warming of around 1C.

According to IPCC estimates, this would cause warming of around 4C.

As can be seen, the «constant RH assumption» exaggerates the actually observed moisture increase with warming by a factor of around 10:1 (and hence the model - based water vapor feedback estimates).

Climate models estimate that around the world, average VPD in warm seasons could rise as much as 3.6 percent each decade, according to the study.

The International Energy Agency recently estimated that even if you take every nation's current climate pledges seriously, we're still on pace for around 3 °C of warming by 2100 — well above the 2 °C limit that most countries have set as a goal.