Not exact matches
The scientists expect further warming in the Arctic
as levels of greenhouse gases will continue to increase and
aerosol particle emissions will likely decrease to combat air pollution in different parts of the world.
Toxins and nicotine have been measured in that
aerosol, such
as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acetic acid and other toxins emitted into the air, though at lower
levels compared to conventional cigarette emissions.
«Another potential application is biodefense, where eCAPs may be used
as a rapid postexposure
aerosol treatment in individuals after exposure to aerosolized pathogens, where the goal of immediate treatment would be to rapidly reduce bacterial dose from a lethal to a nonlethal or subclinical
level,» says Montelaro.
During ISDAC, they collected an unprecedented
level of data and detailed observations on Arctic clouds and
aerosols, those tiny particles in the atmosphere that act
as seeds for cloud droplets and ice crystals.
does fit the temperature trend to an acceptable
level, if one should reduce the sensitivity for CO2 /
aerosols far enough... Current models also can reproduce other transitions (LGM - Holocene) with a reasonable accuracy, but this is mainly in periods where there is a huge overlap between temperature (
as initiator) and CO2 / CH4
levels (
as feedback).
Possible reasons include increased oceanic circulation leading to increased subduction of heat into the ocean, higher than normal
levels of stratospheric
aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone
levels used
as input to the models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly modeled cloud feedback effects.
Besides showing pretty views, EPIC provides scientists with metrics on climate such
as cloud height, ultraviolet reflectivity, or ozone and
aerosol levels.
There is a significant amount of
aerosol formation taking place with no ionization («background
levels»), and when the sample air in the experiment was replaced, this caused a large jump (seen
as a shift along the vertical axis) in the formation rate (the different colours in the figure above).
This switch from a «global dimming» trend to a «brightening» trend happened just
as global
aerosol levels started to decline.
All it demonstrates is that there is more than one causal factor,
as is well known, with
aerosols (from fossil fuels and volcanoes), land - use changes (through affecting CH$ and CO2
levels and albedo) and solar irradiance all playing a role.
Of course, this assumes a few things, such
as that
levels of other GHGs, such
as methane, are returned to their pre-industrial
levels, or continue to be counter-balanced by
aerosol forcings.
In this case, the vast preponderance of evidence and theory (such
as long established basic physics) is on the side of AGW, so there would have to be a serious paradigm shift based on some new physics, a cooling trend (with increasing GHG
levels and decreasing
aerosol effect), and that they had failed to detect the extreme increase in solar irradiance to dislodge AGW theory.
We will now be able to measure and track Sun - induced space weather
as well
as global climactic trends in ozone
levels,
aerosols, vegetation, volcanic ash, and Earth reflectivity, all in high resolution; just the kind of data our civilization needs to make informed cultural, political, and scientific decisions that affect our future.
In addition, many non-sulfur-based biogenic materials of the terrestrial environment play major roles
as water - and ice - nucleating
aerosols; and the airborne presence of these materials should also be enhanced by rising
levels of atmospheric CO2.
does fit the temperature trend to an acceptable
level, if one should reduce the sensitivity for CO2 /
aerosols far enough... Current models also can reproduce other transitions (LGM - Holocene) with a reasonable accuracy, but this is mainly in periods where there is a huge overlap between temperature (
as initiator) and CO2 / CH4
levels (
as feedback).
Researchers say
levels of human - made
aerosols are expected to decline during the 21st century
as countries begin adopting cleaner methods of power generation.
While SO2 emissions may have had some small role in that period, they can't have a role in the current standstill,
as the increase of emissions in SE Asia is compensated by the decrease in emissions in the Western world, thus there is hardly any increase in cooling
aerosols while CO2
levels are going up at record speed and temperatures are stalled.
If analysis of historical data on GHG rise and net effects of
aerosols establishes beta = 0.5, then TCR = 1.2 C. But, beta is uncertain and might be
as low
as 0.4, in which case TCR = 1.3 C. But, TCR (1 + beta) = 1.8 C and only has uncertainty introduced by uncertainty in the historical GMST and CO2
level rise.
