Harold Varmus: I think the way to think about this is, is
as a probability argument.
Not exact matches
Appealing to confirmation theory and employing Bayes's Theorem of
Probability Calculus, he has developed a cumulative - case
argument for God's existence that he claims inductively justifies the existence of God
as the best explanation for a wide variety of well - known data.
One may indeed be entirely without them; probably more than one of you here present is without them in any marked degree; but if you do have them, and have them at all strongly, the
probability is that you can not help regarding them
as genuine perceptions of truth,
as revelations of a kind of reality which no adverse
argument, however unanswerable by you in words, can expel from your belief.
What the
argument by
probability does is to reflect on the «fine - tunedness» of a universe in which life can exist, reflects on the chance of life occurring through purely random events, and concludes that the chance of life coming into existence through purely random forces of nature is so infinitesimally small
as to be almost non-existent.
On the balance of
probabilities alone, the weight of evidence of climate change
as being real (Person B) far out - weighs the
argument / evidence put forth by person A.
Hansen's
argument is that without global warming, the
probability of the Moscow and Texas and Oklahoma heat waves being so hot is so small, that it's safe to say that global warming was a contributing factor - that they would not have been
as blisteringly hot in the absence of global warming.
«Lindzen picks one value at the outer edge of the
probability distribution function and builds his entire
argument on that (rather improbable) value
as if it's highly certain» Okay, I see where you're coming from.
The situation
as I see it is opposite: Mainstream science acknowledges there is a large uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing, whereas Lindzen picks onevalue at the outer edge of the
probability distribution function and builds his entire
argument on that (rather improbable) value
as if it's highly certain: His
argument is implicitly built on high confidence / certainty that aerosol forcing is very low.
Your opponent will always be trying to pick holes in your
argument to tip the balance of
probabilities in their favour, so it is important that the expert witnesses testify regarding their expertise and do not provide an opinion that could be classed
as conjecture.