Appreciable changes in climate are the result of changes in the energy balance of the Earth, which requires «external» forcings, such
as changes in solar output, albedo, and atmospheric greenhouse gases.
When scientists use climate models for attribution studies, they first run simulations with estimates of only «natural» climate influences over the past 100 years, such
as changes in solar output and major volcanic eruptions.
Not exact matches
In a recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters, Scafetta & West (S&W) estimate that as much as 25 - 35 % of the global warming in the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar outpu
In a recent paper
in Geophysical Research Letters, Scafetta & West (S&W) estimate that as much as 25 - 35 % of the global warming in the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar outpu
in Geophysical Research Letters, Scafetta & West (S&W) estimate that
as much
as 25 - 35 % of the global warming
in the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar outpu
in the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed
changes in the solar outpu
in the
solar output.
Periods of volcanism can cool the climate (
as with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological activity can warm the climate, and slight
changes in solar output and orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter
in duration than the ice age cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand years
in duration (the Younger Dryas).
However, there is significant debate
as to the cause of these D - O events, with
changes in solar output being just one possibility (NOAA Paleoclimatology).
Our Sun is a relatively stable star, but
changes in solar energy
output, such
as during massive
solar flares, can still have an impact.
The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition (the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane);
changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known
as Milankovitch cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion of tectonic plates resulting
in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which could affect wind and ocean currents; variations
in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth - Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
> Some of the «wiggles»
in temperature (such
as the Little Ice Age signal) correlate with
changes in solar output.
The key factor isn't
changes in solar output, but rather
changes in the sun's magnetosphere A stronger field shields the earth more from cosmic rays, which act
as «seeds» for cloud formation.
It's looking more and more like most climate
change can be pegged to
changes in solar output, either directly through additional warming or indirectly
as decreases
in solar output allow more cosmic rays to reach the atmosphere, causing increased cloud nucleation and therefore increasing the earth's albedo and reflecting more
solar radiation.
The RealClimate post on Polar Amplification... http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/polar-amplification/... begins with the statement, «' Polar amplification» usually refers to greater climate
change near the pole compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe
in response to a
change in global climate forcing, such
as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or
solar output (see e.g. Moritz et al 2002).»
We find that
changes in naturally occurring climate variability patterns can play a major role
in large regional
changes (especially cooling over North America and Europe
as solar output decreases).
The models currently assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable
changes in the various input and
output components can only occur from external forcing agents such
as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant
changes in solar power
output.
I have sought the best empirical evidence to show how
changes in incoming
solar radiation, accounted for by intrinsic
solar magnetic modulation of the irradiance
output as well
as planetary modulation of the seasonal distribution of sunlight, affects the thermal properties of land and sea, including temperatures.
How about this one, ««Polar amplification» usually refers to greater climate
change near the pole compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe
in response to a
change in global climate forcing, such
as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or
solar output (see e.g. Moritz et al 2002).
They concluded that with a bit of help from
changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such
as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the growth
in the volume of aerosols being pumped up power station chimneys was probably enough to block the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1998 - 2008.
They concluded that with a bit of help from
changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such
as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO),..
The IPCC reports document the plausible intrinsic
solar output increase of perhaps 0.12 W / m2 since 1750
as being the only significant natural agency
in terms of climate
change: if my calculations of the natural
changing insolation values are correct, then the IPCC is demonstrated to have erred
in that respect.
While I wouldn't think that many people here would be so obtuse
as to exclude
solar output in any climate equation, I would make note of the point that variances of
solar output are rarely discussed
in «warmer» circles
in relation to «Climate
Change».
The only thing that I would contend could be added would be long slow cumulative
changes in solar output other than raw TSI namely
changes in the mix of particles and wavelengths over longer periods of time such
as MWP to LIA to date and which seem to have some effect on surface pressure distribution and global albedo so
as to alter
solar shortwave into the oceans and thus affecting the energy available to the ENSO process.
Traditionally, climate - model projections have only accounted for external forcings, such
as man - made greenhouse gases, past volcanic eruptions and projected
changes in solar output.
As they stand at present the models assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power outpu
As they stand at present the models assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable
changes in the various input and
output components can only occur from external forcing agents such
as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power outpu
as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant
changes in solar power
output.
Any
change in net
solar power
output is relatively small
as Leif says and being a seperate issue apparently incapable of explaining observed variability
in the climate system.
I have previously described why the
solar effect on climate is not
as generally thought but for convenience I will summarise the issue here because it will help readers to follow the logic of the NCM.Variations
in total
solar power
output on timescales relevant to human existence are tiny and are generally countered by a miniscule
change in the speed of the hydrological cycle
as described above.
Computer models are an essential tool
in understanding how the climate will respond to
changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, and other external effects, such
as solar output and volcanoes.
Other than say a
change in solar output, or the Solary System moving from clear to dusty space (
as I think is expected
in a few millenia) what else do we know of
in nature that happens
as fast and persists
as long
as the rate of increase of anthropogenic GH gases?
Hi BigJon
Changes in solar output contributed perhaps
as much
as 50 % to the early 20th century warming.
Changes in solar output influence how much of the sun's energy the Earth's surface receives
as a whole; more or less
solar energy means warmer or cooler global climate.
While the Earth's atmosphere has seen higher levels of carbon dioxide than it does now,
as well
as higher temperatures and far greater sea levels, those instances were due to natural drivers of climate
change, such
as periodic variations
in the planet's orbit and
in solar energy
output.
«Polar amplification» usually refers to greater climate
change near the pole compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe
in response to a
change in global climate forcing, such
as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or
solar output (see e.g. Moritz et al 2002).