As the SO2
aerosols gradually settled out, temperatures rose to pre-eruption
levels because of the cleaner air.
Last,
aerosol level effects may well be exaggerated, just
as CO2's effect was:
aerosols were how the models cancelled out «CO2» effects at inconvenient times.
Estimating the actual optical properties of the ejecta is important,
as is the background
level of
aerosols from other sources (e.g. industrial).
AR5 (
as Nic Lewis regularly points out) concludes a most likely net
aerosol offset of -0.9 watt / M ^ 2, which is bizarrely inconsistent with the average
level of
aerosol offsets used by the AR5 climate model ensemble (much higher offsets in the models), and most consistent with a fairly low (< 2C per doubling) climate sensitivity to forcing.
During the 1950s and 1960s, average global temperatures
levelled off,
as increases in
aerosols from fossil fuels and other sources cooled the planet.
Some point to
aerosols (but that is not very plausible,
as that should give an increase since 1975 for Europe and in part for North America), but I have the impression that increased water vapour
levels are at the base of this change.
Aerosols are also essential for cloud formation in the troposphere: They act
as condensation nuclei which even in the presence of low
levels of water vapor do enable droplets to form.
The total direct
aerosol RF
as derived from models and observations is estimated to be — 0.5 [± 0.4] W m — 2, with a medium - low
level of scientific understanding.
The latter effect acts to reduce CO2 sensitivity by increasing the
aerosol - sensitive SW tau, increasing both cloud density and cover, decreasing upper tropospheric specific humidity and INCREASING SW albedo and will increasingly do so
as the atmospheric
level of CO2 rises!
The latter effect acts to reduce CO2 sensitivity by increasing the
aerosol - sensitive SW tau, increasing both cloud density and cover, decreasing upper tropospheric specific humidity and SW albedo and will increasingly do so
as the atmospheric
level of CO2 rises!
Instead of
aerosols being considered helpful in reducing temperatures, they should be recognised
as being extremely harmful, even more so than rising CO2
levels, and urgent steps should be taken to eliminate those with anthropogenic origins.
Combinations of satellite and surface - based observations allow us to determine trends in
aerosol levels as well
as cloud albedo effect.
Despite this, they list their
level of confidence of
aerosols and precursors
as High (Figure 2), but that only applies to anthropogenic sources.
It means an accumulation of things such
as climate changes, animal extinction threats, rising sea
levels, ocean acidity, less saline density in the ocean, glacial melting, and less carbon sinks (deforestation) or reversal of sinks to sources, which according to the article below is based upon
aerosols.
The estimated warming of 2.4 °C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration
levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such
as the cooling effect of
aerosols.
The
level of scientific understanding of radiative forcing is ranked by the AR4 (Table 2.11)
as high only for the long - lived greenhouse gases, but is ranked
as low for solar irradiance,
aerosol effects, stratospheric water vapor from CH4, and jet contrails.
But one thing all
aerosols have in common is that if you are going to balance the greenhouse effect due to increasing
levels of carbon dioxide, you must keep increasing the amount of
aerosols — which will then increase the negative effects associated with them — including diminished agricultural output and climatic side - effects —
as they will not evenly counteract the effects of increased carbon dioxide and its water vapor feedback due to evaporation.
This is a crucial point; in my opinion it is defeated by the decrease in temp from 1940 - 1976 and from 1995/8; but rather go down the
aerosol path again the PETM is of interest; the PETM is often put forward
as an example of CO2 / ghg forcing but temp increase preceded the increase in CO2; the temp recovery to pre-PETM
levels, given the 70 % increase in CO2 and sudden spike in temp of over 6C, was very quick [between 30 - 80k]; but the temp recovery happened while CO2
levels stayed high.
The space - time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal - to - noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas - plus -
aerosol fingerprint in the same way
as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work, the recent 30 - y trends (1966 — 1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5 % confidence
level.