Although the bullish bias of the past two months has presented some great opportunities for momentum swing traders, no bull market moves straight up without eventually undergoing substantial corrections along the way (just as bear markets don't fall straight down for too long without large, counter-trend bounces).
Not exact matches
Or: We're business - like, but not
boring, and we don't use gobbledygook phrases such
as market - leading and world - class.
Long
bear markets, defined
as a drop of 20 percent or more in stock prices over the course of months,
do tend to correlate with recessions.
As such, I also don't see a
bear market starting during the first half of 2016.
In fact, mutual fund company Hussman Funds, which analyzed events that precipitated the financial crisis, which began in 2007, in this blog post, notes that
bear markets that induce recessions are usually twice
as long
as those that don't produce recessions.
As Shelby Cullom Davis is famous for saying, however: «You make most of your money in a
bear market, you just don't know it.»
Retirees should pray for the best case so
as to avoid seeing a
bear market hurt they portfolio when they don't have the savings to take advantage.
This way, if a
bear market occurs, you have a year of cash becoming available at the maturity date so that you
do not have to sell stocks, and in a bull
market you can buy new bonds
as the ones you own mature, and you thereby benefit from the higher interest rates that high quality bonds give versus cash or CDs.
[01:10] Introduction [02:45] James welcomes Tony to the podcast [03:35] Tony's leap year birthday [04:15] Unshakeable delivers the specific facts you need to know [04:45] What James learned from Unshakeable [05:25] Most people panic when the stock
market drops [05:45] Getting rid of your fear of investing [06:15] Last January was the worst opening, but it was a correction [06:45] You are losing money when you sell on corrections [06:55]
Bear markets come every 5 years on average [07:10] The greatest opportunity for a millennial [07:40] Waiting for corrections to invest [08:05] Warren Buffet's advice for investors [08:55] If you miss the top 10 trading days a year... [09:25] Three different investor scenarios over a 20 year period [10:40] The best trading days come after the worst [11:45] Investing in the current world [12:05] What Clinton and Bush think of the current situation [12:45] The office is far bigger than the occupant [13:35] Information helps reduce fear [14:25] James's story of the billionaire upset over another's wealth [14:45] What money really is [15:05] The story of Adolphe Merkle [16:05] The story of Chuck Feeney [16:55] The importance of the right mindset [17:15] What fuels Tony [19:15] Find something you care about more than yourself [20:25] Make your mission to surround yourself with the right people [21:25] Suffering made Tony hungry for more [23:25] By feeding his mind, Tony found strength [24:15] Great ideas don't interrupt you, you have to pursue them [25:05] Never - ending hunger is what matters [25:25] Richard Branson is the epitome of hunger and drive [25:40] Hunger is the common denominator [26:30] What you can
do starting right now [26:55] Success leaves clues [28:10] What it means to take massive action [28:30] Taking action commits you to following through [29:40] If you do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're doing [30:40] How does Tony ignite creativity in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for yo
do starting right now [26:55] Success leaves clues [28:10] What it means to take massive action [28:30] Taking action commits you to following through [29:40] If you
do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're doing [30:40] How does Tony ignite creativity in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for yo
do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're
doing [30:40] How
does Tony ignite creativity in his own life [32:00] «How is not
as important
as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for you?
Darin Kingston of d.light, whose profitable solar - powered LED lanterns simultaneously address poverty, education, air pollution / toxic fumes / health risks, energy savings, carbon footprint, and more Janine Benyus, biomimicry pioneer who finds models in the natural world for everything from extracting water from fog (
as a desert beetle
does) to construction materials (spider silk) to designing flood - resistant buildings by studying anthills in India's monsoon climate, and shows what's possible when you invite the planet to join your design thinking team Dean Cycon, whose coffee company has not only exclusively sold organic fairly traded gourmet coffee and cocoa beans since its founding in 1993, but has funded dozens of village - led community development projects in the lands where he sources his beans John Kremer, whose concept of exponential growth through «biological
marketing,» just
as a single kernel of corn grows into a plant
bearing thousands of new kernels, could completely change your business strategy Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute, who built a near - net - zero - energy luxury home back in 1983, and has developed a scientific, economically viable plan to get the entire economy off oil, coal, and nuclear and onto renewables — while keeping and even improving our high standard of living
Third and finally, the traditional story misses the real function of private banks, which is to solve an information problem in the purest Hayekian senses. That is, banks are or should be specialists in risk assessment and risk taking. They should know their client, understand the local
market and have their pulse on the broad economy. Arguably, if properly structured, they can and should
do this better than other entities such
as governments. In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and
bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this post.
As much as I think a bear market would be fun to trade, I do not wish it on anyon
As much
as I think a bear market would be fun to trade, I do not wish it on anyon
as I think a
bear market would be fun to trade, I
do not wish it on anyone.
Most interest rates aren't shown online:
As clean and usable as Santander's website is, it doesn't provide crucial information that many bank websites do, such as interest rates on the interest - bearing checking option, savings and money market accounts and CD
As clean and usable
as Santander's website is, it doesn't provide crucial information that many bank websites do, such as interest rates on the interest - bearing checking option, savings and money market accounts and CD
as Santander's website is, it doesn't provide crucial information that many bank websites
do, such
as interest rates on the interest - bearing checking option, savings and money market accounts and CD
as interest rates on the interest -
bearing checking option, savings and money
market accounts and CDs.
For now, we remain defensive, but we recognize the potential for a «
bear market rally» despite conditions that,
as yet,
do not provide enough evidence to warrant removing a significant portion of our hedges.
Therefore, the Dow / T - Bond Ratio peaks (
as it
did in the beginning of 2000 and 2008), which precisely marked the beginning of the respective
Bear Market in stocks.
But in
bear markets, my strategy is a combination of selling short former leadership stocks
as they break down (click here to see how it's
done) and buying ETFs with low to nill correlation to the equities
markets (such
as commodities, currencies, fixed - income, and international).
But in decades of research, I've still not found a reliable means to capture brief «
bear market rallies» that don't include falling yields
as a requirement.
The idea that we have seen the last
bear market in equities ever
does seem extremely far fetched, though few in the mainstream media want to admit that the US is facing huge debt burdens that will probably only grow
as time goes on.
I don't know if Friday, Oct. 10th will be heralded by historians
as the bottom of this
bear market, a day on which the Dow hit an intra-day low below 8,000, but I think it might be close.
It seems a lot of sectors are rolling over to a
bear market, but on index level you don't see
as much yet, since wonderful Amazon, Apple etc are holding up decently.
As an old mentor told me, it takes a lot of buying to create a bull
market; but for a
bear market to get started, people don't have to sell; they just have to stop buying.
Does intensity of public interest in a «
bear market» mean that the
bear is already here,
as implied by ZeroHedge commentary on Google Trends search intensity?
«Without branding all generals and statesmen
as murderers or thieves... a portrait of war makers and state makers
as coercive and self - seeking entrepreneurs
bears a far greater resemblance to the facts than
do its chief alternatives: the idea of a social contract, the idea of an open
market... the idea of a society whose shared norms and expectations call forth a certain kind of government.»
Malpass» creds are few: he's going for the halo effect from his stint in the Reagan administration and conveniently not discussing his August 2007 article in the WSJ («Don't panic about the credit
market») while he was chief global economist at
Bear Stearns, which was still selling mortgage - infected securities
as they were tanking.
She's charging «what the
market will
bear»
as any good capitalist would
do.
So
as to not appear out of touch or
boring,
do not overemphasize personality similarity in
marketing and branding efforts
as members will likely only value it to a moderate degree.
So
as to not appear out of touch or
boring,
do not overemphasize personality similarity in
marketing and branding efforts
as members will likely only value it to a moderate degree, despite its known function in long - term relationship success.
Owning a hybrid doesn't have to be all
boring as Fox
Marketing demonstrates by teaming up with Lexus and building this wickedly clean widebody Lexus CT200h.
However, for bonds to provide a similar level of return
as they
did during the last equity
bear market described above, yields would have to fall to approximately minus 2 %.
The
bear markets are not really a headwind
as they
did not reduce the realized returns.
History shows that just
as bull
markets give way to
bear markets, so
do bears morph into bulls, eventually pushing stock prices to higher levels.
I have been warning about this potential for years, its impact to investor's portfolios (most investors don't know what a bond
bear market is or how to deal with it) and just
as importantly the huge potential negative impact to pension funds here in the US and across the globe.
Q: With a big
bear market likely on the horizon,
does it make sense to put part of the portfolio in a fund that makes money
as the
market goes down?
Still, investors who
do so should make that decision explicitly, with an understanding of the implications of that choice —
as in «I am consciously choosing, here and now, to ignore the potential for the current
market cycle to be completed by a
bear market, either because I am willing to hold stocks regardless of their future course, or because I will adhere to some well - tested investment discipline that has been reliably capable of avoiding major losses.»
Under the pure DB model, employers
bear the investment risk while under a pure DC model, workers
bear the risk, just
as RRSP investors
do: when
markets are up, things are great; if not, then not so much.
Investors are inclined to
do the opposite,
as you can confirm with a glance at fund flows between equity and bond funds during bull and
bear market runs.
But don't despair, there is a means to protect yourself in the long run from the effects of a
bear market as well
as ensure your injection of capital into the
market when it is extremely close to the bottom.
Secular
bear markets come
as a result of speculative bubbles, and you don't purge a speculative bubble with one
bear market cycle.
I don't agree with the other comments
as markets generally spend more time in bull phase though
bear markets are more harsh but shorter in time.
It is made better if you separate secular bull
markets from secular
bear markets (
as does Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research).
As you can see, historical
bear markets don't usually start when real interest rates are this low.
Low - risk stocks
do better than stocks
as a whole because their return is only slightly lower in bull
markets and is much better than average in
bear markets.
While this can be a good strategy in a sideways or
bear market, this strategy
does not work too well for the option writer in situations such
as secular bull
markets involving rapidly rising stock values, or catalysts such
as analyst upgrades, surprising positive earnings or unanticipated positive business news etc..
I've been studying many of the historical
bear markets and corrections that don't get
as much publicity
as the usual suspects
Juicy Excerpt: The particular year in which the change from a secular
bear market to a secular bull
market takes place
does not matter
as much when it is the safe withdrawal rates that are being examined.
In fairness, Upgrading didn't hold up
as well during the 2008
bear market.
I've only lived through one
bear market as an «adult» so far, so I don't know if my methods will work.
The fair share concept is even more important in
bear markets when the stock
market generates a negative return year after year,
as it
did from 2000 — 02, losing 35 percent of its value, while the financial press continues to whisper in your ear, «You can
do better than that.»
The more I am around value equity investing, the more convinced I become that bargain purchases are created at least
as much by past prosperity for companies (which
does not get reflected in the
market price for a company's common stock)
as they are by
bear market.
We don't expect the next
bear market to be
as devastating.